Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / HYFM / earnings

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Hydrofarm Holdings Group Inc. (HYFM) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±12.5% Move

$0.78 -5.45% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)

Hydrofarm Holdings Group Inc. (HYFM) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 37/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $3.8M

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INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

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RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

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Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HYFM)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Dec 30, 2026 (~58 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±12.5% Swing Band

±$0.10 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

HYFM Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 37/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: -29.4%

Model Bullish Setup (37/100)Model Risk Weight (63/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-12-31	$134.3M	-$289.8M	-$15.1M	11.3%
FY 2024	2024-12-31	$190.3M	-$66.7M	-$3.2M	16.9%
FY 2023	2023-12-31	$226.6M	-$64.8M	$7.0M	11.3%

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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HYFM)

✓Walkthrough of HYFM's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
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HYFM // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -22.77%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $0.75H $0.79L $0.70C $0.78VOL 100.7K

RES: $1.01SUP: $0.65SMA50: $0.90SMA200: $1.06

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HYFM Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HYFM Butterfly Map → + Track HYFM →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -29.4% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HYFM today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HYFM. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

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DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HYFM)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #882 of 1011 ⚔️ NHTC vs HYFM Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (HYFM vs. NHTC, EDUC, BRLT, ELA)

Industry: Consumer Specialties (11 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Hydrofarm Holdings Group Inc. (HYFM) ranks #882 by composite RQD confidence (37/100, grade D-) and #978 by equity capitalization ($3.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, EDUC leads on earnings valuation at 3.8x trailing P/E, while ELA leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 20.7% ROIC and 22.4% gross margin. ELA currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 70/100 (B-) compared with HYFM at 37/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
HYFM ACTIVE Hydrofarm Holdings Group Inc.	D-	37/100	—	11.3%	-35.0%	-5.45%	$3.8M	Benchmark Subject
NHTC Natural Health Trends Corp.	E	27/100	—	73.5%	-8.6%	-8.01%	$6.6M	/nhtc-vs-hyfm →
EDUC Educational Development Corporation	C-	61/100	3.8x	59.4%	5.1%	+0.97%	$8.9M	/educ-vs-hyfm →
BRLT Brilliant Earth Group Inc. (Class A)	D	47/100	—	57.5%	-35.0%	+2.58%	$161.9M	/brlt-vs-hyfm →
ELA Envela Corporation	B-	70/100	20.2x	22.4%	20.7%	+2.15%	$295.5M	/ela-vs-hyfm →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001695295

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Hydrofarm Holdings Group Inc. (HYFM) reported GAAP revenue of $134.3M (-29.4% vs. FY2024 revenue of $190.3M , and -40.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$289.8M, operating cash flow of -$14.1M, and free cash flow of -$15.1M (-369.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, HYFM closed FY2025 with $123.8M in total assets against $50.0K in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 1/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$134.3M	-$289.8M	-$14.1M	-$15.1M	$123.8M	$50.0K
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$190.3M	-$66.7M	-$324.0K	-$3.2M	$426.1M	$114.7M
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$226.6M	-$64.8M	$7.0M	$7.0M	—	—

3. HYFM Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HYFM stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Hydrofarm Holdings Group Inc. (NASDAQ: HYFM) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 37/100 at a spot price of $0.78 (-5.45% 1D, market cap $3.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 7/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 8/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, HYFM ranks #882 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HYFM compare to NHTC and EDUC in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Consumer Specialties), HYFM carries a Roarable D- (37/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of 11.3%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, NHTC (Natural Health Trends Corp.) holds a E grade (27/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -8.6%, cap $6.6M) and EDUC (Educational Development Corporation) posts a C- grade (61/100 RQD, P/E 3.8x, ROIC 5.1%, cap $8.9M). Among the 5-stock peer group, EDUC leads on earnings multiple (3.8x) while ELA leads on capital efficiency (20.7% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HYFM?

Per HYFM's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001695295), Hydrofarm Holdings Group Inc. generated $134.3M in revenue (-29.4% YoY), -$289.8M in net income, and -$15.1M in free cash flow against $123.8M in total assets and $50.0K in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HYFM trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HYFM last traded at $0.78 (-5.45% on volume of 215,990 shares), positioning the stock -13.33% below its 50-day simple moving average ($0.90) and -26.42% below its 200-day simple moving average ($1.06). Across its 52-week range of $0.50 to $3.20, HYFM sits at the 10.4% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 37.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $0.88).