MARKET WIREBenzinga • 2d ago
Apollo Commercial Real Estate Finance shares are trading higher after the company announced it entered into a definitive agreement to sell the company's commercial real estate loan portfolio to Athene Holding.Why LGHL Stock surged +19.37% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$2.65 +19.37% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.74
Lion Group Holding Ltd. (LGHL) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 41/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT
Cap $122.3K
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Is LGHL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-01, Lion Group Holding Ltd. (NASDAQ: LGHL) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 41/100 at a spot price of $2.65 (+19.37% 1D, market cap $122.3K). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, LGHL ranks #977 in composite RQD confidence.
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How does LGHL compare to AXG and EBON in the Financials sector?
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Within the Financials sector (Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service), LGHL carries a Roarable D- (41/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -19.3%. By comparison, AXG (Solowin Holdings Class A Ordinary Share) holds a E grade (30/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $3.9M) and EBON (Ebang International Holdings Inc. (Class A)) posts a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $12.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, LGHL leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while COHN leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LGHL?
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Per LGHL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001806524), Lion Group Holding Ltd. generated $9.4M in revenue (+293.0% YoY), -$5.0M in net income, and -$3.5M in free cash flow against $54.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.74 (+3.30%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (41/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-7.5% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for LGHL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (41/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY LGHL SCORES 41/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (34% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+11/20 pts (27% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 2% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 30.1 (OVERSOLD (<32))
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade D$3.10-11.3% Next Q
49
Q2 (-2Q)Grade D$2.75-9.8% Next Q
46
Q3 (-1Q)Grade D$2.48+6.9% Next Q
44
CurrentGrade D-$2.65-7.2% Hist 90D α
41
Trajectory: D (49) → D- (41)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a LGHL Turnaround Squeeze
While LGHL currently carries a cautious 41/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($6.02) and Max Pain ($2.78) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $2,481.57.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $LGHL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “LGHL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why LGHL Stock surged +19.37% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Lion Group Holding Ltd. (LGHL) surged +19.37% to $2.65, trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($2 – $2363.4). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-19% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($2 – $2363.4) with RSI-14 at 30.1 (OVERSOLD (<32)).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $2.65 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live LGHL Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREBenzinga • 5d ago
9 Financials Stocks Moving In Tuesday's Intraday SessionGainers SoFi Technologies (NASDAQ:SOFI) shares moved upwards by 14.7% to $16.59 during Tuesday's regular session. The company's market cap stands at $18.6 billion. As per the news, the Q3 earnings report came
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring LGHL)
- ✓Walkthrough of LGHL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
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LGHL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -98.26%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-10-30O $2.47H $2.65L $2.06C $2.65VOL 56.1K
RES: $-5.40SUP: $1.52SMA50: $6.02SMA200: $111.4
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
LGHL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on LGHL today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for LGHL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for LGHL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (LGHL)
Financials Rank #977 of 1096
⚔️ AXG vs LGHL Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (LGHL vs. AXG, EBON, PLUT, COHN)
Industry: Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service (64 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Lion Group Holding Ltd. (LGHL) ranks #977 by composite RQD confidence (41/100, grade D-) and #1096 by equity capitalization ($122.3K). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, LGHL leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while COHN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. COHN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with LGHL at 41/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LGHL
ACTIVE
Lion Group Holding Ltd. | D- | 41/100 | — | — | -19.3% | +19.37% | $122.3K | Benchmark Subject |
| AXG Solowin Holdings Class A Ordinary Share | E | 30/100 | — | — | — | -34.86% | $3.9M | /axg-vs-lghl → |
| EBON Ebang International Holdings Inc. (Class A) | D- | 43/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -2.00% | $12.8M | /ebon-vs-lghl → |
| PLUT Plutus Financial Group Limited | E | 23/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -6.38% | $27.0M | /plut-vs-lghl → |
| COHN Cohen & Company Inc. | C+ | 69/100 | — | — | 85.0% | +7.22% | $32.6M | /cohn-vs-lghl → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001806524In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Lion Group Holding Ltd. (LGHL) reported GAAP revenue of $9.4M (+293.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of -$4.9M , and -55.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$5.0M, operating cash flow of -$3.5M, and free cash flow of -$3.5M (+81.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, LGHL closed FY2025 with $54.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $9.4M | -$5.0M | -$3.5M | -$3.5M | $54.6M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | -$4.9M | -$27.4M | -$19.1M | -$19.1M | $36.4M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $21.1M | -$5.3M | $13.4M | $13.4M | — | — |
3. LGHL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs LGHL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Lion Group Holding Ltd. (NASDAQ: LGHL) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 41/100 at a spot price of $2.65 (+19.37% 1D, market cap $122.3K). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, LGHL ranks #977 in composite RQD confidence.
How does LGHL compare to AXG and EBON in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service), LGHL carries a Roarable D- (41/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -19.3%. By comparison, AXG (Solowin Holdings Class A Ordinary Share) holds a E grade (30/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $3.9M) and EBON (Ebang International Holdings Inc. (Class A)) posts a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $12.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, LGHL leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while COHN leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LGHL?
Per LGHL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001806524), Lion Group Holding Ltd. generated $9.4M in revenue (+293.0% YoY), -$5.0M in net income, and -$3.5M in free cash flow against $54.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is LGHL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
LGHL last traded at $2.65 (+19.37% on volume of 111,552 shares), positioning the stock -55.98% below its 50-day simple moving average ($6.02) and -97.62% below its 200-day simple moving average ($111.42). Across its 52-week range of $2.00 to $2,363.40, LGHL sits at the 0.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 30.1 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($2.32 to $2.98).
LGHL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is LGHL stock moving today?
Why LGHL Stock surged +19.37% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-19% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.