Stock Ratings / Health Care / INNV / forecast

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InnovAge Holding Corp. (INNV) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$9.24 +1.54% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.25

InnovAge Holding Corp. (INNV) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 57/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.26B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.25 (+0.09%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 3.1% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk C+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for INNV)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (57/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY INNV SCORES 57/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (26% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 61% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 45.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 3.1% FCF Margin ($26.6M FCF) & 18% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 13 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$9.10-2.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$8.85+7.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$9.55-3.2% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$9.24-0.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (49) → D+ (57)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the INNV Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 57/100 (D+) score, INNV faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($9.84) or 200D SMA ($9.06) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($9.20) toward Bear Floor ($7.18).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $INNV• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “INNV Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 28, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 57%NO 43%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your INNV Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $9.24: 1082.3 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $7.18

$7,771

$-2,229 (-22.3%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $9.20

$9,957

$-43 (-0.4%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $13.27

$14,361

+$4,361 (+43.6%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (32 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 6

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$10	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$12	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$8	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring INNV)

✓Walkthrough of INNV's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

INNV // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +13.37%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-10-30O $9.23H $9.33L $9.14C $9.24VOL 592.9K

RES: $11.80SUP: $8.83SMA50: $9.84SMA200: $9.06

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

INNV Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 INNV Butterfly Map → + Track INNV →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +11.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on INNV today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for INNV. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for INNV today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (INNV)

Health Care Rank #253 of 1016 ⚔️ USPH vs INNV Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (INNV vs. USPH, OMDA, PNTG, TDOC)

Industry: Medical/Nursing Services (29 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, InnovAge Holding Corp. (INNV) ranks #253 by composite RQD confidence (57/100, grade D+) and #331 by equity capitalization ($1.26B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, USPH leads on earnings valuation at 32.6x trailing P/E, while USPH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.5% ROIC and 19.2% gross margin. USPH currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 64/100 (C) compared with INNV at 57/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
INNV ACTIVE InnovAge Holding Corp.	D+	57/100	—	18.0%	-10.2%	+1.54%	$1.26B	Benchmark Subject
USPH U.S. Physical Therapy Inc.	C	64/100	32.6x	19.2%	11.5%	+1.47%	$1.29B	/usph-vs-innv →
OMDA Omada Health Inc.	D+	56/100	—	65.7%	-15.7%	+2.45%	$1.20B	/omda-vs-innv →
PNTG The Pennant Group Inc.	D+	56/100	50.2x	—	11.0%	+0.76%	$1.48B	/pntg-vs-innv →
TDOC Teladoc Health Inc.	D+	56/100	—	—	-17.0%	+26.89%	$1.59B	/tdoc-vs-innv →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-06-30 • CIK 0001834376

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30), InnovAge Holding Corp. (INNV) reported GAAP revenue of $853.7M (+11.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $763.9M , and +24.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$30.3M, operating cash flow of $32.9M, and free cash flow of $26.6M (+159.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, INNV closed FY2025 with $527.5M in total assets against $56.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.47, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-06-30	$853.7M	-$30.3M	$32.9M	$26.6M	$527.5M	$56.0M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-06-30	$763.9M	-$21.3M	-$36.9M	-$44.8M	$524.8M	$59.8M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-06-30	$688.1M	-$40.7M	$20.2M	$20.2M	—	—

3. INNV Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is INNV stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, InnovAge Holding Corp. (NASDAQ: INNV) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $9.24 (+1.54% 1D, market cap $1.26B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, INNV ranks #253 in composite RQD confidence.

How does INNV compare to USPH and OMDA in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Medical/Nursing Services), INNV carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 18.0%, and ROIC of -10.2%. By comparison, USPH (U.S. Physical Therapy Inc.) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 32.6x, ROIC 11.5%, cap $1.29B) and OMDA (Omada Health Inc.) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -15.7%, cap $1.20B). Among the 5-stock peer group, USPH leads on earnings multiple (32.6x) while USPH leads on capital efficiency (11.5% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for INNV?

Per INNV's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30, CIK 0001834376), InnovAge Holding Corp. generated $853.7M in revenue (+11.8% YoY), -$30.3M in net income, and $26.6M in free cash flow against $527.5M in total assets and $56.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is INNV trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

INNV last traded at $9.24 (+1.54% on volume of 585,553 shares), positioning the stock -6.10% below its 50-day simple moving average ($9.84) and +1.99% above its 200-day simple moving average ($9.06). Across its 52-week range of $3.94 to $12.64, INNV sits at the 60.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.3% ($8.57 to $9.91).

INNV Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is INNV's 12-month stock price target?

InnovAge Holding Corp. (INNV) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $9.2 (-0.4% from $9.24), with a bull-case target of $13.27 and a bear-case floor of $7.18.

Is INNV stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates INNV D+ (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 57/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: INNV RQD Cockpit INNV 12M Forecast INNV Earnings & Move INNV Dividends & DRIP INNV Insiders & 13F INNV Whale Options INNV Profit Sankey INNV News & Why