MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why MTRX Stock slipped -0.40% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$9.87 -0.40% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.84
Matrix Service Company (MTRX) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 42/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D- • SELL / AVOID
Cap $279.2M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.84 (-0.26%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 14.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (42/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D-
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-7.2% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MTRX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.9%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (42/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MTRX SCORES 42/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+13/20 pts (31% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 9% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 36.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+10/20 pts (24% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±7.9% realized swing band)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)
Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C-$10.53-4.8% Next Q
50
Q2 (-2Q)Grade D$10.02-3.1% Next Q
47
Q3 (-1Q)Grade D$9.71+1.6% Next Q
45
CurrentGrade D-$9.87-7% Hist 90D α
42
Trajectory: C- (50) → D- (42)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MTRX Turnaround Squeeze
While MTRX currently carries a cautious 42/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($10.23) and Max Pain ($10.36) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $16.77.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MTRX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MTRX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 28, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why MTRX Stock slipped -0.40% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Matrix Service Company (MTRX) slipped -0.40% to $9.87, trading at 9% of its 52-week range ($9.26 – $15.97). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 9% of its 52-week range ($9.26 – $15.97) with RSI-14 at 36.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±7.9% around $9.87 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 5.2% gross margin and $109.8M annual free cash flow.
Live MTRX Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MTRX)
- ✓Walkthrough of MTRX's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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MTRX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -27.00%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-10-30O $9.66H $9.87L $9.26C $9.87VOL 398.6K
RES: $10.13SUP: $7.67SMA50: $10.23SMA200: $11.80
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
MTRX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +5.6% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MTRX today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MTRX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MTRX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MTRX)
Consumer Discretionary Rank #791 of 1011
⚔️ PHOE vs MTRX Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (MTRX vs. PHOE, PMA, BBCP, LMB)
Industry: Engineering & Construction (20 Tracked Issuers)Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Matrix Service Company (MTRX) ranks #791 by composite RQD confidence (42/100, grade D-) and #657 by equity capitalization ($279.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, LMB leads on earnings valuation at 15.7x trailing P/E, while LMB leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 21.2% ROIC and 26.2% gross margin. LMB currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 83/100 (A-) compared with MTRX at 42/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTRX
ACTIVE
Matrix Service Company | D- | 42/100 | — | 5.2% | -35.0% | -0.40% | $279.2M | Benchmark Subject |
| PHOE Phoenix Asia Holdings Limited | D- | 41/100 | — | 4.6% | — | +5.77% | $356.4M | /phoe-vs-mtrx → |
| PMA PMA Graphene Technology Group Inc. (Class A) | D+ | 55/100 | — | -18.4% | — | +10.00% | $215.1M | /pma-vs-mtrx → |
| BBCP Concrete Pumping Holdings Inc. | D+ | 53/100 | 80.5x | 42.4% | 5.2% | +2.31% | $513.0M | /bbcp-vs-mtrx → |
| LMB Limbach Holdings Inc. | A- | 83/100 | 15.7x | 26.2% | 21.2% | +1.48% | $613.8M | /lmb-vs-mtrx → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-06-30 • CIK 0000866273In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30), Matrix Service Company (MTRX) reported GAAP revenue of $769.3M (+5.6% vs. FY2024 revenue of $728.2M , and -3.2% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$29.5M, operating cash flow of $117.5M, and free cash flow of $109.8M (+67.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, MTRX closed FY2025 with $650.2M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 1.25, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-06-30 | $769.3M | -$29.5M | $117.5M | $109.8M | $650.2M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-06-30 | $728.2M | -$25.0M | $72.6M | $65.6M | $513.8M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-06-30 | $795.0M | -$52.4M | $10.2M | $10.2M | — | — |
3. MTRX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs MTRX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Matrix Service Company (NASDAQ: MTRX) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 42/100 at a spot price of $9.87 (-0.40% 1D, market cap $279.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 5/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 13/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, MTRX ranks #791 in composite RQD confidence.
How does MTRX compare to PHOE and PMA in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Engineering & Construction), MTRX carries a Roarable D- (42/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 5.2%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, PHOE (Phoenix Asia Holdings Limited) holds a D- grade (41/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $356.4M) and PMA (PMA Graphene Technology Group Inc. (Class A)) posts a D+ grade (55/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $215.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, LMB leads on earnings multiple (15.7x) while LMB leads on capital efficiency (21.2% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MTRX?
Per MTRX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30, CIK 0000866273), Matrix Service Company generated $769.3M in revenue (+5.6% YoY), -$29.5M in net income, and $109.8M in free cash flow against $650.2M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is MTRX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
MTRX last traded at $9.87 (-0.40% on volume of 422,520 shares), positioning the stock -3.52% below its 50-day simple moving average ($10.23) and -16.36% below its 200-day simple moving average ($11.80). Across its 52-week range of $9.26 to $15.97, MTRX sits at the 9.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 36.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.9% ($9.09 to $10.65).
MTRX Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is MTRX stock moving today?
Why MTRX Stock slipped -0.40% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.