MARKET WIRESeekingAlpha • 15h ago
AI Cracks Fuel REIT ComebackThe Fed held rates steady following September's hike, with two dissenters favoring another increase. Check out the market update here.
Why MPT Stock dropped -11.27% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$2.44 -11.27% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.39
Medical Properties Trust Inc. (MPT) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 42/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D- • SELL / AVOID
Cap $1.46B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.39 (-2.22%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 23.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (42/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.0% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D-
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-7.4% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MPT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.3%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (42/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY MPT SCORES 42/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+11/20 pts (26% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (24% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 9% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 19.4 (OVERSOLD (<32))
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C-$3.14-4.1% Next Q
50
Q2 (-2Q)Grade D$3.01-10.3% Next Q
47
Q3 (-1Q)Grade D$2.70-9.6% Next Q
45
CurrentGrade D-$2.44-7% Hist 90D α
42
Trajectory: C- (50) → D- (42)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a MPT Turnaround Squeeze
While MPT currently carries a cautious 42/100 (D-) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($3.41) and Max Pain ($2.56) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $6.79.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MPT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “MPT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why MPT Stock dropped -11.27% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Medical Properties Trust Inc. (MPT) dropped -11.27% to $2.44, trading at 9% of its 52-week range ($2.06 – $6.47). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-6% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 9% of its 52-week range ($2.06 – $6.47) with RSI-14 at 19.4 (OVERSOLD (<32)).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.3% around $2.44 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $230.8M annual free cash flow.
Live MPT Headlines & Catalysts
RISK WATCHFintel • 1d ago
RBC Capital Downgrades Medical Properties Trust to Underperform from Sector PerformRISK WATCHYahoo • 2d ago
Medical Properties Trust (MPT) Stock Dropped, What Is Driving Attention Today?Medical Properties Trust (MPT) just absorbed a sharp downgrade to Underperform from RBC Capital Markets after its Q3 2026 report, with analysts highlighting tenant strain, liquidity pressure, and concern over a reduced e
RISK WATCHYahoo • 2d ago
RBC Capital cuts Medical Properties Trust to Underperform on tenant risksInvesting.com -- Medical Properties Trust Inc (NYSE:MPT) shares tumbled over 8% in Friday trading following a sharp downgrade from RBC Capital Markets, which cited deepening tenant vulnerabilities and persistent liquidit
MARKET WIREYahoo • 2d ago
Medical Properties Trust Outlook Weighed by Tenant Issues, Tight Liquidity, RBC SaysMedical Properties Trust (MPT) faces a "challenging environment" as ongoing tenant issues and a tigh
MARKET WIREYahoo • 2d ago
Medical Properties Trust Q3 Earnings Call HighlightsMedical Properties Trust (NYSE:MPT) said it has collected more than $750 million in cash revenue year to date, a pace that annualizes above the company’s prior target of at least $1 billion in annualized cash rental reve
RISK WATCHBenzinga • 2d ago
RBC Capital Downgrades Medical Properties Trust to Underperform, Lowers Price Target to $2RBC Capital analyst Michael Carroll downgrades Medical Properties Trust (NYSE:MPT) from Sector Perform to Underperform and lowers the price target from $4.5 to $2.
CATALYSTSeekingAlpha • 2d ago
Medical Properties Trust's Collapse Offers A Golden Buying OpportunityMedical Properties Trust remains a 'strong buy' despite a 38.8% decline since August, with shares trading at deep value multiples. Read more on MPT stock here.
MARKET WIREYahoo • 3d ago
MPT (MPT) Q3 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptBalance sheet restructuring and operator stabilization drive quarterly results.
MARKET WIREFintel • 3d ago
Medical Properties Trust, Inc. Reports 2026 Third Quarter Results and Approximately $680 Million in Asset Sale ProceedsON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring MPT)
- ✓Walkthrough of MPT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
MPT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -50.61%▼ SUPPORT BREAKDOWN
2026-10-30O $2.39H $2.44L $2.06C $2.44VOL 47.93M
RES: $4.37SUP: $2.68SMA50: $3.41SMA200: $4.56
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
MPT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. -2.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MPT today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MPT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MPT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MPT)
Financials Rank #963 of 1096
⚔️ AAT vs MPT Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (MPT vs. AAT, CBL, UMH, ALX)
Industry: Real Estate Investment Trusts (172 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Medical Properties Trust Inc. (MPT) ranks #963 by composite RQD confidence (42/100, grade D-) and #498 by equity capitalization ($1.46B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CBL leads on earnings valuation at 11.6x trailing P/E, while CBL leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 36.3% ROIC and — gross margin. ALX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with MPT at 42/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MPT
ACTIVE
Medical Properties Trust Inc. | D- | 42/100 | — | — | -6.0% | -11.27% | $1.46B | Benchmark Subject |
| AAT American Assets Trust Inc. | C- | 61/100 | — | — | 11.3% | +3.19% | $1.37B | /aat-vs-mpt → |
| CBL CBL & Associates Properties Inc. | B- | 71/100 | 11.6x | — | 36.3% | +2.28% | $1.57B | /cbl-vs-mpt → |
| UMH UMH Properties Inc. | C | 62/100 | — | — | 0.7% | +1.54% | $1.30B | /umh-vs-mpt → |
| ALX Alexander's Inc. | B | 73/100 | 45.1x | — | 25.9% | +0.46% | $1.27B | /alx-vs-mpt → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001287865In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Medical Properties Trust Inc. (MPT) reported GAAP revenue of $972.0M (-2.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $995.5M , and +11.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$277.0M, operating cash flow of $230.8M, and free cash flow of $230.8M (-6.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, MPT closed FY2025 with $15.00B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $972.0M | -$277.0M | $230.8M | $230.8M | $15.00B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $995.5M | -$2.41B | $245.5M | $245.5M | $14.29B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $871.8M | -$556.5M | $505.8M | $505.8M | — | — |
3. MPT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs MPT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Medical Properties Trust Inc. (NYSE: MPT) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 42/100 at a spot price of $2.44 (-11.27% 1D, market cap $1.46B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 11/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, MPT ranks #963 in composite RQD confidence.
How does MPT compare to AAT and CBL in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Real Estate Investment Trusts), MPT carries a Roarable D- (42/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -6.0%. By comparison, AAT (American Assets Trust Inc.) holds a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 11.3%, cap $1.37B) and CBL (CBL & Associates Properties Inc.) posts a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 11.6x, ROIC 36.3%, cap $1.57B). Among the 5-stock peer group, CBL leads on earnings multiple (11.6x) while CBL leads on capital efficiency (36.3% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MPT?
Per MPT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001287865), Medical Properties Trust Inc. generated $972.0M in revenue (-2.4% YoY), -$277.0M in net income, and $230.8M in free cash flow against $15.00B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is MPT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
MPT last traded at $2.44 (-11.27% on volume of 35,765,660 shares), positioning the stock -28.45% below its 50-day simple moving average ($3.41) and -46.49% below its 200-day simple moving average ($4.56). Across its 52-week range of $2.06 to $6.47, MPT sits at the 8.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 19.4 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.3% ($2.14 to $2.74).
MPT Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is MPT stock moving today?
Why MPT Stock dropped -11.27% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-6% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.