Stock Ratings / Health Care / JBIO / financials

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Jade Biosciences Inc. (JBIO) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$14.24 -2.40% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $14.15

Jade Biosciences Inc. (JBIO) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 36/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (36/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $905.6M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $14.15 (-0.62%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (36/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-8.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for JBIO)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (36/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY JBIO SCORES 36/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (28% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+8/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0% FCF Margin ($0 FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$14.39-6.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$13.47+8.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$14.59-2.4% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$14.24-8.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (44) → D- (36)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a JBIO Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While JBIO currently carries a cautious 36/100 (D-) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($16.49) and Max Pain ($14.95) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $29.40.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+2.48% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $JBIO• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “JBIO Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 36%NO 64%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How JBIO Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $4.00B

FY24

Rev $4.00B

FY25

Rev $4.00B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$4.00B	52%	-2.8%	-$127.4M	-$94.9M	-36.7%
FY 2024	$4.00B	52%	-1.9%	-$69.6M	-$71.2M	-45%
FY 2023	$4.00B	52%	-2%	-$75.5M	-$56.8M	-35%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring JBIO)

✓Walkthrough of JBIO's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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JBIO // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -41.64%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $14.13H $14.35L $13.83C $14.24VOL 682.3K

RES: $23.50SUP: $12.66SMA50: $16.49SMA200: $18.24

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

JBIO Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 JBIO Butterfly Map → + Track JBIO →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on JBIO today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for JBIO. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for JBIO today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (JBIO)

Health Care Rank #777 of 1016 ⚔️ OBX vs JBIO Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (JBIO vs. OBX, ALMS, ANRO, CYRX)

Industry: Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations (489 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Jade Biosciences Inc. (JBIO) ranks #777 by composite RQD confidence (36/100, grade D-) and #375 by equity capitalization ($905.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, CYRX leads on earnings valuation at 11.8x trailing P/E, while CYRX leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -11.5% ROIC and 47.1% gross margin. OBX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 39/100 (D-) compared with JBIO at 36/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
JBIO ACTIVE Jade Biosciences Inc.	D-	36/100	—	—	-35.0%	-2.40%	$905.6M	Benchmark Subject
OBX Obsidian Therapeutics Inc.	D-	39/100	—	—	-35.0%	-0.48%	$896.9M	/obx-vs-jbio →
ALMS Alumis Inc.	E	23/100	—	—	-35.0%	-3.37%	$891.8M	/alms-vs-jbio →
ANRO Alto Neuroscience Inc.	D-	38/100	—	—	-35.0%	+0.60%	$921.0M	/anro-vs-jbio →
CYRX CryoPort Inc.	D-	38/100	11.8x	47.1%	-11.5%	-1.88%	$926.4M	/cyrx-vs-jbio →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001798749

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Jade Biosciences Inc. (JBIO) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of -$127.4M, operating cash flow of -$94.7M, and free cash flow of -$94.9M (-33.3% YoY). On the balance sheet, JBIO closed FY2025 with $349.8M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	-$127.4M	-$94.7M	-$94.9M	$349.8M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	-$69.6M	-$71.2M	-$71.2M	$72.8M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	-$75.5M	-$56.8M	-$56.8M	—	—

3. JBIO Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is JBIO stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Jade Biosciences Inc. (NASDAQ: JBIO) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 36/100 at a spot price of $14.24 (-2.40% 1D, market cap $905.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 7/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, JBIO ranks #777 in composite RQD confidence.

How does JBIO compare to OBX and ALMS in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Biotechnology: Pharmaceutical Preparations), JBIO carries a Roarable D- (36/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, OBX (Obsidian Therapeutics Inc.) holds a D- grade (39/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $896.9M) and ALMS (Alumis Inc.) posts a E grade (23/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $891.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, CYRX leads on earnings multiple (11.8x) while CYRX leads on capital efficiency (-11.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for JBIO?

Per JBIO's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001798749), Jade Biosciences Inc. generated $0 in revenue, -$127.4M in net income, and -$94.9M in free cash flow against $349.8M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is JBIO trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

JBIO last traded at $14.24 (-2.40% on volume of 896,097 shares), positioning the stock -13.64% below its 50-day simple moving average ($16.49) and -21.93% below its 200-day simple moving average ($18.24). Across its 52-week range of $8.36 to $28.00, JBIO sits at the 29.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 40.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($12.46 to $16.02).

JBIO Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Jade Biosciences Inc. (JBIO)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), JBIO converted $4.0B of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $0 in free cash flow (0% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: JBIO RQD Cockpit JBIO 12M Forecast JBIO Earnings & Move JBIO Dividends & DRIP JBIO Insiders & 13F JBIO Whale Options JBIO Profit Sankey JBIO News & Why