CATALYSTSeekingAlpha • 2d ago
Dividend Champion, Contender, And Challenger Highlights: Week November 1Get a weekly dividend summary for Champions, Contenders, and Challengers.
Why HTH Stock advanced +1.58% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$37.26 +1.58% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $37.30
Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 40/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT
Cap $2.12B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $37.29 (+0.09%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (40/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.4% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.1% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HTH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.4%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (40/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY HTH SCORES 40/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+10/20 pts (25% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±4.4% realized swing band)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (25% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)
Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 15 pts on the table
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade E$36.38+1.3% Next Q
32
Q2 (-2Q)Grade E$36.85-1.3% Next Q
35
Q3 (-1Q)Grade E$36.36+2.5% Next Q
37
CurrentGrade D-$37.26-7.4% Hist 90D α
40
Trajectory: E (32) → D- (40)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a HTH Turnaround Squeeze
While HTH currently carries a cautious 40/100 (D-) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($37.79) and Max Pain ($39.12) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $42.43.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HTH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “HTH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why HTH Stock advanced +1.58% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH) advanced +1.58% to $37.26, trading at 64% of its 52-week range ($31.75 – $40.41). Stretched risk/reward at 13x P/E (8% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 64% of its 52-week range ($31.75 – $40.41) with RSI-14 at 49.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±4.4% around $37.26 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live HTH Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREYahoo • 6d ago
HTH Q3 deep dive: interest rate headwinds weigh on mortgage and trading, loan growth supports bankingFinancial holding company Hilltop Holdings (NYSE:HTH) missed Wall Street’s revenue expectations in Q3 2026, with sales falling 6.5% year on year to $309.5 million. Its non-GAAP profit of $0.44 per share was 31.5% below a
RISK WATCHYahoo • 6d ago
5 must-read analyst questions from Hilltop Holdings’s Q3 earnings callHilltop Holdings reported third quarter results that missed Wall Street’s revenue and non-GAAP profit expectations, reflecting several operational challenges. Management attributed the shortfall primarily to the impact o
MARKET WIREYahoo • 6d ago
Hilltop Holdings: 3 Key Takeaways for Long-Term InvestorsCommercial banking strength masks mortgage headwinds that will persist through 2027.
MARKET WIREYahoo • 8d ago
Hilltop Holdings (HTH) Stock Faces Q3 Earnings Pressure From Mortgage LossesHilltop Holdings just reported Q3 2026 earnings, and the stock is feeling it. Shares closed at US$36.36 on Friday, down 2.5% on the day and lower over the past month and quarter, as investors reacted to softer profits. T
RISK WATCHYahoo • 9d ago
Why Hilltop Holdings Stock Slumped TodayThe Texas-based financial services conglomerate unveiled its third-quarter results.
CATALYSTYahoo • 9d ago
Hilltop Holdings (HTH) Q3 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptMortgage headwinds offset by bank deposit and net interest income growth.
CATALYSTYahoo • 9d ago
Hilltop Q3 Earnings Call HighlightsHilltop (NYSE:HTH) reported third-quarter 2026 net income attributable to common stockholders of $24.9 million, or $0.44 per diluted share, as growth in its banking operations was partly offset by interest-rate-driven pr
MARKET WIREYahoo • 9d ago
Hilltop Holdings Inc. Q3 2026 Earnings Call SummaryMoby summary of Hilltop Holdings Inc.'s Q3 2026 earnings call
MARKET WIREBenzinga • 9d ago
Hilltop Hldgs Q3 2026 Earnings Call TranscriptHilltop Hldgs (NYSE:HTH) reported third-quarter financial results on Friday. The transcript from the company’s third-quarter earnings call has been provided below.This transcript is brought to you by Benzinga APIs. For
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HTH)
- ✓Walkthrough of HTH's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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HTH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -1.09%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $37.48H $37.50L $36.94C $37.26VOL 270.3K
RES: $41.40SUP: $35.31SMA50: $37.79SMA200: $37.72
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
HTH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
3.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HTH today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HTH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HTH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HTH)
Financials Rank #980 of 1096
⚔️ SRCE vs HTH Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (HTH vs. SRCE, OFG, TBBK, WAFD)
Industry: Major Banks (248 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH) ranks #980 by composite RQD confidence (40/100, grade D-) and #420 by equity capitalization ($2.12B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, TBBK leads on earnings valuation at 9.0x trailing P/E, while TBBK leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 33.1% ROIC and — gross margin. TBBK currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 75/100 (B) compared with HTH at 40/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HTH
ACTIVE
Hilltop Holdings Inc. | D- | 40/100 | 12.7x | — | 7.7% | +1.58% | $2.12B | Benchmark Subject |
| SRCE 1st Source Corporation | D+ | 56/100 | — | — | — | +0.97% | $2.13B | /srce-vs-hth → |
| OFG OFG Bancorp | C | 63/100 | 10.5x | — | 14.8% | +0.26% | $2.15B | /ofg-vs-hth → |
| TBBK The Bancorp Inc | B | 75/100 | 9.0x | — | 33.1% | +0.20% | $2.06B | /tbbk-vs-hth → |
| WAFD WaFd Inc. | B- | 70/100 | 9.7x | — | 7.5% | +1.16% | $2.19B | /wafd-vs-hth → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001265131In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $166.0M, operating cash flow of -$38.7M, and free cash flow of -$38.7M (-114.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, HTH closed FY2025 with $15.84B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | $166.0M | -$38.7M | -$38.7M | $15.84B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | $113.0M | $273.9M | $273.9M | $16.27B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $0 | $110.0M | $443.0M | $443.0M | — | — |
3. HTH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs HTH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Hilltop Holdings Inc. (NYSE: HTH) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 40/100 at a spot price of $37.26 (+1.58% 1D, market cap $2.12B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 10/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 8/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, HTH ranks #980 in composite RQD confidence.
How does HTH compare to SRCE and OFG in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Major Banks), HTH carries a Roarable D- (40/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 12.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 7.7%. By comparison, SRCE (1st Source Corporation) holds a D+ grade (56/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.13B) and OFG (OFG Bancorp) posts a C grade (63/100 RQD, P/E 10.5x, ROIC 14.8%, cap $2.15B). Among the 5-stock peer group, TBBK leads on earnings multiple (9.0x) while TBBK leads on capital efficiency (33.1% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HTH?
Per HTH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001265131), Hilltop Holdings Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $166.0M in net income, and -$38.7M in free cash flow against $15.84B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is HTH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
HTH last traded at $37.26 (+1.58% on volume of 372,895 shares), positioning the stock -1.40% below its 50-day simple moving average ($37.79) and -1.22% below its 200-day simple moving average ($37.72). Across its 52-week range of $31.75 to $40.41, HTH sits at the 63.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.7 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.4% ($35.62 to $38.90).
HTH Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is HTH stock moving today?
Why HTH Stock advanced +1.58% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 13x P/E (8% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.