Stock Ratings / Financials / MSBI / earnings

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Midland States Bancorp Inc. (MSBI) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±5.4% Move

$33.83 -1.23% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $33.69

Midland States Bancorp Inc. (MSBI) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 48/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $702.0M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $33.69 (-0.41%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 3% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (48/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MSBI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.4%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (48/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MSBI SCORES 48/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (25% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 94% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 48.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+10/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 3% FCF Margin ($120.3M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$32.16+0.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$32.22+2.4% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$32.98+2.6% Next Q

Current

Grade D$33.83-5.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (40) → D (48)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MSBI Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While MSBI currently carries a cautious 48/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($32.96) and Max Pain ($35.52) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $38.13.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MSBI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MSBI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 48%NO 52%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±5.4% Swing Band

±$1.83 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

MSBI Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 48/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 12.4%

Model Bullish Setup (48/100)Model Risk Weight (52/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$0	-$124.3M	$120.3M	52%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$0	$38.0M	$169.6M	52%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$0	$61.2M	$153.4M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MSBI)

✓Walkthrough of MSBI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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MSBI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +30.07%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-10-30O $33.95H $34.08L $32.75C $33.83VOL 132.2K

RES: $32.88SUP: $30.96SMA50: $32.96SMA200: $28.23

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MSBI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MSBI Butterfly Map → + Track MSBI →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MSBI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MSBI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MSBI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MSBI)

Financials Rank #891 of 1096 ⚔️ CWBC vs MSBI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (MSBI vs. CWBC, BCAL, PFIS, AROW)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Midland States Bancorp Inc. (MSBI) ranks #891 by composite RQD confidence (48/100, grade D) and #625 by equity capitalization ($702.0M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BCAL leads on earnings valuation at 10.9x trailing P/E, while PFIS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.4% ROIC and — gross margin. PFIS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with MSBI at 48/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MSBI ACTIVE Midland States Bancorp Inc.	D	48/100	—	—	-22.0%	-1.23%	$702.0M	Benchmark Subject
CWBC Community West Bancshares	C-	59/100	18.6x	—	9.3%	+0.97%	$708.1M	/cwbc-vs-msbi →
BCAL California BanCorp	C	65/100	10.9x	—	10.9%	-0.46%	$689.3M	/bcal-vs-msbi →
PFIS Peoples Financial Services Corp.	C+	67/100	12.1x	—	11.4%	+0.37%	$715.3M	/pfis-vs-msbi →
AROW Arrow Financial Corporation	C+	66/100	16.3x	—	10.2%	+1.67%	$716.2M	/arow-vs-msbi →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001466026

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Midland States Bancorp Inc. (MSBI) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$124.3M, operating cash flow of $125.7M, and free cash flow of $120.3M (-29.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, MSBI closed FY2025 with $6.51B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	-$124.3M	$125.7M	$120.3M	$6.51B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$38.0M	$176.5M	$169.6M	$7.51B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$61.2M	$153.4M	$153.4M	—	—

3. MSBI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MSBI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Midland States Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: MSBI) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 48/100 at a spot price of $33.83 (-1.23% 1D, market cap $702.0M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, MSBI ranks #891 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MSBI compare to CWBC and BCAL in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), MSBI carries a Roarable D (48/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -22.0%. By comparison, CWBC (Community West Bancshares) holds a C- grade (59/100 RQD, P/E 18.6x, ROIC 9.3%, cap $708.1M) and BCAL (California BanCorp) posts a C grade (65/100 RQD, P/E 10.9x, ROIC 10.9%, cap $689.3M). Among the 5-stock peer group, BCAL leads on earnings multiple (10.9x) while PFIS leads on capital efficiency (11.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MSBI?

Per MSBI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001466026), Midland States Bancorp Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$124.3M in net income, and $120.3M in free cash flow against $6.51B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MSBI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MSBI last traded at $33.83 (-1.23% on volume of 167,454 shares), positioning the stock +2.64% above its 50-day simple moving average ($32.96) and +19.84% above its 200-day simple moving average ($28.23). Across its 52-week range of $14.52 to $35.10, MSBI sits at the 93.8% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 48.2 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.4% ($32.00 to $35.66).

MSBI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is MSBI's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Midland States Bancorp Inc. (MSBI)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is MSBI stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±5.4% event move for MSBI, spanning a range between $32 and $35.66.

Direct Sub-Reports: MSBI RQD Cockpit MSBI 12M Forecast MSBI Earnings & Move MSBI Dividends & DRIP MSBI Insiders & 13F MSBI Whale Options MSBI Profit Sankey MSBI News & Why