Stock Ratings / Technology / PRGS / earnings

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Progress Software Corporation (PRGS) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±8.1% Move

$44.93 +1.06% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $44.93

Progress Software Corporation (PRGS) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 66/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $1.84B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $44.93 (+0.00%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 23.5% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.0% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C+ · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for PRGS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (66/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY PRGS SCORES 66/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 23.5% FCF Margin ($229.5M FCF) & 80.8% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$39.33+3.8% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$40.84+13.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$46.45-3.3% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$44.93+1.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (58) → C+ (66)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the PRGS Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 66/100 (C+) score, PRGS faces multiple-compression risk if 25.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 78.3% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($41.82) or 200D SMA ($36.70) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($46.55) toward Bear Floor ($36.31).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $PRGS• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “PRGS Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”

YES 66%NO 34%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Nov 29, 2026 (~27 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±8.1% Swing Band

±$3.64 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

PRGS Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 66/100

Trailing EPS: $1.79 • YoY Revenue Growth: 29.8%

Model Bullish Setup (66/100)Model Risk Weight (34/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-11-30	$977.8M	$73.1M	$229.5M	80.8%
FY 2024	2024-11-30	$753.4M	$68.4M	$206.3M	82.7%
FY 2023	2023-11-30	$694.4M	$70.2M	$173.9M	80.8%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating PRGS & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on PRGS
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

PRGS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +61.33%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $45.12H $45.26L $44.45C $44.93VOL 301.9K

RES: $46.94SUP: $38.31SMA50: $41.82SMA200: $36.70

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

PRGS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 PRGS Butterfly Map → + Track PRGS →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

18.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +29.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on PRGS today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for PRGS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for PRGS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (PRGS)

Technology Rank #160 of 714 ⚔️ CNXC vs PRGS Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (PRGS vs. CNXC, NYAX, MQ, PDFS)

Industry: Computer Software: Prepackaged Software (222 Tracked Issuers)

Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Progress Software Corporation (PRGS) ranks #160 by composite RQD confidence (66/100, grade C+) and #305 by equity capitalization ($1.84B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PRGS leads on earnings valuation at 25.1x trailing P/E, while PRGS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 8.5% ROIC and 80.8% gross margin. PRGS currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 66/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
PRGS ACTIVE Progress Software Corporation	C+	66/100	25.1x	80.8%	8.5%	+1.06%	$1.84B	Benchmark Subject
CNXC Concentrix Corporation	D-	39/100	—	35.0%	-10.4%	-0.62%	$1.85B	/cnxc-vs-prgs →
NYAX Nayax Ltd.	D	51/100	—	—	—	-0.02%	$1.88B	/nyax-vs-prgs →
MQ Marqeta Inc. (Class A)	D	45/100	—	70.0%	-35.0%	-0.44%	$1.88B	/mq-vs-prgs →
PDFS PDF Solutions Inc.	D-	43/100	—	72.3%	1.6%	+0.15%	$1.92B	/pdfs-vs-prgs →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-11-30 • CIK 0000876167

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-11-30), Progress Software Corporation (PRGS) reported GAAP revenue of $977.8M (+29.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $753.4M , and +40.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $73.1M, operating cash flow of $235.2M, and free cash flow of $229.5M (+11.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, PRGS closed FY2025 with $2.46B in total assets against $1.04B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-11-30	$977.8M	$73.1M	$235.2M	$229.5M	$2.46B	$1.04B
FY2024 (FY)	2024-11-30	$753.4M	$68.4M	$211.5M	$206.3M	$2.53B	$1.53B
FY2023 (FY)	2023-11-30	$694.4M	$70.2M	$173.9M	$173.9M	—	—

3. PRGS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is PRGS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Progress Software Corporation (NASDAQ: PRGS) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 66/100 at a spot price of $44.93 (+1.06% 1D, market cap $1.84B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, PRGS ranks #160 in composite RQD confidence.

How does PRGS compare to CNXC and NYAX in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), PRGS carries a Roarable C+ (66/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 25.1x, gross margin of 80.8%, and ROIC of 8.5%. By comparison, CNXC (Concentrix Corporation) holds a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -10.4%, cap $1.85B) and NYAX (Nayax Ltd.) posts a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.88B). Among the 5-stock peer group, PRGS leads on earnings multiple (25.1x) while PRGS leads on capital efficiency (8.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PRGS?

Per PRGS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-11-30, CIK 0000876167), Progress Software Corporation generated $977.8M in revenue (+29.8% YoY), $73.1M in net income, and $229.5M in free cash flow against $2.46B in total assets and $1.04B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (81% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is PRGS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

PRGS last traded at $44.93 (+1.06% on volume of 347,221 shares), positioning the stock +7.44% above its 50-day simple moving average ($41.82) and +22.43% above its 200-day simple moving average ($36.70). Across its 52-week range of $23.82 to $47.25, PRGS sits at the 90.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 63.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.1% ($41.29 to $48.57).