Stock Ratings / Financials / NMIH / forecast

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NMI Holdings Inc. (NMIH) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$43.18 +2.54% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $43.48

NMI Holdings Inc. (NMIH) earns a Roarable Rating of B (Buy) with 74/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 15% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 74/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 12% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.4% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B • BUY Cap $3.25B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on NMIH Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is NMIH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, NMI Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: NMIH) is rated B (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 74/100 at a spot price of $43.18 (+2.54% 1D, market cap $3.25B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, NMIH ranks #49 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does NMIH compare to SLDE and AGO in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), NMIH carries a Roarable B (74/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 15.0%. By comparison, SLDE (Slide Insurance Holdings Inc.) holds a A- grade (84/100 RQD, P/E 7.2x, ROIC 39.9%, cap $3.22B) and AGO (Assured Guaranty Ltd.) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E 6.2x, ROIC 8.9%, cap $3.12B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AGO leads on earnings multiple (6.2x) while SLDE leads on capital efficiency (39.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NMIH?

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Per NMIH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001547903), NMI Holdings Inc. generated $706.4M in revenue (+8.5% YoY), $388.9M in net income, and $412.5M in free cash flow against $3.84B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $43.48 (+0.70%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 58.4% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 74/100 (B) historically ranked in the Top 12% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 69.4% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B+ · Rk B-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+7.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NMIH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (74/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY NMIH SCORES 74/100 (B) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+15/20 pts (20% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 58.4% FCF Margin ($412.5M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk13/20 pts (-7 pt drag)

Balance-sheet & 10-K footnote risk deducts 7 pts from forensic ceiling

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B-$39.39+4.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B-$41.01+4.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B$42.83+0.8% Next Q

Current

Grade B$43.18+7.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B- (66) → B (74)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the NMIH Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 74/100 (B) score, NMIH faces multiple-compression risk if 8.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($42.22) or 200D SMA ($40.27) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($46.29) toward Bear Floor ($35.41).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NMIH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “NMIH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 74%NO 26%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your NMIH Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $43.18: 231.6 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $35.41

$8,201

$-1,799 (-18.0%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $46.29

$10,720

+$720 (+7.2%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $54.62

$12,649

+$2,649 (+26.5%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (34 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 23● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	OUTPERFORM	$48	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	STRONG BUY	$51	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$41	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (NMIH Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

NMIH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +16.83%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-11-02O $42.11H $43.18L $42.11C $43.18VOL 431.3K

RES: $43.03SUP: $34.46SMA50: $42.22SMA200: $40.27

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NMIH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NMIH Butterfly Map → + Track NMIH →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-4.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +8.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NMIH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NMIH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NMIH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NMIH)

Financials Rank #49 of 1096 ⚔️ SLDE vs NMIH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (NMIH vs. SLDE, AGO, SPNT, LMND)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, NMI Holdings Inc. (NMIH) ranks #49 by composite RQD confidence (74/100, grade B) and #348 by equity capitalization ($3.25B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AGO leads on earnings valuation at 6.2x trailing P/E, while SLDE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 39.9% ROIC and — gross margin. SLDE currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 84/100 (A-) compared with NMIH at 74/100 (B).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
NMIH ACTIVE NMI Holdings Inc.	B	74/100	8.4x	—	15.0%	+2.54%	$3.25B	Benchmark Subject
SLDE Slide Insurance Holdings Inc.	A-	84/100	7.2x	—	39.9%	+1.29%	$3.22B	/slde-vs-nmih →
AGO Assured Guaranty Ltd.	D+	56/100	6.2x	—	8.9%	+2.25%	$3.12B	/ago-vs-nmih →
SPNT SiriusPoint Ltd.	C	63/100	6.6x	—	18.6%	+2.69%	$3.01B	/spnt-vs-nmih →
LMND Lemonade Inc.	E	23/100	—	—	-31.1%	+1.21%	$3.55B	/lmnd-vs-nmih →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001547903

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), NMI Holdings Inc. (NMIH) reported GAAP revenue of $706.4M (+8.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $651.0M , and +22.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $388.9M, operating cash flow of $419.3M, and free cash flow of $412.5M (+6.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, NMIH closed FY2025 with $3.84B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$706.4M	$388.9M	$419.3M	$412.5M	$3.84B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$651.0M	$360.1M	$393.6M	$386.7M	$3.35B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$579.0M	$322.1M	$342.7M	$342.7M	—	—

3. NMIH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NMIH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does NMIH compare to SLDE and AGO in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NMIH?

Where is NMIH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NMIH last traded at $43.18 (+2.54% on volume of 431,291 shares), positioning the stock +2.27% above its 50-day simple moving average ($42.22) and +7.23% above its 200-day simple moving average ($40.27). Across its 52-week range of $34.84 to $46.74, NMIH sits at the 70.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 59.9 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.3% ($40.89 to $45.47).

NMIH Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is NMIH's 12-month stock price target?

NMI Holdings Inc. (NMIH) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $46.29 (+7.2% from $43.18), with a bull-case target of $54.62 and a bear-case floor of $35.41.

Is NMIH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates NMIH B (Buy — BUY) with an RQD Confidence score of 74/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: NMIH RQD Cockpit NMIH 12M Forecast NMIH Earnings & Move NMIH Dividends & DRIP NMIH Insiders & 13F NMIH Whale Options NMIH Profit Sankey NMIH News & Why