Stock Ratings / Health Care / GUTS / financials

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Fractyl Health Inc. (GUTS) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

Q: Is GUTS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Fractyl Health Inc. (NASDAQ: GUTS) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $0.99 (+11.40% 1D, market cap $13.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, GUTS ranks #328 in composite RQD confidence.

Q: How does GUTS compare to CNSY and SINT in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Medical/Dental Instruments), GUTS carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, CNSY (Cerenome Inc.) holds a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $13.2M) and SINT (SiNtx Technologies Inc.) posts a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $13.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, GUTS leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while GUTS leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

Q: What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GUTS?

Per GUTS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001572616), Fractyl Health Inc. generated $0 in revenue (-100.0% YoY), -$141.0M in net income, and -$90.9M in free cash flow against $121.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Q: Where is GUTS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

GUTS last traded at $0.99 (+11.40% on volume of 710,874 shares), positioning the stock -81.87% below its 50-day simple moving average ($5.46) and -87.44% below its 200-day simple moving average ($7.88). Across its 52-week range of $0.82 to $29.34, GUTS sits at the 0.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 17.0 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $1.11).

Q: How profitable is Fractyl Health Inc. (GUTS)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), GUTS converted $4.0B of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $0 in free cash flow (0% FCF margin).

$0.99 +11.40% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.01

Fractyl Health Inc. (GUTS) carries a Roarable Rating of D+ (Sell) with 52/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D+ • SELL / AVOID Cap $13.2M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $1.01 (+1.86%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 8/20 (D-) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 52/100 (D+) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 50.1% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D+

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GUTS)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (52/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY GUTS SCORES 52/100 (D+) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+15/20 pts (29% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 2% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 17 (OVERSOLD (<32))

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+14/20 pts (27% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±12.5% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 15 pts from alignment

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$4.42-64.9% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$1.55-30.3% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$1.08-8.3% Next Q

Current

Grade D+$0.99-1.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (60) → D+ (52)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a GUTS Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While GUTS currently carries a cautious 52/100 (D+) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($5.46) and Max Pain ($1.04) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $30.81.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.72% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GUTS• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “GUTS Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 52%NO 48%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How GUTS Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $4.00B

FY24

Rev $93.0K

FY25

Rev $4.00B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$4.00B	52%	-2.4%	-$141.0M	-$90.9M	-45%
FY 2024	$93.0K	46.2%	-80%	-$68.7M	-$67.3M	-45%
FY 2023	$4.00B	52%	-1.3%	-$77.1M	-$42.8M	-35%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring GUTS)

✓Walkthrough of GUTS's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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GUTS // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -87.08%🛡️ HOLDING TREND SUPPORT

2026-10-30O $0.96H $0.99L $0.90C $0.99VOL 386.7K

RES: $5.64SUP: $0.68SMA50: $5.46SMA200: $7.88

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

GUTS Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 GUTS Butterfly Map → + Track GUTS →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

8.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GUTS today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GUTS. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GUTS today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GUTS)

Health Care Rank #328 of 1016 ⚔️ CNSY vs GUTS Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Health Care Peer Comparison (GUTS vs. CNSY, SINT, CTSO, ICU)

Industry: Medical/Dental Instruments (120 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1016 tracked Health Care securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Fractyl Health Inc. (GUTS) ranks #328 by composite RQD confidence (52/100, grade D+) and #869 by equity capitalization ($13.2M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GUTS leads on earnings valuation at N/A trailing P/E, while GUTS leads on capital efficiency and profitability with -35.0% ROIC and — gross margin. GUTS currently leads its immediate peer cohort in composite quantitative strength at 52/100 (D+).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
GUTS ACTIVE Fractyl Health Inc.	D+	52/100	—	—	-35.0%	+11.40%	$13.2M	Benchmark Subject
CNSY Cerenome Inc.	D-	36/100	—	—	-35.0%	0.00%	$13.2M	/cnsy-vs-guts →
SINT SiNtx Technologies Inc.	D-	37/100	—	45.3%	-35.0%	-1.15%	$13.0M	/sint-vs-guts →
CTSO Cytosorbents Corporation	E	21/100	—	71.5%	-35.0%	-16.03%	$13.9M	/ctso-vs-guts →
ICU SeaStar Medical Holding Corporation	E	33/100	—	95.7%	-35.0%	-6.85%	$12.2M	/icu-vs-guts →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001572616

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Fractyl Health Inc. (GUTS) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (-100.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $93.0K ) , GAAP net income of -$141.0M, operating cash flow of -$90.3M, and free cash flow of -$90.9M (-35.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, GUTS closed FY2025 with $121.4M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	-$141.0M	-$90.3M	-$90.9M	$121.4M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$93.0K	-$68.7M	-$65.5M	-$67.3M	$108.1M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$0	-$77.1M	-$42.8M	-$42.8M	—	—

3. GUTS Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is GUTS stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Fractyl Health Inc. (NASDAQ: GUTS) is rated D+ (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 52/100 at a spot price of $0.99 (+11.40% 1D, market cap $13.2M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 8/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 14/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 15/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 1016 tracked Health Care issuers, GUTS ranks #328 in composite RQD confidence.

How does GUTS compare to CNSY and SINT in the Health Care sector?

Within the Health Care sector (Medical/Dental Instruments), GUTS carries a Roarable D+ (52/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, CNSY (Cerenome Inc.) holds a D- grade (36/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $13.2M) and SINT (SiNtx Technologies Inc.) posts a D- grade (37/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $13.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, GUTS leads on earnings multiple (N/A) while GUTS leads on capital efficiency (-35.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GUTS?

Per GUTS's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001572616), Fractyl Health Inc. generated $0 in revenue (-100.0% YoY), -$141.0M in net income, and -$90.9M in free cash flow against $121.4M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Health Care with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is GUTS trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

GUTS last traded at $0.99 (+11.40% on volume of 710,874 shares), positioning the stock -81.87% below its 50-day simple moving average ($5.46) and -87.44% below its 200-day simple moving average ($7.88). Across its 52-week range of $0.82 to $29.34, GUTS sits at the 0.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 17.0 (OVERSOLD (<32)) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($1.00 to $1.11).

GUTS Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Fractyl Health Inc. (GUTS)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), GUTS converted $4.0B of revenue into a 52% gross margin, 0% operating margin, and $0 in free cash flow (0% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: GUTS RQD Cockpit GUTS 12M Forecast GUTS Earnings & Move GUTS Dividends & DRIP GUTS Insiders & 13F GUTS Whale Options GUTS Profit Sankey GUTS News & Why