Stock Ratings / Financials / KG / dividends

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Kestrel Group Ltd. (KG) Dividend Safety Gauge & 10-Year DRIP Compounder

$4.16 -1.19% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.14

Kestrel Group Ltd. (KG) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 47/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (47/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $32.5M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $4.14 (-0.40%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 9/20 (D) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (47/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for KG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (47/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY KG SCORES 47/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (26% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 2% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 32.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (21% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 3/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning6/20 pts (-14 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-14 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$4.91-6.3% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$4.60+5.7% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$4.86-14.4% Next Q

Current

Grade D$4.16-5.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (55) → D (47)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a KG Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While KG currently carries a cautious 47/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (6/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($5.76) and Max Pain ($4.37) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $25.08.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Cannibal Buyback (-0.68% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $KG• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “KG Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 47%NO 53%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CASH DIVIDEND + BUYBACK YIELD

1.8% Total Yield

0% Cash ($0.00/yr) + 1.8% Buybacks

PAYOUT SAFETY SPEEDOMETER

74/100 • REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS

FREE CASH FLOW PAYOUT RATIO

0% (100% Reinvested)

Retains cash flow for R&D and share repurchases

INTERACTIVE DRIP & SHAREHOLDER-YIELD COMPOUNDER (16.3% EST. ANNUAL)

$10,000 Compounded Over 10 Years → $45,269

Est. Year-10 Shareholder Yield: $815/yr

Starting Investment: $10,000

Compounding Horizon: 10 Years

$11.6K

Yr 1

$13.5K

Yr 2

$15.7K

Yr 3

$18.3K

Yr 4

$21.3K

Yr 5

$24.7K

Yr 6

$28.8K

Yr 7

$33.5K

Yr 8

$38.9K

Yr 9

$45.3K

Yr 10

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring KG)

✓Walkthrough of KG's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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KG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -57.20%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-10-30O $3.97H $4.16L $3.84C $4.16VOL 3.1K

RES: $4.96SUP: $3.62SMA50: $5.76SMA200: $9.59

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

KG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 KG Butterfly Map → + Track KG →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +180.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on KG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for KG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for KG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (KG)

Financials Rank #913 of 1096 ⚔️ PRHI vs KG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (KG vs. PRHI, FGC, OXBR, JRVR)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Kestrel Group Ltd. (KG) ranks #913 by composite RQD confidence (47/100, grade D) and #1035 by equity capitalization ($32.5M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, JRVR leads on earnings valuation at 3.8x trailing P/E, while KG leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 36.4% ROIC and — gross margin. KG currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 47/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
KG ACTIVE Kestrel Group Ltd.	D	47/100	—	—	36.4%	-1.19%	$32.5M	Benchmark Subject
PRHI Presurance Holdings Inc.	D	45/100	—	—	-35.0%	+2.98%	$27.2M	/prhi-vs-kg →
FGC FG Communities Holdings Inc.	E	29/100	—	—	-35.0%	-10.53%	$23.4M	/fgc-vs-kg →
OXBR Oxbridge Re Holdings Limited	E	32/100	—	—	-35.0%	-4.82%	$5.9M	/oxbr-vs-kg →
JRVR James River Group Holdings Inc.	D	46/100	3.8x	—	8.8%	+1.82%	$181.3M	/jrvr-vs-kg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2024–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002055116

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Kestrel Group Ltd. (KG) reported GAAP revenue of $34.0M (+785.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.8M ) , GAAP net income of $46.7M, operating cash flow of -$96.1M, and free cash flow of -$96.1M (-7488.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, KG closed FY2025 with $1.01B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 3/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$34.0M	$46.7M	-$96.1M	-$96.1M	$1.01B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$3.8M	-$1.3M	-$1.3M	-$1.3M	$5.5M	—

3. KG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is KG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Kestrel Group Ltd. (NASDAQ: KG) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 47/100 at a spot price of $4.16 (-1.19% 1D, market cap $32.5M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 9/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 6/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 10/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, KG ranks #913 in composite RQD confidence.

How does KG compare to PRHI and FGC in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), KG carries a Roarable D (47/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 36.4%. By comparison, PRHI (Presurance Holdings Inc.) holds a D grade (45/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $27.2M) and FGC (FG Communities Holdings Inc.) posts a E grade (29/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $23.4M). Among the 5-stock peer group, JRVR leads on earnings multiple (3.8x) while KG leads on capital efficiency (36.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for KG?

Per KG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002055116), Kestrel Group Ltd. generated $34.0M in revenue (+785.1% YoY), $46.7M in net income, and -$96.1M in free cash flow against $1.01B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is KG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

KG last traded at $4.16 (-1.19% on volume of 38,326 shares), positioning the stock -27.78% below its 50-day simple moving average ($5.76) and -56.62% below its 200-day simple moving average ($9.59). Across its 52-week range of $3.84 to $23.89, KG sits at the 1.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 32.5 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($3.64 to $4.68).

KG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Does KG pay a dividend and is it safe?

Kestrel Group Ltd. (KG) offers a 0% cash dividend yield ($0.00 annualized) and 1.8% total shareholder yield including buybacks. Roarable rates its payout coverage as REINVESTING IN GROWTH + BUYBACKS.

Direct Sub-Reports: KG RQD Cockpit KG 12M Forecast KG Earnings & Move KG Dividends & DRIP KG Insiders & 13F KG Whale Options KG Profit Sankey KG News & Why