Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / MAX / options

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MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A) (MAX) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$14.13 +20.56% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $14.69

MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A) (MAX) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 70/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (15% profit margin, 20% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 70/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 15% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.1% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B- • BUY Cap $836.4M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $14.69 (+3.94%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 5.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 70/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 15% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.1% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B+ · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MAX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (70/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MAX SCORES 70/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+16/20 pts (23% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (76) create a -9 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$10.09+14% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$11.50+3.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$11.90+18.7% Next Q

Current

Grade B-$14.13+6.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (62) → B- (70)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MAX Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 70/100 (B-) score, MAX faces multiple-compression risk if 32.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 15.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($11.28) or 200D SMA ($10.63) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($14.89) toward Bear Floor ($11.59).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MAX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MAX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 70%NO 30%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±12%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (MAX)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for MAX.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating MAX & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on MAX
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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MAX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +66.04%▲ ASCENDING TRIANGLE

2026-10-30O $14.00H $14.87L $13.81C $14.13VOL 2.02M

SUP: $9.33SMA50: $11.28SMA200: $10.63

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MAX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MAX Butterfly Map → + Track MAX →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

25.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +28.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MAX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MAX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MAX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MAX)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #180 of 1011 ⚔️ PHR vs MAX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (MAX vs. PHR, QNST, CASS, PRTH)

Industry: Business Services (90 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A) (MAX) ranks #180 by composite RQD confidence (70/100, grade B-) and #532 by equity capitalization ($836.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PRTH leads on earnings valuation at 11.6x trailing P/E, while MAX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 19.7% ROIC and 15.0% gross margin. QNST currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with MAX at 70/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MAX ACTIVE MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A)	B-	70/100	32.6x	15.0%	19.7%	+20.56%	$836.4M	Benchmark Subject
PHR Phreesia Inc.	D+	57/100	—	—	-2.0%	+1.29%	$777.7M	/phr-vs-max →
QNST QuinStreet Inc.	B	73/100	—	10.1%	2.6%	+4.83%	$980.8M	/qnst-vs-max →
CASS Cass Information Systems Inc	C+	66/100	19.6x	—	14.5%	-0.30%	$687.8M	/cass-vs-max →
PRTH Priority Technology Holdings Inc.	D+	56/100	11.6x	—	12.9%	0.00%	$647.2M	/prth-vs-max →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001818383

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A) (MAX) reported GAAP revenue of $1.11B (+28.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $864.7M , and +186.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $25.6M, operating cash flow of $65.6M, and free cash flow of $65.3M (+43.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, MAX closed FY2025 with $383.8M in total assets against $131.6M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.64, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.11B	$25.6M	$65.6M	$65.3M	$383.8M	$131.6M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$864.7M	$16.6M	$45.9M	$45.6M	$262.4M	$153.6M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$388.1M	-$40.4M	$20.2M	$20.2M	—	—

3. MAX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MAX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: MAX) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 70/100 at a spot price of $14.13 (+20.56% 1D, market cap $836.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, MAX ranks #180 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MAX compare to PHR and QNST in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Business Services), MAX carries a Roarable B- (70/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.6x, gross margin of 15.0%, and ROIC of 19.7%. By comparison, PHR (Phreesia Inc.) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.0%, cap $777.7M) and QNST (QuinStreet Inc.) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 2.6%, cap $980.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, PRTH leads on earnings multiple (11.6x) while MAX leads on capital efficiency (19.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MAX?

Per MAX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001818383), MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A) generated $1.11B in revenue (+28.8% YoY), $25.6M in net income, and $65.3M in free cash flow against $383.8M in total assets and $131.6M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (15% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MAX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MAX last traded at $14.13 (+20.56% on volume of 2,964,809 shares), positioning the stock +25.27% above its 50-day simple moving average ($11.28) and +32.93% above its 200-day simple moving average ($10.63). Across its 52-week range of $7.09 to $14.87, MAX sits at the 90.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 76.0 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.0% ($12.43 to $15.83).

MAX Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is MAX's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for MAX.

Direct Sub-Reports: MAX RQD Cockpit MAX 12M Forecast MAX Earnings & Move MAX Dividends & DRIP MAX Insiders & 13F MAX Whale Options MAX Profit Sankey MAX News & Why