Stock Ratings / Health Care / OBIO / financials

TLRY (32) SNDL (61) CGC (51) USNA (61) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Orchestra BioMed Holdings Inc. (OBIO) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

Q: Is OBIO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Orchestra BioMed Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: OBIO) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 28/100 at a spot price of $6.09 (+1.67% 1D, market cap $366.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, OBIO ranks #965 in composite RQD confidence.

Q: How does OBIO compare to TLRY and SNDL in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Medicinal Chemicals and Botanical Products), OBIO carries a Roarable E (28/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 96.0%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, TLRY (Tilray Brands Inc.) holds a E grade (32/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -3.9%, cap $390.2M) and SNDL (SNDL Inc.) posts a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $316.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, USNA leads on earnings multiple (24.6x) while USNA leads on capital efficiency (7.9% ROIC).

Q: What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OBIO?

Per OBIO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001814114), Orchestra BioMed Holdings Inc. generated $33.5M in revenue (+1169.2% YoY), -$52.7M in net income, and -$49.5M in free cash flow against $114.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Q: Where is OBIO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

OBIO last traded at $6.09 (+1.67% on volume of 274,571 shares), positioning the stock +6.84% above its 50-day simple moving average ($5.70) and +34.44% above its 200-day simple moving average ($4.53). Across its 52-week range of $3.46 to $6.50, OBIO sits at the 86.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 53.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.1% ($5.35 to $6.83).

Q: How profitable is Orchestra BioMed Holdings Inc. (OBIO)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), OBIO converted $33.5M of revenue into a 99.4% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $0 in free cash flow (0% FCF margin).

$6.09 +1.67% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.10

Orchestra BioMed Holdings Inc. (OBIO) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 28/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (28/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $366.0M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $6.10 (+0.11%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (28/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-10.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-13.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for OBIO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (28/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY OBIO SCORES 28/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+8/20 pts (29% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.1% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+8/20 pts (29% of score)

Altman Z-Score 0.20 (DISTRESS RISK (<1.8)) • Piotroski F-Score 5/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$5.95-8.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$5.45+2.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$5.59+8.9% Next Q

Current

Grade E$6.09-10% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (20) → E (28)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a OBIO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While OBIO currently carries a cautious 28/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($5.70) and Max Pain ($6.39) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $6.83.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $OBIO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “OBIO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 28%NO 72%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How OBIO Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $2.8M

FY24

Rev $2.6M

FY25

Rev $33.5M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$33.5M	98%	-80%	-$52.7M	-$49.5M	-45%
FY 2024	$2.6M	92.3%	-80%	-$61.0M	-$50.8M	-45%
FY 2023	$2.8M	92%	-80%	-$49.1M	-$46.1M	-35%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring OBIO)

✓Walkthrough of OBIO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

OBIO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +52.63%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $6.07H $6.09L $5.84C $6.09VOL 232.4K

RES: $7.15SUP: $3.35SMA50: $5.70SMA200: $4.53

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

OBIO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 OBIO Butterfly Map → + Track OBIO →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +180.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on OBIO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for OBIO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for OBIO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (OBIO)

Health Care Rank #965 of 1016 ⚔️ TLRY vs OBIO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (OBIO vs. TLRY, SNDL, CGC, USNA)

Industry: Medicinal Chemicals and Botanical Products (24 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Orchestra BioMed Holdings Inc. (OBIO) ranks #965 by composite RQD confidence (28/100, grade E) and #495 by equity capitalization ($366.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, USNA leads on earnings valuation at 24.6x trailing P/E, while USNA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 7.9% ROIC and 78.3% gross margin. SNDL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 61/100 (C-) compared with OBIO at 28/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
OBIO ACTIVE Orchestra BioMed Holdings Inc.	E	28/100	—	96.0%	-35.0%	+1.67%	$366.0M	Benchmark Subject
TLRY Tilray Brands Inc.	E	32/100	—	28.4%	-3.9%	-1.86%	$390.2M	/tlry-vs-obio →
SNDL SNDL Inc.	C-	61/100	—	—	—	+0.78%	$316.3M	/sndl-vs-obio →
CGC Canopy Growth Corporation	D	51/100	—	—	—	+0.46%	$285.6M	/cgc-vs-obio →
USNA USANA Health Sciences Inc.	C-	61/100	24.6x	78.3%	7.9%	-1.91%	$265.0M	/usna-vs-obio →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001814114

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Orchestra BioMed Holdings Inc. (OBIO) reported GAAP revenue of $33.5M (+1169.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.6M , and +1113.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$52.7M, operating cash flow of -$49.0M, and free cash flow of -$49.5M (+2.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, OBIO closed FY2025 with $114.9M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$33.5M	-$52.7M	-$49.0M	-$49.5M	$114.9M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$2.6M	-$61.0M	-$50.6M	-$50.8M	$76.2M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$2.8M	-$49.1M	-$46.1M	-$46.1M	—	—

3. OBIO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is OBIO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Orchestra BioMed Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: OBIO) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 28/100 at a spot price of $6.09 (+1.67% 1D, market cap $366.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, OBIO ranks #965 in composite RQD confidence.

How does OBIO compare to TLRY and SNDL in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Medicinal Chemicals and Botanical Products), OBIO carries a Roarable E (28/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 96.0%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, TLRY (Tilray Brands Inc.) holds a E grade (32/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -3.9%, cap $390.2M) and SNDL (SNDL Inc.) posts a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $316.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, USNA leads on earnings multiple (24.6x) while USNA leads on capital efficiency (7.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for OBIO?

Per OBIO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001814114), Orchestra BioMed Holdings Inc. generated $33.5M in revenue (+1169.2% YoY), -$52.7M in net income, and -$49.5M in free cash flow against $114.9M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is OBIO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

OBIO last traded at $6.09 (+1.67% on volume of 274,571 shares), positioning the stock +6.84% above its 50-day simple moving average ($5.70) and +34.44% above its 200-day simple moving average ($4.53). Across its 52-week range of $3.46 to $6.50, OBIO sits at the 86.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 53.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.1% ($5.35 to $6.83).

OBIO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Orchestra BioMed Holdings Inc. (OBIO)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), OBIO converted $33.5M of revenue into a 99.4% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $0 in free cash flow (0% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: OBIO RQD Cockpit OBIO 12M Forecast OBIO Earnings & Move OBIO Dividends & DRIP OBIO Insiders & 13F OBIO Whale Options OBIO Profit Sankey OBIO News & Why