MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why KBDC Stock advanced +1.72% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$13.04 +1.72% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.06
Kayne Anderson BDC Inc. (KBDC) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 46/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID
Cap $861.1M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $13.06 (+0.12%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 7/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (46/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-6.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-5.4% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for KBDC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (46/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY KBDC SCORES 46/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+12/20 pts (26% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±4.1% realized swing band)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (26% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 24% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 53.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)
Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade E$12.45-0.2% Next Q
38
Q2 (-2Q)Grade D$12.43+2.7% Next Q
41
Q3 (-1Q)Grade D$12.76+2.2% Next Q
43
CurrentGrade D$13.04-6.1% Hist 90D α
46
Trajectory: E (38) → D (46)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a KBDC Turnaround Squeeze
While KBDC currently carries a cautious 46/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($12.95) and Max Pain ($13.69) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $16.66.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.92% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $KBDC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “KBDC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why KBDC Stock advanced +1.72% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Kayne Anderson BDC Inc. (KBDC) advanced +1.72% to $13.04, trading at 24% of its 52-week range ($12.14 – $15.87). Stretched risk/reward at 9x P/E (-8% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 24% of its 52-week range ($12.14 – $15.87) with RSI-14 at 53.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±4.1% around $13.04 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live KBDC Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring KBDC)
- ✓Walkthrough of KBDC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
KBDC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -12.48%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-10-30O $13.10H $13.10L $12.83C $13.04VOL 506.4K
RES: $13.19SUP: $11.91SMA50: $12.95SMA200: $13.80
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
KBDC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-2.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on KBDC today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for KBDC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for KBDC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (KBDC)
Industrials Rank #336 of 485
⚔️ HSLV vs KBDC Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (KBDC vs. HSLV, PSUS, CNL, DEC)
Industry: Diversified Equities (43 Tracked Issuers)Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Kayne Anderson BDC Inc. (KBDC) ranks #336 by composite RQD confidence (46/100, grade D) and #263 by equity capitalization ($861.1M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, KBDC leads on earnings valuation at 9.2x trailing P/E, while DEC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.5% ROIC and — gross margin. PSUS currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 61/100 (C-) compared with KBDC at 46/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KBDC
ACTIVE
Kayne Anderson BDC Inc. | D | 46/100 | 9.2x | — | -8.4% | +1.72% | $861.1M | Benchmark Subject |
| HSLV Highlander Silver Corp. | D+ | 56/100 | — | — | — | -2.75% | $934.2M | /hslv-vs-kbdc → |
| PSUS Pershing Square USA Ltd. | C- | 61/100 | — | — | — | +0.79% | $1.00B | /psus-vs-kbdc → |
| CNL Collective Mining Ltd. | D | 50/100 | — | — | — | -2.85% | $1.04B | /cnl-vs-kbdc → |
| DEC Diversified Energy Company | D | 51/100 | — | — | 11.5% | -0.41% | $1.12B | /dec-vs-kbdc → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001747172In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Kayne Anderson BDC Inc. (KBDC) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $93.7M, operating cash flow of -$98.7M, and free cash flow of -$98.7M (+81.9% YoY). On the balance sheet, KBDC closed FY2025 with $2.29B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | $93.7M | -$98.7M | -$98.7M | $2.29B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | $131.9M | -$544.5M | -$544.5M | $2.08B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $0 | $77.1M | -$110.1M | -$110.1M | — | — |
3. KBDC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs KBDC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Kayne Anderson BDC Inc. (NYSE: KBDC) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 46/100 at a spot price of $13.04 (+1.72% 1D, market cap $861.1M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, KBDC ranks #336 in composite RQD confidence.
How does KBDC compare to HSLV and PSUS in the Industrials sector?
Within the Industrials sector (Diversified Equities), KBDC carries a Roarable D (46/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 9.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -8.4%. By comparison, HSLV (Highlander Silver Corp.) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $934.2M) and PSUS (Pershing Square USA Ltd.) posts a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.00B). Among the 5-stock peer group, KBDC leads on earnings multiple (9.2x) while DEC leads on capital efficiency (11.5% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for KBDC?
Per KBDC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001747172), Kayne Anderson BDC Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $93.7M in net income, and -$98.7M in free cash flow against $2.29B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is KBDC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
KBDC last traded at $13.04 (+1.72% on volume of 197,821 shares), positioning the stock +0.69% above its 50-day simple moving average ($12.95) and -5.51% below its 200-day simple moving average ($13.80). Across its 52-week range of $12.14 to $15.87, KBDC sits at the 24.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 53.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.1% ($12.51 to $13.57).
KBDC Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is KBDC stock moving today?
Why KBDC Stock advanced +1.72% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 9x P/E (-8% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.