MARKET WIREReuters • 2h ago
Iran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz - ReutersIran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz Reuters
Why NREF Stock slipped -0.65% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$15.31 -0.65% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.26
NexPoint Real Estate Finance Inc. (NREF) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 53/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID
Cap $288.6M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $15.26 (-0.31%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 11/20 (D+) • 0.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 53/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.6% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-2.2% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NREF)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±6.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (53/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY NREF SCORES 53/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (23% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 46% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 41.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+12/20 pts (23% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 60% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C$15.38+0.3% Next Q
61
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C$15.42+1.2% Next Q
58
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C$15.61-1.9% Next Q
56
CurrentGrade D+$15.31-0.9% Hist 90D α
53
Trajectory: C (61) → D+ (53)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a NREF Turnaround Squeeze
While NREF currently carries a cautious 53/100 (D+) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (8/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($16.17) and Max Pain ($16.08) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $19.35.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-1.24% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NREF• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “NREF Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why NREF Stock slipped -0.65% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
NexPoint Real Estate Finance Inc. (NREF) slipped -0.65% to $15.31, trading at 46% of its 52-week range ($12.6 – $18.43). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (steady margins) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 46% of its 52-week range ($12.6 – $18.43) with RSI-14 at 41.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±6.1% around $15.31 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D+ (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $22.9M annual free cash flow.
Live NREF Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 4h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
MARKET WIRECNBC • 4h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 6h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 8h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 8h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 9h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring NREF)
- ✓Walkthrough of NREF's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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NREF // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +6.17%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $15.27H $15.37L $15.11C $15.31VOL 38.8K
RES: $20.10SUP: $14.48SMA50: $16.17SMA200: $15.40
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
NREF Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NREF today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NREF. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NREF today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NREF)
Financials Rank #746 of 1096
⚔️ PINE vs NREF Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (NREF vs. PINE, BRT, KREF, LAND)
Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, NexPoint Real Estate Finance Inc. (NREF) ranks #746 by composite RQD confidence (53/100, grade D+) and #819 by equity capitalization ($288.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, LAND leads on earnings valuation at 24.9x trailing P/E, while PINE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 3.8% ROIC and — gross margin. PINE currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 62/100 (C) compared with NREF at 53/100 (D+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NREF
ACTIVE
NexPoint Real Estate Finance Inc. | D+ | 53/100 | — | — | — | -0.65% | $288.6M | Benchmark Subject |
| PINE Alpine Income Property Trust Inc. | C | 62/100 | — | — | 3.8% | +2.16% | $296.9M | /pine-vs-nref → |
| BRT BRT Apartments Corp. (MD) | D | 49/100 | — | — | -6.5% | +2.31% | $249.6M | /brt-vs-nref → |
| KREF KKR Real Estate Finance Trust Inc. | D+ | 52/100 | — | — | -4.0% | +3.55% | $334.1M | /kref-vs-nref → |
| LAND Gladstone Land Corporation | D | 47/100 | 24.9x | — | 2.0% | -6.80% | $336.9M | /land-vs-nref → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2024–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001786248In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), NexPoint Real Estate Finance Inc. (NREF) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $22.9M, and free cash flow of $22.9M (-21.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, NREF closed FY2025 with $5.32B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | $0 | $22.9M | $22.9M | $5.32B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | $0 | $29.3M | $29.3M | $5.42B | — |
3. NREF Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs NREF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, NexPoint Real Estate Finance Inc. (NYSE: NREF) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 53/100 at a spot price of $15.31 (-0.65% 1D, market cap $288.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 11/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 12/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, NREF ranks #746 in composite RQD confidence.
How does NREF compare to PINE and BRT in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), NREF carries a Roarable D+ (53/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, PINE (Alpine Income Property Trust Inc.) holds a C grade (62/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 3.8%, cap $296.9M) and BRT (BRT Apartments Corp. (MD)) posts a D grade (49/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -6.5%, cap $249.6M). Among the 5-stock peer group, LAND leads on earnings multiple (24.9x) while PINE leads on capital efficiency (3.8% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NREF?
Per NREF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001786248), NexPoint Real Estate Finance Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $0 in net income, and $22.9M in free cash flow against $5.32B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is NREF trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
NREF last traded at $15.31 (-0.65% on volume of 72,894 shares), positioning the stock -5.32% below its 50-day simple moving average ($16.17) and -0.58% below its 200-day simple moving average ($15.40). Across its 52-week range of $12.60 to $18.43, NREF sits at the 46.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 41.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±6.1% ($14.38 to $16.24).
NREF Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is NREF stock moving today?
Why NREF Stock slipped -0.65% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (steady margins) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.