Stock Ratings / Financials / HCI / insiders

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HCI Group Inc. (HCI) Insider, 13F Hedge Fund & Politician Buy/Sell Thermometer

$198.23 +1.53% NYSE • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $199.25

HCI Group Inc. (HCI) earns a Roarable Rating of B+ (Buy) with 76/100 RQD Confidence. High-quality cash engine (steady margins, 31% return on capital) with steady institutional support. The company’s underlying cash engine and institutional positioning keep the composite score in the Green Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 76/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 11% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 70.0% hit rate) →

ROARABLE B+ • BUY Cap $2.47B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $199.26 (+0.52%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 18/20 (A) • 48.9% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 76/100 (B+) historically ranked in the Top 11% of excess returns over the next 90 days (+7.6% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 70.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERBUY • B+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bullish

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw B+ · Rk B

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+8.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for HCI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±5.3%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (76/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY HCI SCORES 76/100 (B+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+18/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 48.9% FCF Margin ($440.8M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+18/20 pts (24% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 86% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning11/20 pts (-9 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-9 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade B-$191.69+3.6% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade B$198.55+2.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade B$204.06-2.9% Next Q

Current

Grade B+$198.23+7.6% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: B- (68) → B+ (76)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the HCI Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 76/100 (B+) score, HCI faces multiple-compression risk if 7.7x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.92% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($189.16) or 200D SMA ($170.64) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($214.29) toward Bear Floor ($162.55).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $HCI• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “HCI Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 76%NO 24%Trade / Inspect Odds →

SEC FORM 4 × 13F HEDGE FUNDS × CONGRESSIONAL STOCK ACT

HCI Smart-Money Thermometer: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION

Explore All 13F & Congress Whales →

▲ Disclosed Buys: 0 ($0)▼ Disclosed Sales: 0 ($0)

Wide-Open SEC Form 4, 13F & Congressional Disclosure Ledger (HCI)

No recent open-market Form 4 cluster sales or emergency dumps flagged on HCI. Visit the Global 13F & Congressional Whale Ledger for cross-market smart-money filings.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk

Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (HCI Tape Review)

✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

HCI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +29.08%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $199.6H $199.7L $196.9C $198.2VOL 116.8K

RES: $211.4SUP: $173.7SMA50: $189.2SMA200: $170.6

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

HCI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 HCI Butterfly Map → + Track HCI →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-6.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +20.1% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on HCI today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for HCI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for HCI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (HCI)

Financials Rank #31 of 1096 ⚔️ SKWD vs HCI Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (HCI vs. SKWD, PLGO, HG, SPNT)

Industry: Property-Casualty Insurers (68 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, HCI Group Inc. (HCI) ranks #31 by composite RQD confidence (76/100, grade B+) and #398 by equity capitalization ($2.47B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SPNT leads on earnings valuation at 6.6x trailing P/E, while HCI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 30.8% ROIC and — gross margin. HCI currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 76/100 (B+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
HCI ACTIVE HCI Group Inc.	B+	76/100	7.7x	—	30.8%	+1.53%	$2.47B	Benchmark Subject
SKWD Skyward Specialty Insurance Group Inc.	C+	68/100	15.3x	—	16.8%	+0.95%	$2.60B	/skwd-vs-hci →
PLGO Pelagos Insurance Capital Limited	D	44/100	—	—	—	+1.91%	$2.26B	/plgo-vs-hci →
HG Hamilton Insurance Group Ltd. (Class B)	D+	55/100	—	—	—	-0.72%	$2.86B	/hg-vs-hci →
SPNT SiriusPoint Ltd.	C	64/100	6.6x	—	18.6%	+2.69%	$3.01B	/spnt-vs-hci →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001400810

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), HCI Group Inc. (HCI) reported GAAP revenue of $900.9M (+20.1% vs. FY2024 revenue of $750.1M , and +63.6% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $320.4M, operating cash flow of $444.4M, and free cash flow of $440.8M (+34.5% YoY). On the balance sheet, HCI closed FY2025 with $2.53B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 6/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$900.9M	$320.4M	$444.4M	$440.8M	$2.53B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$750.1M	$127.6M	$331.8M	$327.8M	$2.23B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$550.7M	$89.3M	$230.7M	$230.7M	—	—

3. HCI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is HCI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, HCI Group Inc. (NYSE: HCI) is rated B+ (Buy / BUY) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 76/100 at a spot price of $198.23 (+1.53% 1D, market cap $2.47B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 18/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 11/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 16/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 18/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, HCI ranks #31 in composite RQD confidence.

How does HCI compare to SKWD and PLGO in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Property-Casualty Insurers), HCI carries a Roarable B+ (76/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 7.7x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 30.8%. By comparison, SKWD (Skyward Specialty Insurance Group Inc.) holds a C+ grade (68/100 RQD, P/E 15.3x, ROIC 16.8%, cap $2.60B) and PLGO (Pelagos Insurance Capital Limited) posts a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $2.26B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SPNT leads on earnings multiple (6.6x) while HCI leads on capital efficiency (30.8% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for HCI?

Per HCI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001400810), HCI Group Inc. generated $900.9M in revenue (+20.1% YoY), $320.4M in net income, and $440.8M in free cash flow against $2.53B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Strong cash generator (steady margins)—profits are backed by real money, not accounting tricks.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is HCI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

HCI last traded at $198.23 (+1.53% on volume of 145,861 shares), positioning the stock +4.79% above its 50-day simple moving average ($189.16) and +16.17% above its 200-day simple moving average ($170.64). Across its 52-week range of $144.75 to $208.80, HCI sits at the 83.5% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 55.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±5.3% ($187.72 to $208.74).

HCI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Are HCI insiders and hedge funds buying or selling?

Roarable's SEC Form 4 and 13F Whale Thermometer currently classifies HCI leadership and institutional positioning as: HEAVY INSIDER & 13F ACCUMULATION.

Direct Sub-Reports: HCI RQD Cockpit HCI 12M Forecast HCI Earnings & Move HCI Dividends & DRIP HCI Insiders & 13F HCI Whale Options HCI Profit Sankey HCI News & Why