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John Marshall Bancorp Inc. (JMSB) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$23.16 +1.18% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $23.17

John Marshall Bancorp Inc. (JMSB) carries a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold) with 67/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C+ • HOLD / WATCH Cap $326.8M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $23.16 (+0.02%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 0.6% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 67/100 (C+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 56.4% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk B-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+4.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for JMSB)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (67/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY JMSB SCORES 67/100 (C+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (22% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 81% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 47.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$22.80+0.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C+$22.90+3.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C+$23.64-2% Next Q

Current

Grade C+$23.16+1.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (59) → C+ (67)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the JMSB Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 67/100 (C+) score, JMSB faces multiple-compression risk if 15.4x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($23.02) or 200D SMA ($21.63) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($24.10) toward Bear Floor ($18.80).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $JMSB• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “JMSB Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 67%NO 33%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

47.930 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCORESOLID CORE (5–6)

5 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE81% OF RANGE

L: $19$23.16H: $24

1. Money & Cash Health● MIXED

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Decent core business (steady margins), though cash flow growth is moderate rather than explosive right now.

Factor Grade: B-RQD 14 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● NEUTRAL

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Big funds and company insiders are mostly holding steady without aggressive buying or panic selling.

Factor Grade: CRQD 25 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● ALL CLEAR

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

Clean SEC fine-print check with low hidden accounting risk and favorable interest-rate weather.

Factor Grade: B-RQD 28 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish on JMSB

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BULLISH (70)

8.0% ROIC with 42.0% gross margin and 6.74% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 5/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BULLISH (67)

25/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 15/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like JMSB

✓Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (JMSB Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

JMSB // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +10.29%▲ ASCENDING TRIANGLE

2026-10-30O $23.16H $23.18L $22.77C $23.16VOL 131.1K

RES: $23.97SUP: $22.67SMA50: $23.02SMA200: $21.63

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

JMSB Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 JMSB Butterfly Map → + Track JMSB →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

7.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on JMSB today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for JMSB. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for JMSB today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (JMSB)

Financials Rank #259 of 1096 ⚔️ COSO vs JMSB Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (JMSB vs. COSO, NEWT, BCML, CBNA)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, John Marshall Bancorp Inc. (JMSB) ranks #259 by composite RQD confidence (67/100, grade C+) and #794 by equity capitalization ($326.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NEWT leads on earnings valuation at 5.3x trailing P/E, while NEWT leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 15.2% ROIC and — gross margin. COSO currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with JMSB at 67/100 (C+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
JMSB ACTIVE John Marshall Bancorp Inc.	C+	67/100	15.4x	—	8.0%	+1.18%	$326.8M	Benchmark Subject
COSO CoastalSouth Bancshares Inc.	B-	71/100	13.2x	—	9.6%	+0.50%	$328.3M	/coso-vs-jmsb →
NEWT NewtekOne Inc.	D	47/100	5.3x	—	15.2%	-3.93%	$318.0M	/newt-vs-jmsb →
BCML BayCom Corp	C+	68/100	14.1x	—	7.1%	+0.95%	$336.6M	/bcml-vs-jmsb →
CBNA Chain Bridge Bancorp Inc. (Class A)	D+	53/100	16.7x	—	12.0%	+1.14%	$337.3M	/cbna-vs-jmsb →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001710482

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), John Marshall Bancorp Inc. (JMSB) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $21.2M, operating cash flow of $22.6M, and free cash flow of $22.0M (+31.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, JMSB closed FY2025 with $2.33B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$21.2M	$22.6M	$22.0M	$2.33B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$17.1M	$17.3M	$16.8M	$2.23B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$5.2M	$18.0M	$18.0M	—	—

3. JMSB Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is JMSB stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, John Marshall Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: JMSB) is rated C+ (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 67/100 at a spot price of $23.16 (+1.18% 1D, market cap $326.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, JMSB ranks #259 in composite RQD confidence.

How does JMSB compare to COSO and NEWT in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), JMSB carries a Roarable C+ (67/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 15.4x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 8.0%. By comparison, COSO (CoastalSouth Bancshares Inc.) holds a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 13.2x, ROIC 9.6%, cap $328.3M) and NEWT (NewtekOne Inc.) posts a D grade (47/100 RQD, P/E 5.3x, ROIC 15.2%, cap $318.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NEWT leads on earnings multiple (5.3x) while NEWT leads on capital efficiency (15.2% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for JMSB?

Per JMSB's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001710482), John Marshall Bancorp Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $21.2M in net income, and $22.0M in free cash flow against $2.33B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is JMSB trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

JMSB last traded at $23.16 (+1.18% on volume of 132,104 shares), positioning the stock +0.61% above its 50-day simple moving average ($23.02) and +7.07% above its 200-day simple moving average ($21.63). Across its 52-week range of $18.60 to $24.26, JMSB sits at the 80.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 47.9 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.2% ($22.19 to $24.13).

JMSB Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell JMSB stock right now?

John Marshall Bancorp Inc. (JMSB) currently earns a Roarable Rating of C+ (Hold — HOLD) with 67/100 RQD Confidence. Solid steady margins (8% return on capital), mixed timing at 15x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.

What is JMSB's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

JMSB's 12-month base price target is $24.1 (range $18.8 to $28.44), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: JMSB RQD Cockpit JMSB 12M Forecast JMSB Earnings & Move JMSB Dividends & DRIP JMSB Insiders & 13F JMSB Whale Options JMSB Profit Sankey JMSB News & Why