MARKET WIREReuters • 46m ago
Iranians have left Doha talks, draft proposal for US deal being circulated, official says - ReutersIranians have left Doha talks, draft proposal for US deal being circulated, official says Reuters
Why ONL Stock dropped -4.92% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$2.32 -4.92% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.30
Orion Properties Inc. (ONL) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 42/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D- • SELL / AVOID
Cap $132.3M
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief)
Is ONL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-02, Orion Properties Inc. (NYSE: ONL) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 42/100 at a spot price of $2.32 (-4.92% 1D, market cap $132.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, ONL ranks #914 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does ONL compare to NLOP and EARN in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), ONL carries a Roarable D- (42/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -22.4%. By comparison, NLOP (Net Lease Office Properties of) holds a E grade (30/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $134.8M) and EARN (Ellington Credit Company of) posts a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 20.8x, ROIC 3.4%, cap $136.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SEVN leads on earnings multiple (9.8x) while STRW leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ONL?
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Per ONL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001873923), Orion Properties Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$139.3M in net income, and $23.6M in free cash flow against $1.17B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.29 (-1.08%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (42/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D-
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-7.3% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for ONL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (42/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY ONL SCORES 42/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (24% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+10/20 pts (24% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 50% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade E$2.15-8.8% Next Q
34
Q2 (-2Q)Grade E$1.96+14.8% Next Q
37
Q3 (-1Q)Grade E$2.25+3.1% Next Q
39
CurrentGrade D-$2.32-7% Hist 90D α
42
Trajectory: E (34) → D- (42)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a ONL Turnaround Squeeze
While ONL currently carries a cautious 42/100 (D-) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.44) and Max Pain ($2.44) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $3.20.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $ONL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “ONL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why ONL Stock dropped -4.92% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Orion Properties Inc. (ONL) dropped -4.92% to $2.32, trading at 37% of its 52-week range ($1.89 – $3.05). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-22% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 37% of its 52-week range ($1.89 – $3.05) with RSI-14 at 50.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±10.3% around $2.32 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $23.6M annual free cash flow.
Live ONL Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREReuters • 2h ago
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MARKET WIREReuters • 3h ago
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MARKET WIREReuters • 4h ago
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MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
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MARKET WIREReuters • 8h ago
Reliance earnings, lower oil prices power India's Sensex to near two-month high - ReutersReliance earnings, lower oil prices power India's Sensex to near two-month high Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 10h ago
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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring ONL)
- ✓Walkthrough of ONL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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ONL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -19.16%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-11-02O $2.44H $2.44L $2.32C $2.32VOL 658.2K
RES: $3.07SUP: $1.85SMA50: $2.44SMA200: $2.56
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
ONL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on ONL today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for ONL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for ONL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (ONL)
Financials Rank #914 of 1096
⚔️ NLOP vs ONL Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (ONL vs. NLOP, EARN, SEVN, STRW)
Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Orion Properties Inc. (ONL) ranks #914 by composite RQD confidence (42/100, grade D-) and #936 by equity capitalization ($132.3M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SEVN leads on earnings valuation at 9.8x trailing P/E, while STRW leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. STRW currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 63/100 (C) compared with ONL at 42/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONL
ACTIVE
Orion Properties Inc. | D- | 42/100 | — | — | -22.4% | -4.92% | $132.3M | Benchmark Subject |
| NLOP Net Lease Office Properties of | E | 30/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -1.09% | $134.8M | /nlop-vs-onl → |
| EARN Ellington Credit Company of | D+ | 58/100 | 20.8x | — | 3.4% | -2.15% | $136.7M | /earn-vs-onl → |
| SEVN Seven Hills Realty Trust | D | 48/100 | 9.8x | — | 4.7% | -0.45% | $150.9M | /sevn-vs-onl → |
| STRW Strawberry Fields REIT Inc. | C | 63/100 | 23.5x | — | 85.0% | +1.37% | $178.1M | /strw-vs-onl → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001873923In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Orion Properties Inc. (ONL) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$139.3M, operating cash flow of $23.6M, and free cash flow of $23.6M (-56.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, ONL closed FY2025 with $1.17B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | -$139.3M | $23.6M | $23.6M | $1.17B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | -$103.0M | $54.3M | $54.3M | $1.34B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $0 | -$57.3M | $89.1M | $89.1M | — | — |
3. ONL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs ONL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-02, Orion Properties Inc. (NYSE: ONL) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 42/100 at a spot price of $2.32 (-4.92% 1D, market cap $132.3M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, ONL ranks #914 in composite RQD confidence.
How does ONL compare to NLOP and EARN in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), ONL carries a Roarable D- (42/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -22.4%. By comparison, NLOP (Net Lease Office Properties of) holds a E grade (30/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $134.8M) and EARN (Ellington Credit Company of) posts a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 20.8x, ROIC 3.4%, cap $136.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, SEVN leads on earnings multiple (9.8x) while STRW leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for ONL?
Per ONL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001873923), Orion Properties Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$139.3M in net income, and $23.6M in free cash flow against $1.17B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is ONL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
ONL last traded at $2.32 (-4.92% on volume of 658,197 shares), positioning the stock -4.92% below its 50-day simple moving average ($2.44) and -9.38% below its 200-day simple moving average ($2.56). Across its 52-week range of $1.89 to $3.05, ONL sits at the 37.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 50.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.3% ($2.08 to $2.56).
ONL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is ONL stock moving today?
Why ONL Stock dropped -4.92% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-22% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.