MARKET WIREBenzinga • 2d ago
Barclays Maintains Overweight on Oatly Group, Lowers Price Target to $10Barclays analyst Andrew Lazar maintains Oatly Group (NASDAQ:OTLY) with a Overweight and lowers the price target from $13 to $10.
Why OTLY Stock dropped -6.54% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$8.00 -6.54% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.89
Oatly Group AB (OTLY) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 49/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID
Cap $255.3M
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Is OTLY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-01, Oatly Group AB (NASDAQ: OTLY) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 49/100 at a spot price of $8.00 (-6.54% 1D, market cap $255.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, OTLY ranks #94 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does OTLY compare to AFRI and LWAY in the Consumer Staples sector?
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Within the Consumer Staples sector (Packaged Foods), OTLY carries a Roarable D (49/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, AFRI (Forafric Global PLC) holds a E grade (21/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -16.5%, cap $340.6M) and LWAY (Lifeway Foods Inc.) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 25.3x, ROIC 15.9%, cap $350.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VITL leads on earnings multiple (6.0x) while VITL leads on capital efficiency (23.1% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OTLY?
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For Oatly Group AB (OTLY), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity. and sector rank #94 in Consumer Staples, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. and Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.89 (-1.37%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 0.2% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (49/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for OTLY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (49/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY OTLY SCORES 49/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (27% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (24% of score)
SEC XBRL Trailing 12 Months: 0.2% FCF Margin ($7.1M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C$10.59+6.2% Next Q
57
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C-$11.25+7.5% Next Q
54
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C-$12.09-33.8% Next Q
52
CurrentGrade D$8.00-5.4% Hist 90D α
49
Trajectory: C (57) → D (49)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a OTLY Turnaround Squeeze
While OTLY currently carries a cautious 49/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($12.19) and Max Pain ($8.40) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $17.01.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $OTLY• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “OTLY Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Upcoming Quarter) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why OTLY Stock dropped -6.54% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Oatly Group AB (OTLY) dropped -6.54% to $8.00, trading at 7% of its 52-week range ($7.38 – $16.2). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (steady margins) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 7% of its 52-week range ($7.38 – $16.2) with RSI-14 at 22.4 (OVERSOLD (<32)).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $8.00 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $7.1M annual free cash flow.
Live OTLY Headlines & Catalysts
RISK WATCHYahoo • 2d ago
Oatly (OTLY) Stock Sinks As Q3 Earnings Meet A Guidance CutOatly Group just reported Q3 2026 and the stock sold off fast. The share price closed at US$8, down 6.5% on the day, even though the company posted revenue of US$243.1m and swung to positive adjusted EBITDA of US$9.4m. T
MARKET WIRESeekingAlpha • 3d ago
Oatly Group AB 2026 Q3 - Results - Earnings Call Presentation2026-10-29. The following slide deck was published by Oatly Group AB in conjunction with their 2026 Q3 earnings call.
MARKET WIREBenzinga • 3d ago
BNP Paribas Maintains Outperform on Oatly Group, Lowers Price Target to $17BNP Paribas analyst Max Gumport maintains Oatly Group (NASDAQ:OTLY) with a Outperform and lowers the price target from $22 to $17.
RISK WATCHYahoo • 3d ago
Oatly cuts profit outlook on North America fuel cost pressuresThe Sweden-based oat-drinks maker now expects adjusted EBITDA of $16m to $20m, down from $25m to $35m.
CATALYSTYahoo • 3d ago
Oatly: 3 Key Takeaways for Long-Term InvestorsHigher-margin fiber drinks and retail shelf gains offer growth levers that could offset near-term logistics headwinds.
CATALYSTYahoo • 4d ago
Oatly (OTLY) Q3 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptRevenue grew 9.1% despite logistics headwinds forcing profit guidance lower.
MARKET WIREYahoo • 4d ago
What Oatly Group (OTLY) Said on Its Q3 Earnings CallOatly Group (NASDAQ:OTLY) reported third-quarter revenue growth and a return to positive adjusted EBITDA, while cutting its full-year adjusted EBITDA outlook as rising fuel and logistics costs in North America outpaced i
RISK WATCHYahoo • 4d ago
Oatly Q3 Revenue Rises 9.1% to $243.1 Million but Company Cuts Full-Year Profit OutlookOatly Group AB (NASDAQ:OTLY) reported a 9. 1% increase in third-quarter 2026 revenue to $243.
