NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials
NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 70/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (75% profit margin, 65% return on capital) with steady institutional support. Even if the broader market gets choppy, the company’s underlying cash engine and big-money support put the odds in buyers’ favor.
How NVDA Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit
Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory
| Fiscal Year | Revenue | Gross Margin | Op Margin | Net Profit | Free Cash Flow | ROIC % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY 2026 | $215.94B | 71.1% | 60.4% | $120.07B | $96.68B | 66.4% |
| FY 2025 | $130.50B | 75% | 62.4% | $72.88B | $60.85B | 81.3% |
| FY 2024 | $60.92B | 72.7% | 54.1% | $29.76B | $27.02B | 57.4% |
| FY 2023 | $26.97B | 56.9% | 15.7% | $4.37B | $3.81B | 11.3% |
| FY 2022 | $26.91B | 64.9% | 37.3% | $9.75B | $8.13B | 22.3% |
| FY 2021 | $16.68B | 62.3% | 27.2% | $4.33B | $5.82B | 15.6% |
NVIDIA's FY2026 10-K (accession 0001045810-26-000021) reflects escalating exposure across manufacturing bottlenecks, customer concentration, and counterparty credit risks. Management introduced explicit disclosures targeting systemic counterparty failure and modified customer concentration language to cover indirect purchasing conduits, pointing to severe margin and revenue vulnerability if top hyperscalers cut capex or supply chain capacity fractures. The net forensic shift indicates elevated structural risks masked by top-line growth rates.
Legal widened the risk perimeter from direct 'end customers' to include complex 'indirect' purchasing channels (OEMs, ODMs, and cloud consortiums). This confirms NVIDIA's top-line is increasingly exposed to intermediary balance-sheet bottlenecks and hyperscaler capex revisions hidden behind tier-1 integrator purchasing structures.
Management inserted a standalone risk factor explicitly warning of counterparty default. With multi-billion dollar non-cancelable purchase commitments across TSMC packaging and HBM suppliers (Micron/SK Hynix) alongside massive prepayments, NVDA is signaling uncollectible receivables, customer financing strain, or supplier non-performance risks.
Substituting 'component availability' with 'capacity availability' shifts the operational constraint from discrete parts shortages to structural fab and advanced packaging (CoWoS/wafer-level) throughput caps at TSMC. NVDA is unable to flex output quickly if demand spikes or contracts, exacerbating inventory write-downs or unfulfilled hyperscaler order liabilities.
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NVDA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
SEC XBRL FY2025 → FY2026: Net share cannibal / buyback tailwind.
vs. +83.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Trigger: $211.19 • Invalidation: $192.77
NVDA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDHow profitable is NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA)?
In FY 2026 (10-K), NVDA converted $215.9B of revenue into a 71.1% gross margin, 60.4% operating margin, and $96.7B in free cash flow (44.8% FCF margin).