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Great Elm Group Inc. (GEG) — RQD Stock Rating Cockpit

$2.16 +0.47% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.16

Great Elm Group Inc. (GEG) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 38/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (38/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows →

ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT Cap $66.8M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $2.16 (-0.11%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 4/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (38/100 · D-) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-7.8% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk D

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.8% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GEG)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±1.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (38/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY GEG SCORES 38/100 (D-) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+13/20 pts (34% of score)

Altman Z-Score 3.80 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 4/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+8/20 pts (21% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±1.8% realized swing band)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 16 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade E$2.16-0.5% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade E$2.15+0.5% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade E$2.16+0% Next Q

Current

Grade D-$2.16-7.8% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: E (30) → D- (38)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a GEG Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While GEG currently carries a cautious 38/100 (D-) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($2.16) and Max Pain ($2.27) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $2.97.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.36% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GEG• $4.8M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “GEG Beats Next Quarterly Revenue & EPS Consensus + Hyperscaler AI CapEx Holds Record Pace”

YES 38%NO 62%Trade / Inspect Odds →

RSI-14 MOMENTUMNEUTRAL RANGE

46.830 Oversold · 70 Hot

ALTMAN-Z SHIELDFORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)

3.80>3.0 Fortress Safe

PIOTROSKI F-SCOREWEAK QUALITY (1–4)

4 / 99-Pt Accounting

52-WEEK LASER RANGE35% OF RANGE

L: $2$2.16H: $3

1. Money & Cash Health● WEAK

Are profits real cash in the bank?

Weak cash conversion or heavy valuation strain compared to actual cash earned.

Factor Grade: ERQD 4 / 20

2. Big Money & Insiders● TRIMMING

Are whales & executives buying or selling?

Insiders and big institutional desks have been trimming shares rather than stepping up to buy.

Factor Grade: D-RQD 15 / 40

3. Hidden Risks & Market Weather● WARNING

SEC fine-print scan & interest-rate fit

High sensitivity to tight interest rates or new risk warnings added to recent SEC annual filings.

Factor Grade: DRQD 19 / 40

MULTI-MODEL JEV QUANT JURY DELIBERATION

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning on GEG

Cash & Moat Bull AI

ROIC & Free Cash Flow Model

BEARISH (20)

-35.0% ROIC with 93.4% gross margin and -13.48% FCF yield.

SEC Forensic Auditor AI

10-K Accruals & Altman-Z Guard

NEUTRAL (65)

Altman-Z 4.20 and Piotroski 4/9 pass balance-sheet audit.

Whale & Macro Hawk AI

Options Skew, 13F & Fed NetLiq

BEARISH (35)

15/40 institutional & smart-money positioning score with 6/20 macro alignment.

Bull Case: Why Buyers Like GEG

✓Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.

Bear Case: What Could Go Wrong

!Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.
!Sensitive to high interest rates and tighter Federal Reserve market liquidity.

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring GEG)

✓Walkthrough of GEG's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?

Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

GEG // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +4.35%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $2.15H $2.16L $2.15C $2.16VOL 2.6K

RES: $2.16SUP: $2.14SMA50: $2.16SMA200: $2.14

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

GEG Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 GEG Butterfly Map → + Track GEG →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-13.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. -8.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GEG today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GEG. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GEG today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GEG)

Technology Rank #575 of 714 ⚔️ MCHX vs GEG Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Technology Peer Comparison (GEG vs. MCHX, SPAI, ROC, FATN)

Industry: Computer Software: Prepackaged Software (222 Tracked Issuers)

Across 714 tracked Technology securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Great Elm Group Inc. (GEG) ranks #575 by composite RQD confidence (38/100, grade D-) and #546 by equity capitalization ($66.8M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, GEG leads on earnings valuation at 5.2x trailing P/E, while FATN leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 13.4% ROIC and 91.0% gross margin. FATN currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 53/100 (D+) compared with GEG at 38/100 (D-).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
GEG ACTIVE Great Elm Group Inc.	D-	38/100	5.2x	93.4%	-35.0%	+0.47%	$66.8M	Benchmark Subject
MCHX Marchex Inc. (Class B)	D-	40/100	—	63.2%	-22.4%	+1.36%	$66.1M	/mchx-vs-geg →
SPAI Safe Pro Group Inc.	E	33/100	—	33.3%	-35.0%	0.00%	$69.0M	/spai-vs-geg →
ROC Rank One Computing Corporation	D-	39/100	—	77.2%	-35.0%	+2.19%	$71.4M	/roc-vs-geg →
FATN FatPipe Inc.	D+	53/100	15.1x	91.0%	13.4%	+1.92%	$74.9M	/fatn-vs-geg →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-06-30 • CIK 0001831096

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30), Great Elm Group Inc. (GEG) reported GAAP revenue of $16.3M (-8.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $17.8M , and +88.3% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $12.9M, operating cash flow of -$9.0M, and free cash flow of -$9.0M (+42.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, GEG closed FY2025 with $135.5M in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-06-30	$16.3M	$12.9M	-$9.0M	-$9.0M	$135.5M	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-06-30	$17.8M	-$1.4M	-$15.6M	-$15.6M	$138.5M	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-06-30	$8.7M	$27.7M	-$2.4M	-$2.4M	—	—

3. GEG Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is GEG stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Great Elm Group Inc. (NASDAQ: GEG) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 38/100 at a spot price of $2.16 (+0.47% 1D, market cap $66.8M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 4/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 6/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 7/20. Across 714 tracked Technology issuers, GEG ranks #575 in composite RQD confidence.

How does GEG compare to MCHX and SPAI in the Technology sector?

Within the Technology sector (Computer Software: Prepackaged Software), GEG carries a Roarable D- (38/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 5.2x, gross margin of 93.4%, and ROIC of -35.0%. By comparison, MCHX (Marchex Inc. (Class B)) holds a D- grade (40/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -22.4%, cap $66.1M) and SPAI (Safe Pro Group Inc.) posts a E grade (33/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC -35.0%, cap $69.0M). Among the 5-stock peer group, GEG leads on earnings multiple (5.2x) while FATN leads on capital efficiency (13.4% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GEG?

Per GEG's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-06-30, CIK 0001831096), Great Elm Group Inc. generated $16.3M in revenue (-8.5% YoY), $12.9M in net income, and -$9.0M in free cash flow against $135.5M in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Technology with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is GEG trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

GEG last traded at $2.16 (+0.47% on volume of 3,363 shares), positioning the stock 0.00% above its 50-day simple moving average ($2.16) and +0.93% above its 200-day simple moving average ($2.14). Across its 52-week range of $1.80 to $2.83, GEG sits at the 35.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 46.8 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±1.8% ($2.12 to $2.20).

GEG Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

Should I buy, hold, or sell GEG stock right now?

Great Elm Group Inc. (GEG) currently earns a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell — SELL) with 38/100 RQD Confidence. Stretched risk/reward at 5x P/E (-35% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.

What is GEG's 12-month price target and RQD AI Jury consensus?

GEG's 12-month base price target is $1.97 (range $1.54 to $2.97), backed by transparent SEC XBRL cash-flow, Form 4 insider, and CBOE options flow analysis.

Direct Sub-Reports: GEG RQD Cockpit GEG 12M Forecast GEG Earnings & Move GEG Dividends & DRIP GEG Insiders & 13F GEG Whale Options GEG Profit Sankey GEG News & Why