MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why OCSL Stock surged +2.80% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$12.13 +2.80% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.17
Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation (OCSL) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 66/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $1.07B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.17 (+0.31%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 5.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 66/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.0% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk B
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+3.6% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for OCSL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.6%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (66/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY OCSL SCORES 66/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+16/20 pts (24% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 45% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 58.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (20% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±4.6% realized swing band)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution12/20 pts (-8 pt drag)
Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 8 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C$11.60-0.3% Next Q
58
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C$11.57-1.1% Next Q
61
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C+$11.44+6% Next Q
63
CurrentGrade C+$12.13+1.4% Hist 90D α
66
Trajectory: C (58) → C+ (66)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the OCSL Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 66/100 (C+) score, OCSL faces multiple-compression risk if 31.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($12.23) or 200D SMA ($12.08) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($12.57) toward Bear Floor ($9.80).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $OCSL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “OCSL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why OCSL Stock surged +2.80% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation (OCSL) surged +2.80% to $12.13, trading at 45% of its 52-week range ($10.63 – $13.94). Solid steady margins (2% return on capital), mixed timing at 32x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 45% of its 52-week range ($10.63 – $13.94) with RSI-14 at 58.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±4.6% around $12.13 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C+ (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $228.4M annual free cash flow.
Live OCSL Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (OCSL Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
OCSL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -3.88%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $12.24H $12.24L $12.00C $12.13VOL 439.0K
RES: $13.44SUP: $11.15SMA50: $12.23SMA200: $12.08
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
OCSL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
24.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on OCSL today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for OCSL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for OCSL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (OCSL)
Financials Rank #284 of 1096
⚔️ PICS vs OCSL Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (OCSL vs. PICS, RHLD, WD, PSEC)
Industry: Finance: Consumer Services (156 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation (OCSL) ranks #284 by composite RQD confidence (66/100, grade C+) and #539 by equity capitalization ($1.07B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, WD leads on earnings valuation at 21.2x trailing P/E, while RHLD leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. RHLD currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with OCSL at 66/100 (C+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OCSL
ACTIVE
Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation | C+ | 66/100 | 31.5x | — | 2.4% | +2.80% | $1.07B | Benchmark Subject |
| PICS PicS N.V. (Class A) | D | 51/100 | — | — | — | -0.51% | $1.02B | /pics-vs-ocsl → |
| RHLD Resolute Holdings Management | B | 72/100 | — | — | 85.0% | +0.32% | $977.9M | /rhld-vs-ocsl → |
| WD Walker & Dunlop Inc | D+ | 53/100 | 21.2x | — | 3.2% | +1.40% | $1.19B | /wd-vs-ocsl → |
| PSEC Prospect Capital Corporation | D | 50/100 | — | — | -16.6% | +6.58% | $864.8M | /psec-vs-ocsl → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0001414932In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation (OCSL) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $33.9M, operating cash flow of $228.4M, and free cash flow of $228.4M (+1097.2% YoY). On the balance sheet, OCSL closed FY2025 with $3.10B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-09-30 | $0 | $33.9M | $228.4M | $228.4M | $3.10B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-09-30 | $0 | $57.9M | $19.1M | $19.1M | $3.08B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-09-30 | $0 | $117.3M | $228.8M | $228.8M | — | — |
3. OCSL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs OCSL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation (NASDAQ: OCSL) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 66/100 at a spot price of $12.13 (+2.80% 1D, market cap $1.07B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, OCSL ranks #284 in composite RQD confidence.
How does OCSL compare to PICS and RHLD in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), OCSL carries a Roarable C+ (66/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 31.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 2.4%. By comparison, PICS (PicS N.V. (Class A)) holds a D grade (51/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.02B) and RHLD (Resolute Holdings Management) posts a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 85.0%, cap $977.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, WD leads on earnings multiple (21.2x) while RHLD leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OCSL?
Per OCSL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001414932), Oaktree Specialty Lending Corporation generated $0 in revenue, $33.9M in net income, and $228.4M in free cash flow against $3.10B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is OCSL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
OCSL last traded at $12.13 (+2.80% on volume of 378,883 shares), positioning the stock -0.82% below its 50-day simple moving average ($12.23) and +0.41% above its 200-day simple moving average ($12.08). Across its 52-week range of $10.63 to $13.94, OCSL sits at the 45.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 58.8 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.6% ($11.57 to $12.69).
OCSL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is OCSL stock moving today?
Why OCSL Stock surged +2.80% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid steady margins (2% return on capital), mixed timing at 32x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.