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New Mountain Finance Corporation (NMFC) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$7.04 +1.88% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.05

New Mountain Finance Corporation (NMFC) carries a Roarable Rating of C- (Hold) with 59/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C- • HOLD / WATCH Cap $664.9M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $7.05 (+0.15%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.44% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 9.5% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 59/100 (C-) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 53.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C-

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk B-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+0.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for NMFC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (59/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY NMFC SCORES 59/100 (C-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (25% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 17% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 56.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (22% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±4.7% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.44% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 14 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C-$6.73+0.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$6.74-1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$6.67+5.5% Next Q

Current

Grade C-$7.04+0.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C- (51) → C- (59)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the NMFC Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 59/100 (C-) score, NMFC faces multiple-compression risk if 40.3x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Priced at 40x earnings—high expectations leave less room for a lukewarm quarter.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($7.06) or 200D SMA ($7.67) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($7.07) toward Bear Floor ($5.51).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $NMFC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “NMFC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 59%NO 41%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your NMFC Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $7.04: 1420.5 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $5.51

$7,827

$-2,173 (-21.7%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $7.07

$10,043

+$43 (+0.4%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $10.33

$14,673

+$4,673 (+46.7%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$7	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	BUY	$10	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$6	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (NMFC Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

NMFC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -17.56%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $7.05H $7.08L $6.94C $7.04VOL 597.5K

RES: $7.23SUP: $6.45SMA50: $7.06SMA200: $7.67

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

NMFC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 NMFC Butterfly Map → + Track NMFC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

30.6%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on NMFC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for NMFC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for NMFC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (NMFC)

Financials Rank #552 of 1096 ⚔️ SLRC vs NMFC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (NMFC vs. SLRC, BCSF, FDUS, MSIF)

Industry: Finance/Investors Services (37 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, New Mountain Finance Corporation (NMFC) ranks #552 by composite RQD confidence (59/100, grade C-) and #643 by equity capitalization ($664.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MSIF leads on earnings valuation at 6.1x trailing P/E, while MSIF leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.0% ROIC and — gross margin. BCSF currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 60/100 (C-) compared with NMFC at 59/100 (C-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
NMFC ACTIVE New Mountain Finance Corporation	C-	59/100	40.3x	—	1.4%	+1.88%	$664.9M	Benchmark Subject
SLRC SLR Investment Corp.	D	46/100	7.0x	—	9.3%	+1.99%	$643.2M	/slrc-vs-nmfc →
BCSF Bain Capital Specialty Finance Inc.	C-	60/100	7.1x	—	8.8%	+2.36%	$703.8M	/bcsf-vs-nmfc →
FDUS Fidus Investment Corporation	D	44/100	—	—	—	+1.83%	$737.8M	/fdus-vs-nmfc →
MSIF MSC Income Fund Inc.	D-	40/100	6.1x	—	12.0%	+1.44%	$541.9M	/msif-vs-nmfc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001496099

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), New Mountain Finance Corporation (NMFC) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $16.5M, operating cash flow of $379.0M, and free cash flow of $379.0M (+802.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, NMFC closed FY2025 with $2.90B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$16.5M	$379.0M	$379.0M	$2.90B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$113.4M	$42.0M	$42.0M	$3.25B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$135.3M	$332.7M	$332.7M	—	—

3. NMFC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is NMFC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, New Mountain Finance Corporation (NASDAQ: NMFC) is rated C- (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 59/100 at a spot price of $7.04 (+1.88% 1D, market cap $664.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 6/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, NMFC ranks #552 in composite RQD confidence.

How does NMFC compare to SLRC and BCSF in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Finance/Investors Services), NMFC carries a Roarable C- (59/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 40.3x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 1.4%. By comparison, SLRC (SLR Investment Corp.) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E 7.0x, ROIC 9.3%, cap $643.2M) and BCSF (Bain Capital Specialty Finance Inc.) posts a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E 7.1x, ROIC 8.8%, cap $703.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MSIF leads on earnings multiple (6.1x) while MSIF leads on capital efficiency (12.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for NMFC?

Per NMFC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001496099), New Mountain Finance Corporation generated $0 in revenue, $16.5M in net income, and $379.0M in free cash flow against $2.90B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is NMFC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

NMFC last traded at $7.04 (+1.88% on volume of 769,126 shares), positioning the stock -0.28% below its 50-day simple moving average ($7.06) and -8.21% below its 200-day simple moving average ($7.67). Across its 52-week range of $6.48 to $9.84, NMFC sits at the 16.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 56.7 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.7% ($6.71 to $7.37).

NMFC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is NMFC's 12-month stock price target?

New Mountain Finance Corporation (NMFC) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $7.07 (+0.4% from $7.04), with a bull-case target of $10.33 and a bear-case floor of $5.51.

Is NMFC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates NMFC C- (Hold — HOLD) with an RQD Confidence score of 59/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: NMFC RQD Cockpit NMFC 12M Forecast NMFC Earnings & Move NMFC Dividends & DRIP NMFC Insiders & 13F NMFC Whale Options NMFC Profit Sankey NMFC News & Why