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Tilray Brands Inc. (TLRY) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

Q: Should I buy, hold, or sell TLRY stock right now?

Tilray Brands Inc. (TLRY) currently earns a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell — SELL) with 32/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-4% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

Q: What is TLRY's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

TLRY's 12-month base price target is $2.33 (range $1.82 to $16.48), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

$2.64 -1.86% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.63

Tilray Brands Inc. (TLRY) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 32/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (32/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE E • RED ALERT Cap $390.2M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.63 (-0.52%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (32/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-9.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-11.7% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for TLRY)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.9%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (32/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY TLRY SCORES 32/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (31% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 2% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 18.4 (OVERSOLD (<32))

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+9/20 pts (28% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±10.9% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$3.54-14.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$3.04-7.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$2.81-6% Next Q

Current

Grade E$2.64-9.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (40) → E (32)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a TLRY Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While TLRY currently carries a cautious 32/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.79) and Max Pain ($2.77) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $16.48.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $TLRY• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “TLRY Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Nov 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 32%NO 68%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMOVERSOLD (<32)

18.430 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDDISTRESS RISK (<1.8)

0.20>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

5 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE2% OF RANGE

L: $2$2.64H: $16

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 2 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: ERQD 12 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 18 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on TLRY

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (15)

-3.9% ROIC with 28.4% gross margin and -17.72% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (40)

Altman-Z 0.20 and Piotroski 5/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (37)

12/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 10/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like TLRY

✓Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring TLRY)

✓Walkthrough of TLRY's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

TLRY // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -57.69%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $2.65H $2.67L $2.49C $2.64VOL 4.93M

RES: $4.36SUP: $1.72SMA50: $3.79SMA200: $5.47

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

TLRY Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 TLRY Butterfly Map → + Track TLRY →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +11.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on TLRY today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for TLRY. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for TLRY today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (TLRY)

Health Care Rank #888 of 1016 ⚔️ OBIO vs TLRY Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (TLRY vs. OBIO, SNDL, CGC, USNA)

Industry: Medicinal Chemicals and Botanical Products (24 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Tilray Brands Inc. (TLRY) ranks #888 by composite RQD confidence (32/100, grade E) and #484 by equity capitalization ($390.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, USNA leads on earnings valuation at 24.6x trailing P/E, while USNA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 7.9% ROIC and 78.3% gross margin. SNDL currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 61/100 (C-) compared with TLRY at 32/100 (E).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
TLRY ACTIVE Tilray Brands Inc.	E	32/100	—	28.4%	-3.9%	-1.86%	$390.2M	Benchmark Subject
OBIO Orchestra BioMed Holdings Inc.	E	28/100	—	96.0%	-35.0%	+1.67%	$366.0M	/obio-vs-tlry →
SNDL SNDL Inc.	C-	61/100	—	—	—	+0.78%	$316.3M	/sndl-vs-tlry →
CGC Canopy Growth Corporation	D	51/100	—	—	—	+0.46%	$285.6M	/cgc-vs-tlry →
USNA USANA Health Sciences Inc.	C-	61/100	24.6x	78.3%	7.9%	-1.91%	$265.0M	/usna-vs-tlry →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2026-05-31 • CIK 0001731348

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2026-05-31), Tilray Brands Inc. (TLRY) reported GAAP revenue of $915.5M (+11.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $821.3M , and +16.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$121.4M, operating cash flow of -$69.1M, and free cash flow of -$69.1M (+26.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, TLRY closed FY2025 with $2.07B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.20, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2026-05-31	$915.5M	-$121.4M	-$69.1M	-$69.1M	$2.07B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2025-05-31	$821.3M	-$2.19B	-$94.6M	-$94.6M	$3.40B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2024-05-31	$788.9M	-$245.0M	-$30.9M	-$30.9M	—	—

3. TLRY Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is TLRY stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Tilray Brands Inc. (NASDAQ: TLRY) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 32/100 at a spot price of $2.64 (-1.86% 1D, market cap $390.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, TLRY ranks #888 in composite RQD confidence.

How does TLRY compare to OBIO and SNDL in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Medicinal Chemicals and Botanical Products), TLRY carries a Roarable E (32/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 28.4%, and ROIC of -3.9%. By comparison, OBIO (Orchestra BioMed Holdings Inc.) holds a E grade (28/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $366.0M) and SNDL (SNDL Inc.) posts a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $316.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, USNA leads on earnings multiple (24.6x) while USNA leads on capital efficiency (7.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for TLRY?

Per TLRY's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2026-05-31, CIK 0001731348), Tilray Brands Inc. generated $915.5M in revenue (+11.5% YoY), -$121.4M in net income, and -$69.1M in free cash flow against $2.07B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is TLRY trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

TLRY last traded at $2.64 (-1.86% on volume of 4,210,125 shares), positioning the stock -30.34% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.79) and -51.74% below its 200-day simple moving average ($5.47). Across its 52-week range of $2.49 to $15.70, TLRY sits at the 1.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 18.4 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.9% ($2.35 to $2.93).

TLRY Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell TLRY stock right now?

Tilray Brands Inc. (TLRY) currently earns a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell — SELL) with 32/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-4% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is TLRY's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

TLRY's 12-month base price target is $2.33 (range $1.82 to $16.48), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: TLRY RQD Cockpit TLRY 12M Forecast TLRY Earnings & Move TLRY Dividends & DRIP TLRY Insiders & 13F TLRY Whale Options TLRY Profit Sankey TLRY News & Why