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Why GEG Stock advanced +0.47% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$2.16 +0.47% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.16
Great Elm Group Inc. (GEG) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 38/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT
Cap $66.8M
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🤖 Mara Quenwick • AI Quant Lead (Click for Instant Brief)
Is GEG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
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As of 2026-11-01, Great Elm Group Inc. (NASDAQ: GEG) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 38/100 at a spot price of $2.16 (+0.47% 1D, market cap $66.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, GEG ranks #575 in composite RQD confidence.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Ellis Vennor • AI Peer & Flow Quant (Click for Instant Brief)
How does GEG compare to MCHX and SPAI in the Technology sector?
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Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), GEG carries a Roarable D- (38/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 5.2x, gross margin of 93.4%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, MCHX (Marchex Inc. (Class B)) holds a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -22.4%, cap $66.1M) and SPAI (Safe Pro Group Inc.) posts a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $69.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, GEG leads on earnings multiple (5.2x) while FATN leads on capital efficiency (13.4% ROIC).
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 Gideon Ashmere • AI SEC 10-K Forensics (Click for Instant Brief)
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GEG?
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Per GEG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30, CIK 0001831096), Great Elm Group Inc. generated $16.3M in revenue (-8.5% YoY), $12.9M in net income, and -$9.0M in free cash flow against $135.5M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
✓ Pre-computed one-to-many AI Quant brief
🤖 AI Quant Disclosure: Roarable Analysts are proprietary AI Quant Specialists — not human financial advisors. Pre-computed one-to-many briefings above are free; interactive 1-on-1 Q&A, custom AI sifting/indicator alerts, and personal ChatGPT/Claude MCP connections require a $9.95/mo Pro account (currently waitlist-only).
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.16 (-0.11%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 4/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (38/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.8% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GEG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±1.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (38/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY GEG SCORES 38/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (34% of score)
Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+8/20 pts (21% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±1.8% realized swing band)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 16 pts on the table
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade E$2.16-0.5% Next Q
30
Q2 (-2Q)Grade E$2.15+0.5% Next Q
33
Q3 (-1Q)Grade E$2.16+0% Next Q
35
CurrentGrade D-$2.16-7.8% Hist 90D α
38
Trajectory: E (30) → D- (38)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a GEG Turnaround Squeeze
While GEG currently carries a cautious 38/100 (D-) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.16) and Max Pain ($2.27) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $2.97.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GEG• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “GEG Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why GEG Stock advanced +0.47% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Great Elm Group Inc. (GEG) advanced +0.47% to $2.16, trading at 35% of its 52-week range ($1.8 – $2.83). Stretched risk/reward at 5x P/E (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 35% of its 52-week range ($1.8 – $2.83) with RSI-14 at 46.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±1.8% around $2.16 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 93.4% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live GEG Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIREReuters • 4h ago
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MARKET WIRECNBC • 9h ago
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MARKET WIRECNBC • 9h ago
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Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring GEG)
- ✓Walkthrough of GEG's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
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GEG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +4.35%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-10-30O $2.15H $2.16L $2.15C $2.16VOL 2.6K
RES: $2.16SUP: $2.14SMA50: $2.16SMA200: $2.14
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
GEG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-13.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. -8.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GEG today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GEG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GEG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GEG)
Technology Rank #575 of 714
⚔️ MCHX vs GEG Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (GEG vs. MCHX, SPAI, ROC, FATN)
Industry: Computer Software: Prepackaged Software (222 Tracked Issuers)Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Great Elm Group Inc. (GEG) ranks #575 by composite RQD confidence (38/100, grade D-) and #546 by equity capitalization ($66.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GEG leads on earnings valuation at 5.2x trailing P/E, while FATN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.4% ROIC and 91.0% gross margin. FATN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 53/100 (D+) compared with GEG at 38/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEG
ACTIVE
Great Elm Group Inc. | D- | 38/100 | 5.2x | 93.4% | -35.0% | +0.47% | $66.8M | Benchmark Subject |
| MCHX Marchex Inc. (Class B) | D- | 40/100 | — | 63.2% | -22.4% | +1.36% | $66.1M | /mchx-vs-geg → |
| SPAI Safe Pro Group Inc. | E | 33/100 | — | 33.3% | -35.0% | 0.00% | $69.0M | /spai-vs-geg → |
| ROC Rank One Computing Corporation | D- | 39/100 | — | 77.2% | -35.0% | +2.19% | $71.4M | /roc-vs-geg → |
| FATN FatPipe Inc. | D+ | 53/100 | 15.1x | 91.0% | 13.4% | +1.92% | $74.9M | /fatn-vs-geg → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-06-30 • CIK 0001831096In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30), Great Elm Group Inc. (GEG) reported GAAP revenue of $16.3M (-8.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $17.8M , and +88.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $12.9M, operating cash flow of -$9.0M, and free cash flow of -$9.0M (+42.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, GEG closed FY2025 with $135.5M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-06-30 | $16.3M | $12.9M | -$9.0M | -$9.0M | $135.5M | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-06-30 | $17.8M | -$1.4M | -$15.6M | -$15.6M | $138.5M | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-06-30 | $8.7M | $27.7M | -$2.4M | -$2.4M | — | — |
3. GEG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs GEG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Great Elm Group Inc. (NASDAQ: GEG) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 38/100 at a spot price of $2.16 (+0.47% 1D, market cap $66.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, GEG ranks #575 in composite RQD confidence.
How does GEG compare to MCHX and SPAI in the Technology sector?
Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), GEG carries a Roarable D- (38/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 5.2x, gross margin of 93.4%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, MCHX (Marchex Inc. (Class B)) holds a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -22.4%, cap $66.1M) and SPAI (Safe Pro Group Inc.) posts a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $69.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, GEG leads on earnings multiple (5.2x) while FATN leads on capital efficiency (13.4% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GEG?
Per GEG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30, CIK 0001831096), Great Elm Group Inc. generated $16.3M in revenue (-8.5% YoY), $12.9M in net income, and -$9.0M in free cash flow against $135.5M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is GEG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
GEG last traded at $2.16 (+0.47% on volume of 3,363 shares), positioning the stock 0.00% above its 50-day simple moving average ($2.16) and +0.93% above its 200-day simple moving average ($2.14). Across its 52-week range of $1.80 to $2.83, GEG sits at the 35.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±1.8% ($2.12 to $2.20).
GEG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is GEG stock moving today?
Why GEG Stock advanced +0.47% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 5x P/E (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.