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Lion Group Holding Ltd. (LGHL) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

Q: Should I buy, hold, or sell LGHL stock right now?

Lion Group Holding Ltd. (LGHL) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell — SELL) with 41/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-19% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

Q: What is LGHL's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

LGHL's 12-month base price target is $2.45 (range $1.91 to $2481.57), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

$2.65 +19.37% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.74

Lion Group Holding Ltd. (LGHL) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 41/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (41/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $122.3K

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.74 (+3.30%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (41/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-7.5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for LGHL)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (41/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY LGHL SCORES 41/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (34% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+11/20 pts (27% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 2% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 30.1 (OVERSOLD (<32))

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$3.10-11.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$2.75-9.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$2.48+6.9% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$2.65-7.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (49) → D- (41)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a LGHL Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While LGHL currently carries a cautious 41/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($6.02) and Max Pain ($2.78) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $2,481.57.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $LGHL• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “LGHL Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 41%NO 59%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMOVERSOLD (<32)

30.130 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

3 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE2% OF RANGE

L: $2$2.65H: $2,363

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 5 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 17 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 19 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on LGHL

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (25)

-19.3% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 2.80% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

BEARISH (40)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 3/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (47)

17/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 11/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like LGHL

✓Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring LGHL)

✓Walkthrough of LGHL's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

LGHL // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -98.26%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT

2026-10-30O $2.47H $2.65L $2.06C $2.65VOL 56.1K

RES: $-5.40SUP: $1.52SMA50: $6.02SMA200: $111.4

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

LGHL Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 LGHL Butterfly Map → + Track LGHL →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on LGHL today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for LGHL. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for LGHL today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (LGHL)

Financials Rank #977 of 1096 ⚔️ AXG vs LGHL Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (LGHL vs. AXG, EBON, PLUT, COHN)

Industry: Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service (64 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Lion Group Holding Ltd. (LGHL) ranks #977 by composite RQD confidence (41/100, grade D-) and #1096 by equity capitalization ($122.3K). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, LGHL leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while COHN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 85.0% ROIC and — gross margin. COHN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with LGHL at 41/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
LGHL ACTIVE Lion Group Holding Ltd.	D-	41/100	—	—	-19.3%	+19.37%	$122.3K	Benchmark Subject
AXG Solowin Holdings Class A Ordinary Share	E	30/100	—	—	—	-34.86%	$3.9M	/axg-vs-lghl →
EBON Ebang International Holdings Inc. (Class A)	D-	43/100	—	—	-35.0%	-2.00%	$12.8M	/ebon-vs-lghl →
PLUT Plutus Financial Group Limited	E	23/100	—	—	-35.0%	-6.38%	$27.0M	/plut-vs-lghl →
COHN Cohen & Company Inc.	C+	69/100	—	—	85.0%	+7.22%	$32.6M	/cohn-vs-lghl →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001806524

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Lion Group Holding Ltd. (LGHL) reported GAAP revenue of $9.4M (+293.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of -$4.9M , and -55.5% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$5.0M, operating cash flow of -$3.5M, and free cash flow of -$3.5M (+81.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, LGHL closed FY2025 with $54.6M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$9.4M	-$5.0M	-$3.5M	-$3.5M	$54.6M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	-$4.9M	-$27.4M	-$19.1M	-$19.1M	$36.4M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$21.1M	-$5.3M	$13.4M	$13.4M	—	—

3. LGHL Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is LGHL stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Lion Group Holding Ltd. (NASDAQ: LGHL) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 41/100 at a spot price of $2.65 (+19.37% 1D, market cap $122.3K). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 11/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, LGHL ranks #977 in composite RQD confidence.

How does LGHL compare to AXG and EBON in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Investment Bankers/Brokers/Service), LGHL carries a Roarable D- (41/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -19.3%. By comparison, AXG (Solowin Holdings Class A Ordinary Share) holds a E grade (30/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $3.9M) and EBON (Ebang International Holdings Inc. (Class A)) posts a D- grade (43/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $12.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, LGHL leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while COHN leads on capital efficiency (85.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for LGHL?

Per LGHL's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001806524), Lion Group Holding Ltd. generated $9.4M in revenue (+293.0% YoY), -$5.0M in net income, and -$3.5M in free cash flow against $54.6M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is LGHL trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

LGHL last traded at $2.65 (+19.37% on volume of 111,552 shares), positioning the stock -55.98% below its 50-day simple moving average ($6.02) and -97.62% below its 200-day simple moving average ($111.42). Across its 52-week range of $2.00 to $2,363.40, LGHL sits at the 0.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 30.1 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($2.32 to $2.98).

LGHL Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell LGHL stock right now?

Lion Group Holding Ltd. (LGHL) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell — SELL) with 41/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-19% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is LGHL's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

LGHL's 12-month base price target is $2.45 (range $1.91 to $2481.57), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: LGHL RQD Cockpit LGHL 12M Forecast LGHL Earnings & Move LGHL Dividends & DRIP LGHL Insiders & 13F LGHL Whale Options LGHL Profit Sankey LGHL News & Why