MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why GUTS Stock surged +11.40% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$0.99 +11.40% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.01
Fractyl Health Inc. (GUTS) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 52/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID
Cap $13.2M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.01 (+1.86%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk C
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GUTS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (52/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY GUTS SCORES 52/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (29% of score)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 2% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 17 (OVERSOLD (<32))
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (27% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)
Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C$4.42-64.9% Next Q
60
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C$1.55-30.3% Next Q
57
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C$1.08-8.3% Next Q
55
CurrentGrade D+$0.99-1.1% Hist 90D α
52
Trajectory: C (60) → D+ (52)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a GUTS Turnaround Squeeze
While GUTS currently carries a cautious 52/100 (D+) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($5.46) and Max Pain ($1.04) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $30.81.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GUTS• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “GUTS Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why GUTS Stock surged +11.40% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Fractyl Health Inc. (GUTS) surged +11.40% to $0.99, trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($0.82 – $29.34). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 2% of its 52-week range ($0.82 – $29.34) with RSI-14 at 17 (OVERSOLD (<32)).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $0.99 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D+ (Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live GUTS Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring GUTS)
- ✓Walkthrough of GUTS's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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GUTS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -87.08%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT
2026-10-30O $0.96H $0.99L $0.90C $0.99VOL 386.7K
RES: $5.64SUP: $0.68SMA50: $5.46SMA200: $7.88
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
GUTS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GUTS today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GUTS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GUTS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GUTS)
Health Care Rank #328 of 1016
⚔️ CNSY vs GUTS Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (GUTS vs. CNSY, SINT, CTSO, ICU)
Industry: Medical/Dental Instruments (120 Tracked Issuers)Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Fractyl Health Inc. (GUTS) ranks #328 by composite RQD confidence (52/100, grade D+) and #869 by equity capitalization ($13.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GUTS leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while GUTS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and — gross margin. GUTS currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 52/100 (D+).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GUTS
ACTIVE
Fractyl Health Inc. | D+ | 52/100 | — | — | -35.0% | +11.40% | $13.2M | Benchmark Subject |
| CNSY Cerenome Inc. | D- | 36/100 | — | — | -35.0% | 0.00% | $13.2M | /cnsy-vs-guts → |
| SINT SiNtx Technologies Inc. | D- | 37/100 | — | 45.3% | -35.0% | -1.15% | $13.0M | /sint-vs-guts → |
| CTSO Cytosorbents Corporation | E | 21/100 | — | 71.5% | -35.0% | -16.03% | $13.9M | /ctso-vs-guts → |
| ICU SeaStar Medical Holding Corporation | E | 33/100 | — | 95.7% | -35.0% | -6.85% | $12.2M | /icu-vs-guts → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001572616In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Fractyl Health Inc. (GUTS) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (-100.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $93.0K ) , GAAP net income of -$141.0M, operating cash flow of -$90.3M, and free cash flow of -$90.9M (-35.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, GUTS closed FY2025 with $121.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | -$141.0M | -$90.3M | -$90.9M | $121.4M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $93.0K | -$68.7M | -$65.5M | -$67.3M | $108.1M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $0 | -$77.1M | -$42.8M | -$42.8M | — | — |
3. GUTS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs GUTS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Fractyl Health Inc. (NASDAQ: GUTS) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $0.99 (+11.40% 1D, market cap $13.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, GUTS ranks #328 in composite RQD confidence.
How does GUTS compare to CNSY and SINT in the Health Care sector?
Within the Health Care sector (Medical/Dental Instruments), GUTS carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, CNSY (Cerenome Inc.) holds a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $13.2M) and SINT (SiNtx Technologies Inc.) posts a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $13.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, GUTS leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while GUTS leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GUTS?
Per GUTS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001572616), Fractyl Health Inc. generated $0 in revenue (-100.0% YoY), -$141.0M in net income, and -$90.9M in free cash flow against $121.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is GUTS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
GUTS last traded at $0.99 (+11.40% on volume of 710,874 shares), positioning the stock -81.87% below its 50-day simple moving average ($5.46) and -87.44% below its 200-day simple moving average ($7.88). Across its 52-week range of $0.82 to $29.34, GUTS sits at the 0.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 17.0 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $1.11).
GUTS Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is GUTS stock moving today?
Why GUTS Stock surged +11.40% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.