Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / MAX / earnings

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MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A) (MAX) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±12% Move

$14.13 +20.56% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $14.69

MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A) (MAX) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 70/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (15% profit margin, 20% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 70/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 15% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.1% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B- • BUY Cap $836.4M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $14.69 (+3.94%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 15/20 (B) • 5.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 70/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 15% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.1% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B+ · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for MAX)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (70/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY MAX SCORES 70/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+16/20 pts (23% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Macro Regime Fit11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Macro rate sensitivity & RSI-14 (76) create a -9 pt regime headwind

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C+$10.09+14% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$11.50+3.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B-$11.90+18.7% Next Q

Current

Grade B-$14.13+6.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C+ (62) → B- (70)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the MAX Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 70/100 (B-) score, MAX faces multiple-compression risk if 32.6x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 15.0% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($11.28) or 200D SMA ($10.63) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($14.89) toward Bear Floor ($11.59).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $MAX• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “MAX Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 70%NO 30%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±12% Swing Band

±$1.70 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

MAX Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 70/100

Trailing EPS: $0.43 • YoY Revenue Growth: 28.8%

Model Bullish Setup (70/100)Model Risk Weight (30/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$1.11B	$25.6M	$65.3M	15%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$864.7M	$16.6M	$45.6M	16.6%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$388.1M	-$40.4M	$20.2M	15%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating MAX & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on MAX
✓How disciplined traders manage risk using pre-published trigger & invalidation levels
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

MAX // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +66.04%▲ ASCENDING TRIANGLE

2026-10-30O $14.00H $14.87L $13.81C $14.13VOL 2.02M

SUP: $9.33SMA50: $11.28SMA200: $10.63

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

MAX Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 MAX Butterfly Map → + Track MAX →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

25.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +28.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on MAX today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for MAX. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for MAX today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (MAX)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #180 of 1011 ⚔️ PHR vs MAX Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (MAX vs. PHR, QNST, CASS, PRTH)

Industry: Business Services (90 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A) (MAX) ranks #180 by composite RQD confidence (70/100, grade B-) and #532 by equity capitalization ($836.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, PRTH leads on earnings valuation at 11.6x trailing P/E, while MAX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 19.7% ROIC and 15.0% gross margin. QNST currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 73/100 (B) compared with MAX at 70/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
MAX ACTIVE MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A)	B-	70/100	32.6x	15.0%	19.7%	+20.56%	$836.4M	Benchmark Subject
PHR Phreesia Inc.	D+	57/100	—	—	-2.0%	+1.29%	$777.7M	/phr-vs-max →
QNST QuinStreet Inc.	B	73/100	—	10.1%	2.6%	+4.83%	$980.8M	/qnst-vs-max →
CASS Cass Information Systems Inc	C+	66/100	19.6x	—	14.5%	-0.30%	$687.8M	/cass-vs-max →
PRTH Priority Technology Holdings Inc.	D+	56/100	11.6x	—	12.9%	0.00%	$647.2M	/prth-vs-max →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001818383

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A) (MAX) reported GAAP revenue of $1.11B (+28.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $864.7M , and +186.9% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $25.6M, operating cash flow of $65.6M, and free cash flow of $65.3M (+43.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, MAX closed FY2025 with $383.8M in total assets against $131.6M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 2.64, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.11B	$25.6M	$65.6M	$65.3M	$383.8M	$131.6M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$864.7M	$16.6M	$45.9M	$45.6M	$262.4M	$153.6M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$388.1M	-$40.4M	$20.2M	$20.2M	—	—

3. MAX Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is MAX stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: MAX) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 70/100 at a spot price of $14.13 (+20.56% 1D, market cap $836.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 15/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 16/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, MAX ranks #180 in composite RQD confidence.

How does MAX compare to PHR and QNST in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Business Services), MAX carries a Roarable B- (70/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 32.6x, gross margin of 15.0%, and ROIC of 19.7%. By comparison, PHR (Phreesia Inc.) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -2.0%, cap $777.7M) and QNST (QuinStreet Inc.) posts a B grade (73/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 2.6%, cap $980.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, PRTH leads on earnings multiple (11.6x) while MAX leads on capital efficiency (19.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for MAX?

Per MAX's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001818383), MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A) generated $1.11B in revenue (+28.8% YoY), $25.6M in net income, and $65.3M in free cash flow against $383.8M in total assets and $131.6M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (15% profit margin)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is MAX trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

MAX last traded at $14.13 (+20.56% on volume of 2,964,809 shares), positioning the stock +25.27% above its 50-day simple moving average ($11.28) and +32.93% above its 200-day simple moving average ($10.63). Across its 52-week range of $7.09 to $14.87, MAX sits at the 90.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 76.0 (OVERBOUGHT (>70)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.0% ($12.43 to $15.83).

MAX Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is MAX's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, MediaAlpha Inc. (Class A) (MAX)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 30, 2026.

How much is MAX stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±12% event move for MAX, spanning a range between $12.43 and $15.83.

Direct Sub-Reports: MAX RQD Cockpit MAX 12M Forecast MAX Earnings & Move MAX Dividends & DRIP MAX Insiders & 13F MAX Whale Options MAX Profit Sankey MAX News & Why