MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why HMH Stock slipped -1.53% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$18.67 -1.53% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $18.58
HMH Holding Inc. (Class A) (HMH) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 47/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID
Cap $823.2M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $18.58 (-0.47%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 0.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (47/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.9% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HMH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.2%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (47/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY HMH SCORES 47/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (28% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+10/20 pts (21% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0.6% FCF Margin ($23.1M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C$19.07-9.4% Next Q
55
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C-$17.27+5.3% Next Q
52
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C-$18.18+2.7% Next Q
50
CurrentGrade D$18.67-5.9% Hist 90D α
47
Trajectory: C (55) → D (47)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a HMH Turnaround Squeeze
While HMH currently carries a cautious 47/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($18.85) and Max Pain ($19.60) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $25.73.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HMH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “HMH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why HMH Stock slipped -1.53% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
HMH Holding Inc. (Class A) (HMH) slipped -1.53% to $18.67, trading at 29% of its 52-week range ($16.32 – $24.5). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (steady margins) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 29% of its 52-week range ($16.32 – $24.5) with RSI-14 at 54 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±10.2% around $18.67 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $23.1M annual free cash flow.
Live HMH Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HMH)
- ✓Walkthrough of HMH's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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HMH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -11.93%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL
2026-10-30O $18.56H $19.02L $18.51C $18.67VOL 60.0K
RES: $20.06SUP: $16.46SMA50: $18.85SMA200: $19.78
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
HMH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HMH today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HMH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HMH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HMH)
Consumer Discretionary Rank #704 of 1011
⚔️ FET vs HMH Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (HMH vs. FET, OIS, FLOC, INVX)
Industry: Oil and Gas Field Machinery (17 Tracked Issuers)Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, HMH Holding Inc. (Class A) (HMH) ranks #704 by composite RQD confidence (47/100, grade D) and #533 by equity capitalization ($823.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, INVX leads on earnings valuation at 25.2x trailing P/E, while FLOC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 30.0% ROIC and — gross margin. INVX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 76/100 (B+) compared with HMH at 47/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HMH
ACTIVE
HMH Holding Inc. (Class A) | D | 47/100 | — | — | — | -1.53% | $823.2M | Benchmark Subject |
| FET Forum Energy Technologies Inc. | D | 46/100 | — | 27.7% | 6.1% | -2.37% | $1.02B | /fet-vs-hmh → |
| OIS Oil States International Inc. | D+ | 52/100 | — | 19.9% | -15.4% | -1.20% | $547.7M | /ois-vs-hmh → |
| FLOC Flowco Holdings Inc. (Class A) | B | 73/100 | 43.8x | — | 30.0% | -1.47% | $1.81B | /floc-vs-hmh → |
| INVX Innovex International Inc. | B+ | 76/100 | 25.2x | 31.0% | 9.9% | -1.22% | $2.10B | /invx-vs-hmh → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2025–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002021880In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), HMH Holding Inc. (Class A) (HMH) reported GAAP revenue of $0 , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $0, and free cash flow of $0 . On the balance sheet, HMH closed FY2025 with $1.36B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: N/A).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | $0 | — | — | $1.36B | — |
3. HMH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs HMH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, HMH Holding Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: HMH) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 47/100 at a spot price of $18.67 (-1.53% 1D, market cap $823.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, HMH ranks #704 in composite RQD confidence.
How does HMH compare to FET and OIS in the Consumer Discretionary sector?
Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Oil and Gas Field Machinery), HMH carries a Roarable D (47/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, FET (Forum Energy Technologies Inc.) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 6.1%, cap $1.02B) and OIS (Oil States International Inc.) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -15.4%, cap $547.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, INVX leads on earnings multiple (25.2x) while FLOC leads on capital efficiency (30.0% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HMH?
Per HMH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002021880), HMH Holding Inc. (Class A) generated $0 in revenue, $0 in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $1.36B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is HMH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
HMH last traded at $18.67 (-1.53% on volume of 61,747 shares), positioning the stock -0.95% below its 50-day simple moving average ($18.85) and -5.61% below its 200-day simple moving average ($19.78). Across its 52-week range of $16.32 to $24.50, HMH sits at the 28.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 54.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.2% ($16.77 to $20.57).
HMH Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is HMH stock moving today?
Why HMH Stock slipped -1.53% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (steady margins) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.