Stock Ratings / Financials / JCAP / insiders

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Jefferson Capital Inc. (JCAP) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$19.93 +2.52% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.07

Jefferson Capital Inc. (JCAP) earns a Roarable Rating of B- (Buy) with 71/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 55% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 71/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 14% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.4% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B- • BUY Cap $1.14B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on JCAP Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is JCAP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-02, Jefferson Capital Inc. (NASDAQ: JCAP) is rated B- (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 71/100 at a spot price of $19.93 (+2.52% 1D, market cap $1.14B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 19/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 15/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 19/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, JCAP ranks #104 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does JCAP compare to NCZ and BST in the Financials sector?

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Within the Financials sector (Finance Companies), JCAP carries a Roarable B- (71/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 6.1x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 55.2%. By comparison, NCZ (Virtus Convertible & Income Fund II of) holds a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.09B) and BST (BlackRock Science and Technology Trust of) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.08B). Among the 5-stock peer group, JCAP leads on earnings multiple (6.1x) while JCAP leads on capital efficiency (55.2% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for JCAP?

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Per JCAP's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002046042), Jefferson Capital Inc. generated $613.3M in revenue (+41.5% YoY), $188.0M in net income, and $268.8M in free cash flow against $2.09B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $20.07 (+0.69%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 19/20 (A+) • 43.8% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 71/100 (B-) historically ranked in the Top 14% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+6.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 68.4% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B-

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B+ · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+5.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for JCAP)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (71/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY JCAP SCORES 71/100 (B-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+19/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 43.8% FCF Margin ($268.8M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+19/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade A-$20.35-0.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B+$20.31-0.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B+$20.14-1% Next Q

Current

Grade B-$19.93+6.8% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: A- (79) → B- (71)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the JCAP Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 71/100 (B-) score, JCAP faces multiple-compression risk if 6.1x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-3.20% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($20.42) or 200D SMA ($19.98) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($21.10) toward Bear Floor ($16.34).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $JCAP• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “JCAP Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 71%NO 29%Trade / Inspect Odds →

SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

JCAP Smart-Money Thermometer: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →

▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (JCAP)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on JCAP. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (JCAP Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

JCAP // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -0.90%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-11-02O $19.44H $19.93L $19.44C $19.93VOL 242.8K

RES: $23.22SUP: $19.24SMA50: $20.42SMA200: $19.98

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

JCAP Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 JCAP Butterfly Map → + Track JCAP →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-10.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +41.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on JCAP today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for JCAP. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for JCAP today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (JCAP)

Financials Rank #104 of 1096 ⚔️ NCZ vs JCAP Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (JCAP vs. NCZ, BST, HQH, NCV)

Industry: Finance Companies (27 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Jefferson Capital Inc. (JCAP) ranks #104 by composite RQD confidence (71/100, grade B-) and #528 by equity capitalization ($1.14B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, JCAP leads on earnings valuation at 6.1x trailing P/E, while JCAP leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 55.2% ROIC and — gross margin. JCAP currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 71/100 (B-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
JCAP ACTIVE Jefferson Capital Inc.	B-	71/100	6.1x	—	55.2%	+2.52%	$1.14B	Benchmark Subject
NCZ Virtus Convertible & Income Fund II of	D	44/100	—	—	—	-1.38%	$1.09B	/ncz-vs-jcap →
BST BlackRock Science and Technology Trust of	D+	52/100	—	—	—	-0.63%	$1.08B	/bst-vs-jcap →
HQH abrdn Healthcare Investors	D+	54/100	—	—	—	+2.34%	$1.01B	/hqh-vs-jcap →
NCV Virtus Convertible & Income Fund of	D	44/100	—	—	—	0.00%	$1.40B	/ncv-vs-jcap →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002046042

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Jefferson Capital Inc. (JCAP) reported GAAP revenue of $613.3M (+41.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $433.3M , and +89.8% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $188.0M, operating cash flow of $268.8M, and free cash flow of $268.8M (+59.8% YoY). On the balance sheet, JCAP closed FY2025 with $2.09B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 7/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$613.3M	$188.0M	$268.8M	$268.8M	$2.09B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$433.3M	$128.9M	$168.2M	$168.2M	$1.65B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$323.1M	$111.5M	$120.2M	$120.2M	—	—

3. JCAP Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is JCAP stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does JCAP compare to NCZ and BST in the Financials sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for JCAP?

Where is JCAP trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

JCAP last traded at $19.93 (+2.52% on volume of 242,824 shares), positioning the stock -2.40% below its 50-day simple moving average ($20.42) and -0.25% below its 200-day simple moving average ($19.98). Across its 52-week range of $15.50 to $24.44, JCAP sits at the 49.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.6 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.5% ($18.83 to $21.03).

JCAP Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Are JCAP insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies JCAP leadership and institutional positioning as: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION.

Direct Sub-Reports: JCAP RQD Cockpit JCAP 12M Forecast JCAP Earnings & Move JCAP Dividends & DRIP JCAP Insiders & 13F JCAP Whale Options JCAP Profit Sankey JCAP News & Why