MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why JBIO Stock dropped -2.40% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$14.24 -2.40% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $14.15
Jade Biosciences Inc. (JBIO) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 36/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT
Cap $905.6M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $14.15 (-0.62%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (36/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.9% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for JBIO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (36/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY JBIO SCORES 36/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (28% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+8/20 pts (22% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade D$14.39-6.4% Next Q
44
Q2 (-2Q)Grade D$13.47+8.3% Next Q
41
Q3 (-1Q)Grade E$14.59-2.4% Next Q
39
CurrentGrade D-$14.24-8.3% Hist 90D α
36
Trajectory: D (44) → D- (36)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a JBIO Turnaround Squeeze
While JBIO currently carries a cautious 36/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($16.49) and Max Pain ($14.95) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $29.40.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $JBIO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “JBIO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why JBIO Stock dropped -2.40% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Jade Biosciences Inc. (JBIO) dropped -2.40% to $14.24, trading at 30% of its 52-week range ($8.36 – $28). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 30% of its 52-week range ($8.36 – $28) with RSI-14 at 40.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $14.24 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live JBIO Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring JBIO)
- ✓Walkthrough of JBIO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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JBIO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -41.64%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $14.13H $14.35L $13.83C $14.24VOL 682.3K
RES: $23.50SUP: $12.66SMA50: $16.49SMA200: $18.24
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
JBIO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on JBIO today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for JBIO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for JBIO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (JBIO)
Health Care Rank #777 of 1016
⚔️ OBX vs JBIO Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (JBIO vs. OBX, ALMS, ANRO, CYRX)
Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Jade Biosciences Inc. (JBIO) ranks #777 by composite RQD confidence (36/100, grade D-) and #375 by equity capitalization ($905.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CYRX leads on earnings valuation at 11.8x trailing P/E, while CYRX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -11.5% ROIC and 47.1% gross margin. OBX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 39/100 (D-) compared with JBIO at 36/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JBIO
ACTIVE
Jade Biosciences Inc. | D- | 36/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -2.40% | $905.6M | Benchmark Subject |
| OBX Obsidian Therapeutics Inc. | D- | 39/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -0.48% | $896.9M | /obx-vs-jbio → |
| ALMS Alumis Inc. | E | 23/100 | — | — | -35.0% | -3.37% | $891.8M | /alms-vs-jbio → |
| ANRO Alto Neuroscience Inc. | D- | 38/100 | — | — | -35.0% | +0.60% | $921.0M | /anro-vs-jbio → |
| CYRX CryoPort Inc. | D- | 38/100 | 11.8x | 47.1% | -11.5% | -1.88% | $926.4M | /cyrx-vs-jbio → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001798749In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Jade Biosciences Inc. (JBIO) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$127.4M, operating cash flow of -$94.7M, and free cash flow of -$94.9M (-33.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, JBIO closed FY2025 with $349.8M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | -$127.4M | -$94.7M | -$94.9M | $349.8M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | -$69.6M | -$71.2M | -$71.2M | $72.8M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $0 | -$75.5M | -$56.8M | -$56.8M | — | — |
3. JBIO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs JBIO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Jade Biosciences Inc. (NASDAQ: JBIO) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 36/100 at a spot price of $14.24 (-2.40% 1D, market cap $905.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, JBIO ranks #777 in composite RQD confidence.
How does JBIO compare to OBX and ALMS in the Health Care sector?
Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), JBIO carries a Roarable D- (36/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, OBX (Obsidian Therapeutics Inc.) holds a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $896.9M) and ALMS (Alumis Inc.) posts a E grade (23/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $891.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CYRX leads on earnings multiple (11.8x) while CYRX leads on capital efficiency (-11.5% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for JBIO?
Per JBIO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001798749), Jade Biosciences Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$127.4M in net income, and -$94.9M in free cash flow against $349.8M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is JBIO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
JBIO last traded at $14.24 (-2.40% on volume of 896,097 shares), positioning the stock -13.64% below its 50-day simple moving average ($16.49) and -21.93% below its 200-day simple moving average ($18.24). Across its 52-week range of $8.36 to $28.00, JBIO sits at the 29.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 40.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($12.46 to $16.02).
JBIO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is JBIO stock moving today?
Why JBIO Stock dropped -2.40% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.