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Phathom Pharmaceuticals Inc. (PHAT) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$6.22 -0.95% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.20

Phathom Pharmaceuticals Inc. (PHAT) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 46/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $503.2M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.20 (-0.36%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk C-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for PHAT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (46/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY PHAT SCORES 46/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (28% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 9% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 33.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (24% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$7.25-4.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$6.92-17.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$5.74+8.4% Next Q

Current

Grade D$6.22-6.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (54) → D (46)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a PHAT Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While PHAT currently carries a cautious 46/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($7.64) and Max Pain ($6.53) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $19.23.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $PHAT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “PHAT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 46%NO 54%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your PHAT Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $6.22: 1607.7 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $4.59

$7,379

$-2,621 (-26.2%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $5.88

$9,453

$-547 (-5.5%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $19.23

$30,916

+$20,916 (+209.2%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$6	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$18	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$5	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring PHAT)

✓Walkthrough of PHAT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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PHAT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -44.46%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $6.32H $6.32L $5.59C $6.22VOL 1.62M

RES: $6.89SUP: $4.63SMA50: $7.64SMA200: $10.44

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

PHAT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 PHAT Butterfly Map → + Track PHAT →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +180.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on PHAT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for PHAT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for PHAT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (PHAT)

Health Care Rank #449 of 1016 ⚔️ MPLT vs PHAT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (PHAT vs. MPLT, OVID, AQST, CTMX)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Phathom Pharmaceuticals Inc. (PHAT) ranks #449 by composite RQD confidence (46/100, grade D) and #450 by equity capitalization ($503.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PHAT leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while CTMX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -20.5% ROIC and — gross margin. PHAT currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 46/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
PHAT ACTIVE Phathom Pharmaceuticals Inc.	D	46/100	—	87.1%	-35.0%	-0.95%	$503.2M	Benchmark Subject
MPLT MapLight Therapeutics Inc.	D-	39/100	—	—	-32.4%	-3.26%	$500.1M	/mplt-vs-phat →
OVID Ovid Therapeutics Inc.	D-	40/100	—	—	-28.5%	+4.49%	$500.0M	/ovid-vs-phat →
AQST Aquestive Therapeutics Inc.	E	27/100	—	58.3%	-35.0%	-4.49%	$507.1M	/aqst-vs-phat →
CTMX CytomX Therapeutics Inc.	E	20/100	—	—	-20.5%	-2.97%	$499.0M	/ctmx-vs-phat →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001783183

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Phathom Pharmaceuticals Inc. (PHAT) reported GAAP revenue of $175.1M (+216.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $55.3M , and +25576.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$221.3K, operating cash flow of -$166.8M, and free cash flow of -$167.0M (+37.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, PHAT closed FY2025 with $259.1M in total assets against $209.1M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$175.1M	-$221.3K	-$166.8M	-$167.0M	$259.1M	$209.1M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$55.3M	-$334.3K	-$266.8M	-$266.9M	$378.3M	$201.4M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$682.0K	-$201.6K	-$137.6M	-$137.6M	—	—

3. PHAT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is PHAT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Phathom Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ: PHAT) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $6.22 (-0.95% 1D, market cap $503.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, PHAT ranks #449 in composite RQD confidence.

How does PHAT compare to MPLT and OVID in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), PHAT carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 87.1%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, MPLT (MapLight Therapeutics Inc.) holds a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -32.4%, cap $500.1M) and OVID (Ovid Therapeutics Inc.) posts a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -28.5%, cap $500.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, PHAT leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while CTMX leads on capital efficiency (-20.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for PHAT?

Per PHAT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001783183), Phathom Pharmaceuticals Inc. generated $175.1M in revenue (+216.9% YoY), -$221.3K in net income, and -$167.0M in free cash flow against $259.1M in total assets and $209.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is PHAT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

PHAT last traded at $6.22 (-0.95% on volume of 3,843,475 shares), positioning the stock -18.59% below its 50-day simple moving average ($7.64) and -40.42% below its 200-day simple moving average ($10.44). Across its 52-week range of $5.01 to $18.31, PHAT sits at the 9.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 33.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($5.44 to $7.00).

PHAT Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is PHAT's 12-month stock price target?

Phathom Pharmaceuticals Inc. (PHAT) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $5.88 (-5.5% from $6.22), with a bull-case target of $19.23 and a bear-case floor of $4.59.

Is PHAT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates PHAT D (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 46/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: PHAT RQD Cockpit PHAT 12M Forecast PHAT Earnings & Move PHAT Dividends & DRIP PHAT Insiders & 13F PHAT Whale Options PHAT Profit Sankey PHAT News & Why