MARKET WIREFintel • 5d ago
Oppenheimer Initiates Coverage of MSC Income Fund at OutperformWhy MSIF Stock advanced +1.44% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$11.95 +1.44% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.96
MSC Income Fund Inc. (MSIF) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 40/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT
Cap $541.9M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $11.96 (+0.07%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+1.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (40/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.1% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MSIF)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (40/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MSIF SCORES 40/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (25% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+8/20 pts (20% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±5.4% realized swing band)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)
Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 14 pts on the table
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade E$11.75-0.8% Next Q
32
Q2 (-2Q)Grade E$11.66-1% Next Q
35
Q3 (-1Q)Grade E$11.54+3.6% Next Q
37
CurrentGrade D-$11.95-7.4% Hist 90D α
40
Trajectory: E (32) → D- (40)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MSIF Turnaround Squeeze
While MSIF currently carries a cautious 40/100 (D-) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($12.14) and Max Pain ($12.55) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $15.18.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+1.08% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MSIF• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MSIF Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why MSIF Stock advanced +1.44% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
MSC Income Fund Inc. (MSIF) advanced +1.44% to $11.95, trading at 31% of its 52-week range ($10.8 – $14.46). Stretched risk/reward at 6x P/E (12% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 31% of its 52-week range ($10.8 – $14.46) with RSI-14 at 51.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±5.4% around $11.95 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live MSIF Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREBenzinga • 5d ago
Oppenheimer Initiates Coverage On MSC Income Fund with Outperform Rating, Announces Price Target of $15Oppenheimer analyst Mitchel Penn initiates coverage on MSC Income Fund (NYSE:MSIF) with a Outperform rating and announces Price Target of $15.
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MSIF)
- ✓Walkthrough of MSIF's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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MSIF // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -7.44%▲ ASCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $11.98H $12.05L $11.76C $11.95VOL 150.7K
RES: $13.34SUP: $11.29SMA50: $12.14SMA200: $12.28
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
MSIF Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-10.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MSIF today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MSIF. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MSIF today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MSIF)
Financials Rank #983 of 1096
⚔️ NMCO vs MSIF Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (MSIF vs. NMCO, SLRC, NMFC, BCSF)
Industry: Finance/Investors Services (37 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, MSC Income Fund Inc. (MSIF) ranks #983 by composite RQD confidence (40/100, grade D-) and #687 by equity capitalization ($541.9M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, MSIF leads on earnings valuation at 6.1x trailing P/E, while MSIF leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.0% ROIC and — gross margin. NMCO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 60/100 (C-) compared with MSIF at 40/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSIF
ACTIVE
MSC Income Fund Inc. | D- | 40/100 | 6.1x | — | 12.0% | +1.44% | $541.9M | Benchmark Subject |
| NMCO Nuveen Municipal Credit Opportunities Fund | C- | 60/100 | — | — | — | +0.79% | $489.1M | /nmco-vs-msif → |
| SLRC SLR Investment Corp. | D | 46/100 | 7.0x | — | 9.3% | +1.99% | $643.2M | /slrc-vs-msif → |
| NMFC New Mountain Finance Corporation | C- | 59/100 | 40.3x | — | 1.4% | +1.88% | $664.9M | /nmfc-vs-msif → |
| BCSF Bain Capital Specialty Finance Inc. | C- | 60/100 | 7.1x | — | 8.8% | +2.36% | $703.8M | /bcsf-vs-msif → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001535778In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), MSC Income Fund Inc. (MSIF) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $88.7M, operating cash flow of -$70.3M, and free cash flow of -$70.3M (-150.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, MSIF closed FY2025 with $1.38B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | $88.7M | -$70.3M | -$70.3M | $1.38B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | $56.6M | -$28.1M | -$28.1M | $1.22B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $0 | $66.2M | $50.2M | $50.2M | — | — |
3. MSIF Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs MSIF stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, MSC Income Fund Inc. (NYSE: MSIF) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 40/100 at a spot price of $11.95 (+1.44% 1D, market cap $541.9M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 8/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, MSIF ranks #983 in composite RQD confidence.
How does MSIF compare to NMCO and SLRC in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Finance/Investors Services), MSIF carries a Roarable D- (40/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 12.0%. By comparison, NMCO (Nuveen Municipal Credit Opportunities Fund) holds a C- grade (60/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $489.1M) and SLRC (SLR Investment Corp.) posts a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E 7.0x, ROIC 9.3%, cap $643.2M). Among the 5-stock peer group, MSIF leads on earnings multiple (6.1x) while MSIF leads on capital efficiency (12.0% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MSIF?
Per MSIF's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001535778), MSC Income Fund Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $88.7M in net income, and -$70.3M in free cash flow against $1.38B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is MSIF trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
MSIF last traded at $11.95 (+1.44% on volume of 134,293 shares), positioning the stock -1.57% below its 50-day simple moving average ($12.14) and -2.69% below its 200-day simple moving average ($12.28). Across its 52-week range of $10.80 to $14.46, MSIF sits at the 31.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 51.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.4% ($11.30 to $12.60).
MSIF Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is MSIF stock moving today?
Why MSIF Stock advanced +1.44% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 6x P/E (12% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.