RISK WATCHSeekingAlpha • 4d ago
Oatly Group AB (OTLY) Q3 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptOatly Group AB (OTLY) Q3 2026 Earnings Call October 28, 2026 8:00 AM EDTCompany ParticipantsJohn BaumgartnerJean-Christophe Flatin - Chief Executive...
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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring OTLY)
- ✓Walkthrough of OTLY's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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OTLY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -26.40%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN
2026-10-30O $8.00H $8.00L $7.38C $8.00VOL 264.5K
RES: $13.12SUP: $9.27SMA50: $12.19SMA200: $11.31
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
OTLY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on OTLY today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for OTLY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for OTLY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (OTLY)
Consumer Staples Rank #94 of 146
⚔️ AFRI vs OTLY Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (OTLY vs. AFRI, LWAY, BGS, VITL)
Industry: Packaged Foods (41 Tracked Issuers)Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Oatly Group AB (OTLY) ranks #94 by composite RQD confidence (49/100, grade D) and #96 by equity capitalization ($255.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, VITL leads on earnings valuation at 6.0x trailing P/E, while VITL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 23.1% ROIC and 37.6% gross margin. LWAY currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 59/100 (C-) compared with OTLY at 49/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTLY
ACTIVE
Oatly Group AB | D | 49/100 | — | — | — | -6.54% | $255.3M | Benchmark Subject |
| AFRI Forafric Global PLC | E | 21/100 | — | 10.4% | -16.5% | -0.08% | $340.6M | /afri-vs-otly → |
| LWAY Lifeway Foods Inc. | C- | 59/100 | 25.3x | 27.4% | 15.9% | +1.84% | $350.8M | /lway-vs-otly → |
| BGS B&G Foods Inc. | D | 45/100 | — | 21.8% | 3.3% | +9.71% | $183.7M | /bgs-vs-otly → |
| VITL Vital Farms Inc. | D | 48/100 | 6.0x | 37.6% | 23.1% | +0.43% | $398.8M | /vitl-vs-otly → |
2. OTLY Fundamental Profitability, Capital Efficiency & Balance-Sheet Forensics
TRAILING 12M & FORWARD QUANTITATIVE SNAPSHOTOatly Group AB (OTLY) operates in Packaged Foods (Consumer Staples) with an equity capitalization of $255.3M, trailing P/E of N/A, forward P/E of N/A, and EV/EBITDA of N/A. Operating profitability registers a gross margin of —, operating margin of —, net profit margin of —, ROIC of —, and free cash flow yield of —, alongside an Altman Z-Score of N/A and Piotroski F-Score of N/A.
3. OTLY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs OTLY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Oatly Group AB (NASDAQ: OTLY) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 49/100 at a spot price of $8.00 (-6.54% 1D, market cap $255.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, OTLY ranks #94 in composite RQD confidence.
How does OTLY compare to AFRI and LWAY in the Consumer Staples sector?
Within the Consumer Staples sector (Packaged Foods), OTLY carries a Roarable D (49/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, AFRI (Forafric Global PLC) holds a E grade (21/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -16.5%, cap $340.6M) and LWAY (Lifeway Foods Inc.) posts a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 25.3x, ROIC 15.9%, cap $350.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, VITL leads on earnings multiple (6.0x) while VITL leads on capital efficiency (23.1% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OTLY?
For Oatly Group AB (OTLY), key quantitative strengths include Established market leader in Consumer Staples with deep daily trading liquidity. and sector rank #94 in Consumer Staples, while primary risk factors center on Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately. and Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is OTLY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
OTLY last traded at $8.00 (-6.54% on volume of 474,426 shares), positioning the stock -34.37% below its 50-day simple moving average ($12.19) and -29.27% below its 200-day simple moving average ($11.31). Across its 52-week range of $7.38 to $16.20, OTLY sits at the 7.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 22.4 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($7.00 to $9.00).
OTLY Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is OTLY stock moving today?
Why OTLY Stock dropped -6.54% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (steady margins) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.