Stock Ratings / Consumer Discretionary / HMH / forecast

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HMH Holding Inc. (Class A) (HMH) 12-Month Stock Forecast & Price Target Cone

$18.67 -1.53% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $18.58

HMH Holding Inc. (Class A) (HMH) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 47/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (47/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $823.2M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $18.58 (-0.47%)🧬 Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 10/20 (D) • 0.6% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (47/100 · D) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-5.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D- · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-4.9% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HMH)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±10.2%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (47/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY HMH SCORES 47/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (28% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 7/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+10/20 pts (21% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0.6% FCF Margin ($23.1M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-15 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$19.07-9.4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C-$17.27+5.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C-$18.18+2.7% Next Q

Current

Grade D$18.67-5.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (55) → D (47)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a HMH Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While HMH currently carries a cautious 47/100 (D) rating due to Whale & Options Positioning (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($18.85) and Max Pain ($19.60) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $25.73.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (-0.40% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HMH• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “HMH Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 47%NO 53%Trade / Inspect Odds →

INTERACTIVE 12-MONTH POSITION SIMULATOR

Drag to Test Your HMH Position Size: $10,000

Shares at $18.67: 535.6 sh

$1,000$10,000$25,000$50,000$100,000

12M Bear Case FloorTarget $13.85

$7,418

$-2,582 (-25.8%)

12M Consensus BaseTarget $17.75

$9,507

$-493 (-4.9%)

12M Bull Case BreakoutTarget $25.73

$13,781

+$3,781 (+37.8%)

Wall Street Analyst Breakdown & Historical Accuracy Audit (35 Desks)

Street Historical Accuracy: 64/100

● Strong Buy / Buy: 17● Hold: 9● Sell: 9

Wall Street Firm	Stance	12M Target	1Y Accuracy	Track Grade
Morgan StanleyInstitutional Equity Desk	HOLD	$18	74%	A
Goldman SachsSector Coverage Lead	UNDERPERFORM	$24	69%	B
JP MorganUS Large-Cap Research	SELL	$16	58%	C

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring HMH)

✓Walkthrough of HMH's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

HMH // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -11.93%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $18.56H $19.02L $18.51C $18.67VOL 60.0K

RES: $20.06SUP: $16.46SMA50: $18.85SMA200: $19.78

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HMH Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HMH Butterfly Map → + Track HMH →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HMH today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HMH. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HMH today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HMH)

Consumer Discretionary Rank #704 of 1011 ⚔️ FET vs HMH Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Discretionary Peer Comparison (HMH vs. FET, OIS, FLOC, INVX)

Industry: Oil and Gas Field Machinery (17 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary securities in the Roarable RQD universe, HMH Holding Inc. (Class A) (HMH) ranks #704 by composite RQD confidence (47/100, grade D) and #533 by equity capitalization ($823.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, INVX leads on earnings valuation at 25.2x trailing P/E, while FLOC leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 30.0% ROIC and — gross margin. INVX currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 76/100 (B+) compared with HMH at 47/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
HMH ACTIVE HMH Holding Inc. (Class A)	D	47/100	—	—	—	-1.53%	$823.2M	Benchmark Subject
FET Forum Energy Technologies Inc.	D	46/100	—	27.7%	6.1%	-2.37%	$1.02B	/fet-vs-hmh →
OIS Oil States International Inc.	D+	52/100	—	19.9%	-15.4%	-1.20%	$547.7M	/ois-vs-hmh →
FLOC Flowco Holdings Inc. (Class A)	B	73/100	43.8x	—	30.0%	-1.47%	$1.81B	/floc-vs-hmh →
INVX Innovex International Inc.	B+	76/100	25.2x	31.0%	9.9%	-1.22%	$2.10B	/invx-vs-hmh →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2025–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0002021880

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), HMH Holding Inc. (Class A) (HMH) reported GAAP revenue of $0 , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of $0, and free cash flow of $0 . On the balance sheet, HMH closed FY2025 with $1.36B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: N/A).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$0	—	—	$1.36B	—

3. HMH Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HMH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, HMH Holding Inc. (Class A) (NASDAQ: HMH) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 47/100 at a spot price of $18.67 (-1.53% 1D, market cap $823.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 5/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 10/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 9/20. Across 1011 tracked Consumer Discretionary issuers, HMH ranks #704 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HMH compare to FET and OIS in the Consumer Discretionary sector?

Within the Consumer Discretionary sector (Oil and Gas Field Machinery), HMH carries a Roarable D (47/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of —. By comparison, FET (Forum Energy Technologies Inc.) holds a D grade (46/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 6.1%, cap $1.02B) and OIS (Oil States International Inc.) posts a D+ grade (52/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -15.4%, cap $547.7M). Among the 5-stock peer group, INVX leads on earnings multiple (25.2x) while FLOC leads on capital efficiency (30.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HMH?

Per HMH's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0002021880), HMH Holding Inc. (Class A) generated $0 in revenue, $0 in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $1.36B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Consumer Discretionary with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HMH trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HMH last traded at $18.67 (-1.53% on volume of 61,747 shares), positioning the stock -0.95% below its 50-day simple moving average ($18.85) and -5.61% below its 200-day simple moving average ($19.78). Across its 52-week range of $16.32 to $24.50, HMH sits at the 28.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 54.0 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±10.2% ($16.77 to $20.57).

HMH Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is HMH's 12-month stock price target?

HMH Holding Inc. (Class A) (HMH) carries a 12-month consensus base price target of $17.75 (-4.9% from $18.67), with a bull-case target of $25.73 and a bear-case floor of $13.85.

Is HMH stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now?

Roarable's 5-Pillar RQD Quant Engine rates HMH D (Sell — SELL) with an RQD Confidence score of 47/100.

Direct Sub-Reports: HMH RQD Cockpit HMH 12M Forecast HMH Earnings & Move HMH Dividends & DRIP HMH Insiders & 13F HMH Whale Options HMH Profit Sankey HMH News & Why