Stock Ratings / Financials / LMND / financials

PLMR (75) NMIH (68) SLDE (82) AGO (63) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Lemonade Inc. (LMND) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$45.91 +1.21% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $45.92

Lemonade Inc. (LMND) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 38/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (38/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $3.55B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on LMND Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is LMND stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-01, Lemonade Inc. (NYSE: LMND) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 38/100 at a spot price of $45.91 (+1.21% 1D, market cap $3.55B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 3/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, LMND ranks #1004 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does LMND compare to PLMR and NMIH in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), LMND carries a Roarable D- (38/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -31.1%. By comparison, PLMR (Palomar Holdings Inc.) holds a B grade (75/100 RQD, P/E 18.3x, ROIC 20.9%, cap $3.61B) and NMIH (NMI Holdings Inc.) posts a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 8.4x, ROIC 15.0%, cap $3.25B). Among the 5-stock peer group, AGO leads on earnings multiple (6.2x) while SLDE leads on capital efficiency (39.9% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LMND?

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Per LMND's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001691421), Lemonade Inc. generated $737.9M in revenue (+40.2% YoY), -$166.0M in net income, and -$25.9M in free cash flow against $1.93B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $45.92 (+0.03%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 3/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (38/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for LMND)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.9%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (38/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY LMND SCORES 38/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (37% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±8.9% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+10/20 pts (26% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 6% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 38.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$46.46-4.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$44.20+1.6% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$44.92+2.2% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$45.91-7.8% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (46) → D- (38)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a LMND Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While LMND currently carries a cautious 38/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($47.87) and Max Pain ($48.21) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $104.90.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $LMND• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “LMND Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 38%NO 62%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How LMND Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $429.8M

FY24

Rev $526.5M

FY25

Rev $737.9M

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$737.9M	52%	0%	-$166.0M	-$25.9M	-31.1%
FY 2024	$526.5M	52%	0%	-$202.2M	-$20.8M	-31.1%
FY 2023	$429.8M	52%	0%	-$236.9M	-$119.1M	-31.1%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring LMND)

✓Walkthrough of LMND's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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LMND // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -18.94%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $44.49H $45.91L $42.53C $45.91VOL 1.39M

RES: $51.97SUP: $41.93SMA50: $47.87SMA200: $58.41

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

LMND Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 LMND Butterfly Map → + Track LMND →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +40.2% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on LMND today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for LMND. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for LMND today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (LMND)

Financials Rank #1004 of 1096 ⚔️ PLMR vs LMND Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (LMND vs. PLMR, NMIH, SLDE, AGO)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Lemonade Inc. (LMND) ranks #1004 by composite RQD confidence (38/100, grade D-) and #329 by equity capitalization ($3.55B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, AGO leads on earnings valuation at 6.2x trailing P/E, while SLDE leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 39.9% ROIC and — gross margin. SLDE currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 82/100 (A-) compared with LMND at 38/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
LMND ACTIVE Lemonade Inc.	D-	38/100	—	—	-31.1%	+1.21%	$3.55B	Benchmark Subject
PLMR Palomar Holdings Inc.	B	75/100	18.3x	—	20.9%	+0.54%	$3.61B	/plmr-vs-lmnd →
NMIH NMI Holdings Inc.	C+	68/100	8.4x	—	15.0%	+2.54%	$3.25B	/nmih-vs-lmnd →
SLDE Slide Insurance Holdings Inc.	A-	82/100	7.2x	—	39.9%	+1.29%	$3.22B	/slde-vs-lmnd →
AGO Assured Guaranty Ltd.	C	63/100	6.2x	—	8.9%	+2.25%	$3.12B	/ago-vs-lmnd →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001691421

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Lemonade Inc. (LMND) reported GAAP revenue of $737.9M (+40.2% vs. FY2024 revenue of $526.5M , and +71.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$166.0M, operating cash flow of -$16.5M, and free cash flow of -$25.9M (-24.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, LMND closed FY2025 with $1.93B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$737.9M	-$166.0M	-$16.5M	-$25.9M	$1.93B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$526.5M	-$202.2M	-$11.4M	-$20.8M	$1.85B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$429.8M	-$236.9M	-$119.1M	-$119.1M	—	—

3. LMND Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is LMND stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does LMND compare to PLMR and NMIH in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LMND?

Where is LMND trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

LMND last traded at $45.91 (+1.21% on volume of 1,060,441 shares), positioning the stock -4.09% below its 50-day simple moving average ($47.87) and -21.40% below its 200-day simple moving average ($58.41). Across its 52-week range of $42.53 to $99.90, LMND sits at the 5.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 38.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.9% ($41.82 to $50.00).

LMND Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Lemonade Inc. (LMND)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), LMND converted $737.9M of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $0 in free cash flow (0% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: LMND RQD Cockpit LMND 12M Forecast LMND Earnings & Move LMND Dividends & DRIP LMND Insiders & 13F LMND Whale Options LMND Profit Sankey LMND News & Why