Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / HOV / earnings

LEGH (69) SDHC (44) DFH (51) LGIH (44) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (Class A) (HOV) Next Earnings Date & Expected ±10.7% Move

$102.45 +0.90% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $102.42

Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (Class A) (HOV) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 51/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 51/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $610.6M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $102.42 (-0.03%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 16/20 (B+) • 5.6% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 51/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.7% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

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Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D+ · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.2% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HOV)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.7%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (51/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY HOV SCORES 51/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+16/20 pts (31% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 5.6% FCF Margin ($166.2M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+10/20 pts (20% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 2/9

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution7/20 pts (-13 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 13 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$105.80-8.1% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$97.27+4.1% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$101.27+1.2% Next Q

Current

Grade D$102.45-1.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (59) → D (51)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a HOV Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While HOV currently carries a cautious 51/100 (D) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (7/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($112.14) and Max Pain ($107.57) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $155.90.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.16% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HOV• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “HOV Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Jan 29, 2027) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 51%NO 49%Trade / Inspect Odds →

NEXT EST. WINDOW: Jan 29, 2027 (~88 DAYS)

Historical OHLCV Volatility ±10.7% Swing Band

±$10.96 Expected Swing

MODEL EARNINGS SETUP GAUGE

HOV Quantitative Pre-Earnings Setup: 51/100

Trailing EPS: $4.25 • YoY Revenue Growth: -0.9%

Model Bullish Setup (51/100)Model Risk Weight (49/100)

Derived deterministically from RQD cash-flow quality, SEC accrual safety, and institutional flow (not a community poll).

LOG YOUR PERSONAL PRE-EARNINGS STANCE (SAVED LOCALLY IN BROWSER):

Recent SEC Reported Revenue, Net Profit & Diluted EPS Cadence

Period	Filed	Revenue	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	Gross Margin
FY 2025	2025-10-31	$2.98B	$0	$166.2M	52%
FY 2024	2024-10-31	$3.00B	$0	$5.8M	52%
FY 2023	2023-10-31	$2.76B	$0	$435.3M	52%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HOV)

✓Walkthrough of HOV's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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HOV // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -8.88%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $102.5H $105.2L $98.50C $102.5VOL 109.5K

RES: $124.4SUP: $86.61SMA50: $112.1SMA200: $117.6

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HOV Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HOV Butterfly Map → + Track HOV →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -0.9% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HOV today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HOV. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HOV today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HOV)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #623 of 1011 ⚔️ LEGH vs HOV Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (HOV vs. LEGH, SDHC, DFH, LGIH)

Industry: Homebuilding (31 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (Class A) (HOV) ranks #623 by composite RQD confidence (51/100, grade D) and #570 by equity capitalization ($610.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, DFH leads on earnings valuation at 4.2x trailing P/E, while DFH leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 15.3% ROIC and — gross margin. LEGH currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 69/100 (C+) compared with HOV at 51/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
HOV ACTIVE Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (Class A)	D	51/100	—	—	—	+0.90%	$610.6M	Benchmark Subject
LEGH Legacy Housing Corporation (TX)	C+	69/100	16.5x	—	7.4%	+1.87%	$688.0M	/legh-vs-hov →
SDHC Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (Class A)	D	44/100	50.0x	21.8%	12.3%	+1.94%	$534.7M	/sdhc-vs-hov →
DFH Dream Finders Homes Inc. (Class A)	D	51/100	4.2x	—	15.3%	+3.29%	$909.0M	/dfh-vs-hov →
LGIH LGI Homes Inc.	D	44/100	14.0x	20.7%	3.0%	+5.12%	$1.02B	/lgih-vs-hov →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-10-31 • CIK 0000357294

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-10-31), Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (Class A) (HOV) reported GAAP revenue of $2.98B (-0.9% vs. FY2024 revenue of $3.00B , and +8.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $188.3M, and free cash flow of $166.2M (+2774.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, HOV closed FY2025 with $2.73B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-10-31	$2.98B	$0	$188.3M	$166.2M	$2.73B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-10-31	$3.00B	$0	$23.6M	$5.8M	$2.53B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-10-31	$2.76B	$0	$435.3M	$435.3M	—	—

3. HOV Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HOV stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (Class A) (NYSE: HOV) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 51/100 at a spot price of $102.45 (+0.90% 1D, market cap $610.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 16/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, HOV ranks #623 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HOV compare to LEGH and SDHC in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Homebuilding), HOV carries a Roarable D (51/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, LEGH (Legacy Housing Corporation (TX)) holds a C+ grade (69/100 RQD, P/E 16.5x, ROIC 7.4%, cap $688.0M) and SDHC (Smith Douglas Homes Corp. (Class A)) posts a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E 50.0x, ROIC 12.3%, cap $534.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, DFH leads on earnings multiple (4.2x) while DFH leads on capital efficiency (15.3% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HOV?

Per HOV's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-10-31, CIK 0000357294), Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (Class A) generated $2.98B in revenue (-0.9% YoY), $0 in net income, and $166.2M in free cash flow against $2.73B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HOV trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HOV last traded at $102.45 (+0.90% on volume of 108,803 shares), positioning the stock -8.64% below its 50-day simple moving average ($112.14) and -12.89% below its 200-day simple moving average ($117.61). Across its 52-week range of $90.17 to $148.48, HOV sits at the 21.1% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 43.4 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.7% ($91.49 to $113.41).

HOV Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

When is HOV's next earnings date?

Based on SEC filing cadence, Hovnanian Enterprises Inc. (Class A) (HOV)'s next quarterly reporting window is estimated around Jan 29, 2027.

How much is HOV stock expected to move on earnings?

Volatility modeling currently projects a ±10.7% event move for HOV, spanning a range between $91.49 and $113.41.

Direct Sub-Reports: HOV RQD Cockpit HOV 12M Forecast HOV Earnings & Move HOV Dividends & DRIP HOV Insiders & 13F HOV Whale Options HOV Profit Sankey HOV News & Why