Stock Ratings / Industrials / ORN / financials

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Orion Group Holdings Inc. Common (ORN) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$9.11 +9.76% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.25

Orion Group Holdings Inc. Common (ORN) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 50/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $370.4M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.25 (+1.57%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 50/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.3% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk C+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.6% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ORN)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (50/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY ORN SCORES 50/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (32% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.05 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (24% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±11.7% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$9.15-6.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$8.52+2.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$8.71+4.6% Next Q

Current

Grade D$9.11-1.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (58) → D (50)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ORN Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While ORN currently carries a cautious 50/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($8.98) and Max Pain ($9.57) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $18.27.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ORN• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “ORN Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 50%NO 50%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How ORN Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $711.8M

FY24

Rev $796.4M

FY25

Rev $852.3M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$852.3M	12.4%	1.7%	$2.5M	-$10.8M	7.1%
FY 2024	$796.4M	11.4%	1.4%	-$1.6M	-$1.4M	6.3%
FY 2023	$711.8M	12.4%	-0.9%	-$17.9M	$17.2M	7.1%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ORN)

✓Walkthrough of ORN's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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ORN // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -33.11%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $8.69H $9.11L $8.10C $9.11VOL 691.9K

RES: $9.78SUP: $8.05SMA50: $8.98SMA200: $11.83

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

ORN Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 ORN Butterfly Map → + Track ORN →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

48.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +7.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ORN today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ORN. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ORN today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ORN)

Industrials Rank #304 of 485 ⚔️ LEGO vs ORN Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (ORN vs. LEGO, XTND, PKE, CDNL)

Industry: Military/Government/Technical (43 Tracked Issuers)

Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Orion Group Holdings Inc. Common (ORN) ranks #304 by composite RQD confidence (50/100, grade D) and #315 by equity capitalization ($370.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CDNL leads on earnings valuation at 33.7x trailing P/E, while CDNL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 54.6% ROIC and — gross margin. PKE currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with ORN at 50/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
ORN ACTIVE Orion Group Holdings Inc. Common	D	50/100	148.9x	12.4%	7.1%	+9.76%	$370.4M	Benchmark Subject
LEGO Legato Merger Corp. IV	D	50/100	—	—	—	+0.10%	$302.8M	/lego-vs-orn →
XTND Xtend AI Robotics Inc.	D	49/100	—	—	—	-3.47%	$475.7M	/xtnd-vs-orn →
PKE Park Aerospace Corp.	C+	67/100	—	30.9%	19.0%	+1.34%	$584.9M	/pke-vs-orn →
CDNL Cardinal Infrastructure Group Inc. (Class A)	D+	55/100	33.7x	—	54.6%	+1.51%	$765.5M	/cdnl-vs-orn →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001402829

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Orion Group Holdings Inc. Common (ORN) reported GAAP revenue of $852.3M (+7.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $796.4M , and +19.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $2.5M, operating cash flow of $28.1M, and free cash flow of -$10.8M (-663.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, ORN closed FY2025 with $414.7M in total assets against $6.1M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 3.05, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$852.3M	$2.5M	$28.1M	-$10.8M	$414.7M	$6.1M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$796.4M	-$1.6M	$12.7M	-$1.4M	$417.3M	$22.8M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$711.8M	-$17.9M	$17.2M	$17.2M	—	—

3. ORN Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is ORN stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Orion Group Holdings Inc. Common (NYSE: ORN) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 50/100 at a spot price of $9.11 (+9.76% 1D, market cap $370.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, ORN ranks #304 in composite RQD confidence.

How does ORN compare to LEGO and XTND in the Industrials sector?

Within the Industrials sector (Military/Government/Technical), ORN carries a Roarable D (50/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 148.9x, gross margin of 12.4%, and ROIC of 7.1%. By comparison, LEGO (Legato Merger Corp. IV) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $302.8M) and XTND (Xtend AI Robotics Inc.) posts a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $475.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CDNL leads on earnings multiple (33.7x) while CDNL leads on capital efficiency (54.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ORN?

Per ORN's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001402829), Orion Group Holdings Inc. Common generated $852.3M in revenue (+7.0% YoY), $2.5M in net income, and -$10.8M in free cash flow against $414.7M in total assets and $6.1M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Clean SEC annual filing review with no major hidden accounting time-bombs.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is ORN trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

ORN last traded at $9.11 (+9.76% on volume of 1,141,991 shares), positioning the stock +1.45% above its 50-day simple moving average ($8.98) and -22.99% below its 200-day simple moving average ($11.83). Across its 52-week range of $8.10 to $17.40, ORN sits at the 10.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.7% ($8.04 to $10.18).

ORN Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Orion Group Holdings Inc. Common (ORN)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), ORN converted $852.3M of revenue into a 12.4% gross margin, 1.7% operating margin, and $0 in free cash flow (0% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: ORN RQD Cockpit ORN 12M Forecast ORN Earnings & Move ORN Dividends & DRIP ORN Insiders & 13F ORN Whale Options ORN Profit Sankey ORN News & Why