Stock Ratings / Materials / NVA / insiders

PLG (50) TMCR (56) GLDG (56) SBMT (50) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Nova Minerals Corp (NVA) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$3.50 +1.45% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.50

Nova Minerals Corp (NVA) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 49/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (49/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $133.7M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $3.50 (+0.07%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (49/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NVA)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (49/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY NVA SCORES 49/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (24% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 7% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 44.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$4.86-35.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$3.13-8.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$2.87+22% Next Q

Current

Grade D$3.50-5.4% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (57) → D (49)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a NVA Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While NVA currently carries a cautious 49/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($5.02) and Max Pain ($3.68) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $12.74.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NVA• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “NVA Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 28, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 49%NO 51%Trade / Inspect Odds →

SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

NVA Smart-Money Thermometer: NET EXECUTIVE TRIMMING / PROFIT-TAKING

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →

▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (NVA)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on NVA. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NVA)

✓Walkthrough of NVA's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

NVA // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -39.97%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $3.33H $3.93L $3.28C $3.50VOL 1.23M

RES: $5.55SUP: $2.65SMA50: $5.02SMA200: $6.00

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NVA Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NVA Butterfly Map → + Track NVA →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NVA today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NVA. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NVA today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NVA)

Materials Rank #173 of 270 ⚔️ PLG vs NVA Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Materials Peer Comparison (NVA vs. PLG, TMCR, GLDG, SBMT)

Industry: Precious Metals (74 Tracked Issuers)

Across 270 tracked Materials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Nova Minerals Corp (NVA) ranks #173 by composite RQD confidence (49/100, grade D) and #221 by equity capitalization ($133.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NVA leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while NVA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with — ROIC and — gross margin. TMCR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 56/100 (D+) compared with NVA at 49/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
NVA ACTIVE Nova Minerals Corp	D	49/100	—	—	—	+1.45%	$133.7M	Benchmark Subject
PLG Platinum Group Metals Ltd. (Canada)	D	50/100	—	—	—	-1.83%	$136.8M	/plg-vs-nva →
TMCR The Metals Royalty Company Inc.	D+	56/100	—	—	—	-3.27%	$139.5M	/tmcr-vs-nva →
GLDG GoldMining Inc.	D+	56/100	—	—	—	-3.20%	$162.3M	/gldg-vs-nva →
SBMT Silver Bow Mining Corp.	D	50/100	—	—	—	-0.93%	$189.6M	/sbmt-vs-nva →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2025–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-06-30 • CIK 0001852551

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30), Nova Minerals Corp (NVA) reported GAAP revenue of $0 , GAAP net income of -$11.8M, operating cash flow of -$7.7M, and free cash flow of -$7.8M . On the balance sheet, NVA closed FY2025 with $0 in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-06-30	$0	-$11.8M	-$7.7M	-$7.8M	—	—

3. NVA Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NVA stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Nova Minerals Corp (NYSE: NVA) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 49/100 at a spot price of $3.50 (+1.45% 1D, market cap $133.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 270 tracked Materials issuers, NVA ranks #173 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NVA compare to PLG and TMCR in the Materials sector?

Within the Materials sector (Precious Metals), NVA carries a Roarable D (49/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, PLG (Platinum Group Metals Ltd. (Canada)) holds a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $136.8M) and TMCR (The Metals Royalty Company Inc.) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $139.5M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NVA leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while NVA leads on capital efficiency (— ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NVA?

Per NVA's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30, CIK 0001852551), Nova Minerals Corp generated $0 in revenue, -$11.8M in net income, and -$7.8M in free cash flow against $0 in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Materials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NVA trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NVA last traded at $3.50 (+1.45% on volume of 401,561 shares), positioning the stock -30.28% below its 50-day simple moving average ($5.02) and -41.67% below its 200-day simple moving average ($6.00). Across its 52-week range of $2.85 to $12.13, NVA sits at the 7.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 44.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($3.06 to $3.94).

NVA Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Are NVA insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies NVA leadership and institutional positioning as: NET EXECUTIVE TRIMMING / PROFIT-TAKING.

Direct Sub-Reports: NVA RQD Cockpit NVA 12M Forecast NVA Earnings & Move NVA Dividends & DRIP NVA Insiders & 13F NVA Whale Options NVA Profit Sankey NVA News & Why