Stock Ratings / Financials / HWBK / forecast

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Hawthorn Bancshares Inc. (HWBK) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$39.70 +1.33% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $39.72

Hawthorn Bancshares Inc. (HWBK) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $290.4M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $39.72 (+0.05%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 13/20 (C) • 0.6% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HWBK)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY HWBK SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+17/20 pts (27% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 85% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+13/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0.6% FCF Margin ($22.8M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$37.82+0.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$38.06+3.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$39.29+1% Next Q

Current

Grade C$39.70+0.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (55) → C (63)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the HWBK Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 63/100 (C) score, HWBK faces multiple-compression risk if 12.2x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.64% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($38.78) or 200D SMA ($36.59) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($40.59) toward Bear Floor ($31.66).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HWBK• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “HWBK Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 63%NO 37%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your HWBK Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $39.70: 251.9 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $31.66

$7,975

$-2,025 (-20.3%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $40.59

$10,224

+$224 (+2.2%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $47.90

$12,065

+$2,065 (+20.7%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (28 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 2

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$42	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	BUY	$45	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	HOLD	$36	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (HWBK Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

HWBK // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +18.08%▲ ASCENDING TRIANGLE

2026-10-30O $39.85H $39.85L $38.81C $39.70VOL 10.6K

RES: $41.06SUP: $35.91SMA50: $38.78SMA200: $36.59

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HWBK Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HWBK Butterfly Map → + Track HWBK →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

2.8%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HWBK today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HWBK. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HWBK today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HWBK)

Financials Rank #403 of 1096 ⚔️ OVLY vs HWBK Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (HWBK vs. OVLY, QNBC, BPRN, LCNB)

Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Hawthorn Bancshares Inc. (HWBK) ranks #403 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #815 by equity capitalization ($290.4M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, OVLY leads on earnings valuation at 9.4x trailing P/E, while OVLY leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 14.8% ROIC and — gross margin. OVLY currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with HWBK at 63/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
HWBK ACTIVE Hawthorn Bancshares Inc.	C	63/100	12.2x	—	13.7%	+1.33%	$290.4M	Benchmark Subject
OVLY Oak Valley Bancorp (CA)	C+	69/100	9.4x	—	14.8%	+0.76%	$290.1M	/ovly-vs-hwbk →
QNBC QNB Corp.	C+	66/100	20.8x	—	10.9%	-0.32%	$293.1M	/qnbc-vs-hwbk →
BPRN Princeton Bancorp Inc. (PA)	D+	57/100	15.8x	—	6.9%	-3.43%	$293.6M	/bprn-vs-hwbk →
LCNB LCNB Corporation	C	65/100	12.3x	—	8.4%	+1.48%	$284.1M	/lcnb-vs-hwbk →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000893847

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Hawthorn Bancshares Inc. (HWBK) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $23.8M, operating cash flow of $26.9M, and free cash flow of $22.8M (+1.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, HWBK closed FY2025 with $1.89B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 5/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$23.8M	$26.9M	$22.8M	$1.89B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$18.3M	$25.6M	$22.6M	$1.83B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	$956.0K	$17.6M	$17.6M	—	—

3. HWBK Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HWBK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Hawthorn Bancshares Inc. (NASDAQ: HWBK) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $39.70 (+1.33% 1D, market cap $290.4M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 13/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 17/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, HWBK ranks #403 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HWBK compare to OVLY and QNBC in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), HWBK carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.2x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 13.7%. By comparison, OVLY (Oak Valley Bancorp (CA)) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 9.4x, ROIC 14.8%, cap $290.1M) and QNBC (QNB Corp.) posts a C+ grade (66/100 RQD, P/E 20.8x, ROIC 10.9%, cap $293.1M). Among the 5-stock peer group, OVLY leads on earnings multiple (9.4x) while OVLY leads on capital efficiency (14.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HWBK?

Per HWBK's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000893847), Hawthorn Bancshares Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $23.8M in net income, and $22.8M in free cash flow against $1.89B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HWBK trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HWBK last traded at $39.70 (+1.33% on volume of 11,622 shares), positioning the stock +2.37% above its 50-day simple moving average ($38.78) and +8.50% above its 200-day simple moving average ($36.59). Across its 52-week range of $30.07 to $40.60, HWBK sits at the 91.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 52.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.2% ($38.03 to $41.37).

HWBK Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is HWBK's 12-month stock price target?

Hawthorn Bancshares Inc. (HWBK) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $40.59 (+2.2% from $39.70), with a bull-case target of $47.9 and a bear-case floor of $31.66.

Is HWBK stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates HWBK C (Hold — HOLD) with an RQD Confidence score of 63/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: HWBK RQD Cockpit HWBK 12M Forecast HWBK Earnings & Move HWBK Dividends & DRIP HWBK Insiders & 13F HWBK Whale Options HWBK Profit Sankey HWBK News & Why