Stock Ratings / Financials / GBDC / financials

SLM (38) PFSI (58) GPGI (37) PURR (71) ⌘ Pro Terminal →

Golub Capital BDC Inc. (GBDC) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$12.78 +2.65% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.82

Golub Capital BDC Inc. (GBDC) carries a Roarable Rating of D (Sell) with 51/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 51/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE D • SELL / AVOID Cap $3.32B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $12.82 (+0.29%)🧬 Disciplined Float (+0.24% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 5/20 (E) • 0% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 51/100 (D) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (-1.3% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 49.7% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERSELL / AVOID • D

2-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk D+

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE-3.1% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for GBDC)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (51/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY GBDC SCORES 51/100 (D) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+13/20 pts (25% of score)

20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±4.1% realized swing band)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Macro Regime Fit+12/20 pts (24% of score)

FRED Regime × Technicals: 38% of 52W Range • RSI-14 at 62 (BULLISH MOMENTUM)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Cash Engine Quality5/20 pts (-15 pt drag)

Capital intensity & 0% operating margin leave 15 pts on the table

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade D$12.10+0.2% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade D$12.12+0% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade D$12.12+5.4% Next Q

Current

Grade D$12.78-1.3% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: D (43) → D (51)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a GBDC Turnaround Squeeze

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

While GBDC currently carries a cautious 51/100 (D) rating due to Cash Engine Quality (5/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1

Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2

Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($12.54) and Max Pain ($13.42) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $15.13.

🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3

Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Disciplined Float (+0.24% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $GBDC• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “GBDC Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 29, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 51%NO 49%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How GBDC Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$0 (0% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $4.00B

FY24

Rev $4.00B

FY25

Rev $4.00B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$4.00B	52%	0%	$376.6M	-$113.6M	9.6%
FY 2024	$4.00B	52%	0%	$273.8M	$343.9M	9.6%
FY 2023	$4.00B	52%	0%	$258.6M	$195.4M	9.6%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring GBDC)

✓Walkthrough of GBDC's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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Join Founding VIP Waitlist (No Card Required) →$100K Arena

GBDC // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -6.72%▼ DESCENDING CHANNEL

2026-10-30O $12.82H $12.82L $12.63C $12.78VOL 1.07M

RES: $13.11SUP: $11.66SMA50: $12.54SMA200: $12.81

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

GBDC Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 GBDC Butterfly Map → + Track GBDC →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-3.7%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on GBDC today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for GBDC. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for GBDC today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (GBDC)

Financials Rank #781 of 1096 ⚔️ SLM vs GBDC Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (GBDC vs. SLM, PFSI, GPGI, PURR)

Industry: Finance: Consumer Services (156 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Golub Capital BDC Inc. (GBDC) ranks #781 by composite RQD confidence (51/100, grade D) and #344 by equity capitalization ($3.32B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, SLM leads on earnings valuation at 4.5x trailing P/E, while PURR leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 33.0% ROIC and — gross margin. PURR currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 71/100 (B-) compared with GBDC at 51/100 (D).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
GBDC ACTIVE Golub Capital BDC Inc.	D	51/100	8.8x	—	9.6%	+2.65%	$3.32B	Benchmark Subject
SLM SLM Corporation	D-	38/100	4.5x	—	7.4%	+2.99%	$3.34B	/slm-vs-gbdc →
PFSI PennyMac Financial Services Inc.	D+	58/100	6.7x	—	11.6%	+1.56%	$3.35B	/pfsi-vs-gbdc →
GPGI GPGI Inc. (Class A)	D-	37/100	—	—	-6.5%	+4.13%	$3.36B	/gpgi-vs-gbdc →
PURR Hyperliquid Strategies Inc	B-	71/100	32.8x	—	33.0%	+23.27%	$3.42B	/purr-vs-gbdc →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-09-30 • CIK 0001476765

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30), Golub Capital BDC Inc. (GBDC) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 ) , GAAP net income of $376.6M, operating cash flow of -$113.6M, and free cash flow of -$113.6M (-133.0% YoY). On the balance sheet, GBDC closed FY2025 with $8.89B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-09-30	$0	$376.6M	-$113.6M	-$113.6M	$8.89B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-09-30	$0	$273.8M	$343.9M	$343.9M	$9.01B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-09-30	$0	$258.6M	$195.4M	$195.4M	—	—

3. GBDC Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is GBDC stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Golub Capital BDC Inc. (NASDAQ: GBDC) is rated D (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 51/100 at a spot price of $12.78 (+2.65% 1D, market cap $3.32B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 5/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 13/20, Executive Insider Alignment 10/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 11/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, GBDC ranks #781 in composite RQD confidence.

How does GBDC compare to SLM and PFSI in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Finance: Consumer Services), GBDC carries a Roarable D (51/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 8.8x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 9.6%. By comparison, SLM (SLM Corporation) holds a D- grade (38/100 RQD, P/E 4.5x, ROIC 7.4%, cap $3.34B) and PFSI (PennyMac Financial Services Inc.) posts a D+ grade (58/100 RQD, P/E 6.7x, ROIC 11.6%, cap $3.35B). Among the 5-stock peer group, SLM leads on earnings multiple (4.5x) while PURR leads on capital efficiency (33.0% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for GBDC?

Per GBDC's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-09-30, CIK 0001476765), Golub Capital BDC Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $376.6M in net income, and -$113.6M in free cash flow against $8.89B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Financials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Recent SEC filings added new risk-factor disclosures that warrant keeping an eye on margins.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is GBDC trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

GBDC last traded at $12.78 (+2.65% on volume of 1,137,240 shares), positioning the stock +1.91% above its 50-day simple moving average ($12.54) and -0.23% below its 200-day simple moving average ($12.81). Across its 52-week range of $11.77 to $14.41, GBDC sits at the 38.3% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 62.0 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.1% ($12.26 to $13.30).