Stock Ratings / Health Care / INNV / earnings

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InnovAge Holding Corp. (INNV) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±7.3% Move

$9.24 +1.54% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.25

InnovAge Holding Corp. (INNV) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 57/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $1.26B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

⚡ INSTANT AI QUANT PREVIEW • $0 FREE TIER Click Any Pre-Computed AI Quant Specialist Briefing on INNV Below — or Connect Your Own ChatGPT / Claude

🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief) Is INNV stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

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As of 2026-11-01, InnovAge Holding Corp. (NASDAQ: INNV) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 57/100 at a spot price of $9.24 (+1.54% 1D, market cap $1.26B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 12/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, INNV ranks #253 in composite RQD confidence.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief) How does INNV compare to USPH and OMDA in the Health Care sector?

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Within the Health Care sector (Medical/Nursing Services), INNV carries a Roarable D+ (57/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 18.0%, and ROIC of -10.2%. By comparison, USPH (U.S. Physical Therapy Inc.) holds a C grade (64/100 RQD, P/E 32.6x, ROIC 11.5%, cap $1.29B) and OMDA (Omada Health Inc.) posts a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -15.7%, cap $1.20B). Among the 5-stock peer group, USPH leads on earnings multiple (32.6x) while USPH leads on capital efficiency (11.5% ROIC).

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief) What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for INNV?

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Per INNV's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30, CIK 0001834376), InnovAge Holding Corp. generated $853.7M in revenue (+11.8% YoY), -$30.3M in net income, and $26.6M in free cash flow against $527.5M in total assets and $56.0M in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief

🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $9.25 (+0.09%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 3.1% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 57/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-0.2% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 52.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk C+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-0.4% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for INNV)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±7.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (57/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY INNV SCORES 57/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (26% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 61% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 45.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+12/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 3.1% FCF Margin ($26.6M FCF) & 18% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 13 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$9.10-2.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$8.85+7.9% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$9.55-3.2% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$9.24-0.2% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (49) → D+ (57)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the INNV Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 57/100 (D+) score, INNV faces multiple-compression risk if current valuation multiples re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($9.84) or 200D SMA ($9.06) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($9.20) toward Bear Floor ($7.18).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $INNV• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “INNV Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 28, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 57%NO 43%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 28, 2026 (~56 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±7.3% Swing Band

±$0.67 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

INNV Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 57/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: 11.8%

Model Bullish Setup (57/100)Model Risk Weight (43/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-06-30	$853.7M	-$30.3M	$26.6M	18%
FY 2024	2024-06-30	$763.9M	-$21.3M	-$44.8M	17.3%
FY 2023	2023-06-30	$688.1M	-$40.7M	$20.2M	18%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring INNV)

✓Walkthrough of INNV's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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INNV // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +13.37%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-10-30O $9.23H $9.33L $9.14C $9.24VOL 592.9K

RES: $11.80SUP: $8.83SMA50: $9.84SMA200: $9.06

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

INNV Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 INNV Butterfly Map → + Track INNV →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +11.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on INNV today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for INNV. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for INNV today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (INNV)

Health Care Rank #253 of 1016 ⚔️ USPH vs INNV Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (INNV vs. USPH, OMDA, PNTG, TDOC)

Industry: Medical/Nursing Services (29 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, InnovAge Holding Corp. (INNV) ranks #253 by composite RQD confidence (57/100, grade D+) and #331 by equity capitalization ($1.26B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, USPH leads on earnings valuation at 32.6x trailing P/E, while USPH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 11.5% ROIC and 19.2% gross margin. USPH currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 64/100 (C) compared with INNV at 57/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
INNV ACTIVE InnovAge Holding Corp.	D+	57/100	—	18.0%	-10.2%	+1.54%	$1.26B	Benchmark Subject
USPH U.S. Physical Therapy Inc.	C	64/100	32.6x	19.2%	11.5%	+1.47%	$1.29B	/usph-vs-innv →
OMDA Omada Health Inc.	D+	56/100	—	65.7%	-15.7%	+2.45%	$1.20B	/omda-vs-innv →
PNTG The Pennant Group Inc.	D+	56/100	50.2x	—	11.0%	+0.76%	$1.48B	/pntg-vs-innv →
TDOC Teladoc Health Inc.	D+	56/100	—	—	-17.0%	+26.89%	$1.59B	/tdoc-vs-innv →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-06-30 • CIK 0001834376

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30), InnovAge Holding Corp. (INNV) reported GAAP revenue of $853.7M (+11.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $763.9M , and +24.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$30.3M, operating cash flow of $32.9M, and free cash flow of $26.6M (+159.4% YoY). On the balance sheet, INNV closed FY2025 with $527.5M in total assets against $56.0M in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.47, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-06-30	$853.7M	-$30.3M	$32.9M	$26.6M	$527.5M	$56.0M
FY2024 (FY)	2024-06-30	$763.9M	-$21.3M	-$36.9M	-$44.8M	$524.8M	$59.8M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-06-30	$688.1M	-$40.7M	$20.2M	$20.2M	—	—

3. INNV Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is INNV stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

How does INNV compare to USPH and OMDA in the Health Care sector?

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for INNV?

Where is INNV trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

INNV last traded at $9.24 (+1.54% on volume of 585,553 shares), positioning the stock -6.10% below its 50-day simple moving average ($9.84) and +1.99% above its 200-day simple moving average ($9.06). Across its 52-week range of $3.94 to $12.64, INNV sits at the 60.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 45.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±7.3% ($8.57 to $9.91).

INNV Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is INNV's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, InnovAge Holding Corp. (INNV)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Dec 28, 2026.

How much is INNV stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±7.3% event move for INNV, spanning a range between $8.57 and $9.91.

Direct Sub-Reports: INNV RQD Cockpit INNV 12M Forecast INNV Earnings & Move INNV Dividends & DRIP INNV Insiders & 13F INNV Whale Options INNV Profit Sankey INNV News & Why