Stock Ratings / Financials / MSBI / forecast

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Midland States Bancorp Inc. (MSBI) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$33.83 -1.23% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $33.69

Midland States Bancorp Inc. (MSBI) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $702.0M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $33.69 (-0.41%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 3% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MSBI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.4%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MSBI SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (25% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 94% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 48.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+10/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 3% FCF Margin ($120.3M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$32.16+0.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$32.22+2.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$32.98+2.6% Next Q

Current

Grade D$33.83-5.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (40) → D (48)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MSBI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While MSBI currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($32.96) and Max Pain ($35.52) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $38.13.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MSBI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MSBI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 48%NO 52%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your MSBI Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $33.83: 295.6 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $25.20

$7,449

$-2,551 (-25.5%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $32.31

$9,551

$-449 (-4.5%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $38.13

$11,271

+$1,271 (+12.7%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$34	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$36	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$29	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MSBI)

✓Walkthrough of MSBI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

MSBI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +30.07%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-10-30O $33.95H $34.08L $32.75C $33.83VOL 132.2K

RES: $32.88SUP: $30.96SMA50: $32.96SMA200: $28.23

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MSBI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MSBI Butterfly Map → + Track MSBI →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MSBI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MSBI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MSBI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MSBI)

Financials Rank #891 of 1096 ⚔️ CWBC vs MSBI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (MSBI vs. CWBC, BCAL, PFIS, AROW)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Midland States Bancorp Inc. (MSBI) ranks #891 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #625 by equity capitalization ($702.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BCAL leads on earnings valuation at 10.9x trailing P/E, while PFIS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.4% ROIC and — gross margin. PFIS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with MSBI at 48/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MSBI ACTIVE Midland States Bancorp Inc.	D	48/100	—	—	-22.0%	-1.23%	$702.0M	Benchmark Subject
CWBC Community West Bancshares	C-	59/100	18.6x	—	9.3%	+0.97%	$708.1M	/cwbc-vs-msbi →
BCAL California BanCorp	C	65/100	10.9x	—	10.9%	-0.46%	$689.3M	/bcal-vs-msbi →
PFIS Peoples Financial Services Corp.	C+	67/100	12.1x	—	11.4%	+0.37%	$715.3M	/pfis-vs-msbi →
AROW Arrow Financial Corporation	C+	66/100	16.3x	—	10.2%	+1.67%	$716.2M	/arow-vs-msbi →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001466026

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Midland States Bancorp Inc. (MSBI) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$124.3M, operating cash flow of $125.7M, and free cash flow of $120.3M (-29.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, MSBI closed FY2025 with $6.51B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	-$124.3M	$125.7M	$120.3M	$6.51B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$38.0M	$176.5M	$169.6M	$7.51B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$61.2M	$153.4M	$153.4M	—	—

3. MSBI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MSBI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Midland States Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: MSBI) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $33.83 (-1.23% 1D, market cap $702.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, MSBI ranks #891 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MSBI compare to CWBC and BCAL in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), MSBI carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -22.0%. By comparison, CWBC (Community West Bancshares) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 18.6x, ROIC 9.3%, cap $708.1M) and BCAL (California BanCorp) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 10.9x, ROIC 10.9%, cap $689.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BCAL leads on earnings multiple (10.9x) while PFIS leads on capital efficiency (11.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MSBI?

Per MSBI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001466026), Midland States Bancorp Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$124.3M in net income, and $120.3M in free cash flow against $6.51B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MSBI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MSBI last traded at $33.83 (-1.23% on volume of 167,454 shares), positioning the stock +2.64% above its 50-day simple moving average ($32.96) and +19.84% above its 200-day simple moving average ($28.23). Across its 52-week range of $14.52 to $35.10, MSBI sits at the 93.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 48.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.4% ($32.00 to $35.66).

MSBI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is MSBI's 12-month stock price target?

Midland States Bancorp Inc. (MSBI) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $32.31 (-4.5% from $33.83), with a bull-case target of $38.13 and a bear-case floor of $25.2.

Is MSBI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates MSBI D (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 48/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: MSBI RQD Cockpit MSBI 12M Forecast MSBI Earnings & Move MSBI Dividends & DRIP MSBI Insiders & 13F MSBI Whale Options MSBI Profit Sankey MSBI News & Why