Golub Capital BDC Inc. (GBDC) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 51/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±4.1% realized swing band)
FRED Regime × Technicals: 38% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 62 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)
Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 15 pts on the table
While GBDC currently carries a cautious 51/100 (D) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($12.54) and Max Pain ($13.42) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $15.13.
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.24% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
Golub Capital BDC Inc. (GBDC) surged +2.65% to $12.78, trading at 38% of its 52-week range ($11.77 – $14.41). Stretched risk/reward at 9x P/E (10% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
A six-figure monthly paycheck from dividends sounds straightforward until you see how three very different buckets fight each other, and which one quietly carries most of the risk.
A Roth IRA turns every dollar of yield into spendable income with no federal tax, but the portfolio size you actually need at 60 depends on which yield tier you trust with your retirement, and the tradeoffs between them
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GBDC today. View full Setup Ledger →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GBDC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Golub Capital BDC Inc. (GBDC) ranks #781 by composite RQD confidence (51/100, grade D) and #344 by equity capitalization ($3.32B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SLM leads on earnings valuation at 4.5x trailing P/E, while PURR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 33.0% ROIC and — gross margin. PURR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with GBDC at 51/100 (D).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GBDC
ACTIVE
Golub Capital BDC Inc. | D | 51/100 | 8.8x | — | 9.6% | +2.65% | $3.32B | Benchmark Subject |
| SLM SLM Corporation | D- | 38/100 | 4.5x | — | 7.4% | +2.99% | $3.34B | /slm-vs-gbdc → |
| PFSI PennyMac Financial Services Inc. | D+ | 58/100 | 6.7x | — | 11.6% | +1.56% | $3.35B | /pfsi-vs-gbdc → |
| GPGI GPGI Inc. (Class A) | D- | 37/100 | — | — | -6.5% | +4.13% | $3.36B | /gpgi-vs-gbdc → |
| PURR Hyperliquid Strategies Inc | B- | 71/100 | 32.8x | — | 33.0% | +23.27% | $3.42B | /purr-vs-gbdc → |
In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), Golub Capital BDC Inc. (GBDC) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $376.6M, operating cash flow of -$113.6M, and free cash flow of -$113.6M (-133.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, GBDC closed FY2025 with $8.89B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-09-30 | $0 | $376.6M | -$113.6M | -$113.6M | $8.89B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-09-30 | $0 | $273.8M | $343.9M | $343.9M | $9.01B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-09-30 | $0 | $258.6M | $195.4M | $195.4M | — | — |
As of 2026-11-01, Golub Capital BDC Inc. (NASDAQ: GBDC) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 51/100 at a spot price of $12.78 (+2.65% 1D, market cap $3.32B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, GBDC ranks #781 in composite RQD confidence.
Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), GBDC carries a Roarable D (51/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.6%. By comparison, SLM (SLM Corporation) holds a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E 4.5x, ROIC 7.4%, cap $3.34B) and PFSI (PennyMac Financial Services Inc.) posts a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 6.7x, ROIC 11.6%, cap $3.35B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SLM leads on earnings multiple (4.5x) while PURR leads on capital efficiency (33.0% ROIC).
Per GBDC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001476765), Golub Capital BDC Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $376.6M in net income, and -$113.6M in free cash flow against $8.89B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
GBDC last traded at $12.78 (+2.65% on volume of 1,137,240 shares), positioning the stock +1.91% above its 50-day simple moving average ($12.54) and -0.23% below its 200-day simple moving average ($12.81). Across its 52-week range of $11.77 to $14.41, GBDC sits at the 38.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 62.0 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.1% ($12.26 to $13.30).
Why GBDC Stock surged +2.65% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 9x P/E (10% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.