MARKET WIREReuters • 2h ago
Iran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz - ReutersIran's IRGC Navy says two tankers 'exploded' after hitting mines in Hormuz Reuters
Why FWRD Stock advanced +1.88% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$17.87 +1.88% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.90
Forward Air Corporation (FWRD) carries a Roarable Rating of E (Strong Sell) with 23/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE E • RED ALERT
Cap $603.7M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $17.90 (+0.15%)🧬 Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 6/20 (E) • 0.7% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record Warning: Scores below 50 (23/100 · E) historically underperformed SPY in 71% of rolling 90-day windows (-11.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 29.0% hit rate).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • E
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw E · Rk E
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-15.7% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FWRD)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±11%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (23/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY FWRD SCORES 23/100 (E) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Whale & Options Positioning+8/20 pts (35% of score)
20D Institutional Volume Accumulation (±11% realized swing band)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+6/20 pts (26% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 0.7% FCF Margin ($16.9M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution4/20 pts (-16 pt drag)
Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares) & executive Form 4 sales trim 16 pts from alignment
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade E$15.64-3.8% Next Q
15
Q2 (-2Q)Grade E$15.04+1.7% Next Q
18
Q3 (-1Q)Grade E$15.30+16.8% Next Q
20
CurrentGrade E$17.87-11.1% Hist 90D α
23
Trajectory: E (15) → E (23)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)CONTRARIAN TURNAROUND & SHORT-SQUEEZE DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: What Could Spark a FWRD Turnaround Squeeze
While FWRD currently carries a cautious 23/100 (E) rating due to Insider Conviction & Share Dilution (4/20), shorts face asymmetric squeeze risk if free cash flow inflects or management executes accretive buybacks.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #1
Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #2
Options & Short-Covering Gamma: Reclaiming the 50-day SMA ($16.03) and Max Pain ($18.76) forces dealer call-delta covering toward $32.74.
🚀 Contrarian Squeeze Trigger #3
Forensic Repair Trigger: Halting share dilution (Dilution Drag (+1.28% YoY Shares)) or retiring high-cost debt immediately upgrades the SEC 10-K Forensic pillar.
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FWRD• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “FWRD Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why FWRD Stock advanced +1.88% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Forward Air Corporation (FWRD) advanced +1.88% to $17.87, trading at 43% of its 52-week range ($7.86 – $31.18). Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (2% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 43% of its 52-week range ($7.86 – $31.18) with RSI-14 at 64.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±11% around $17.87 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable E (Strong Sell) backed by 52% gross margin and $16.9M annual free cash flow.
Live FWRD Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 4h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
MARKET WIRECNBC • 4h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 6h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 8h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 8h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 9h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk
Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring FWRD)
- ✓Walkthrough of FWRD's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
- ✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
- ✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
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FWRD // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -15.15%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-10-30O $17.89H $18.35L $17.25C $17.87VOL 441.7K
RES: $15.32SUP: $15.23SMA50: $16.03SMA200: $17.65
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
FWRD Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
33.3%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +0.8% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FWRD today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FWRD. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FWRD today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FWRD)
Industrials Rank #480 of 485
⚔️ RLGT vs FWRD Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (FWRD vs. RLGT, HUBG, BCO, PSIG)
Industry: Integrated Freight & Logistics (16 Tracked Issuers)Across 485 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Forward Air Corporation (FWRD) ranks #480 by composite RQD confidence (23/100, grade E) and #285 by equity capitalization ($603.7M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, BCO leads on earnings valuation at 21.1x trailing P/E, while BCO leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 19.6% ROIC and 25.8% gross margin. RLGT currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 53/100 (D+) compared with FWRD at 23/100 (E).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FWRD
ACTIVE
Forward Air Corporation | E | 23/100 | — | — | 1.7% | +1.88% | $603.7M | Benchmark Subject |
| RLGT Radiant Logistics Inc. | D+ | 53/100 | 24.7x | — | 8.4% | +0.44% | $426.6M | /rlgt-vs-fwrd → |
| HUBG Hub Group Inc. (Class A) | D | 50/100 | — | — | — | +1.56% | $1.63B | /hubg-vs-fwrd → |
| BCO Brinks Company | D | 46/100 | 21.1x | 25.8% | 19.6% | +2.00% | $4.21B | /bco-vs-fwrd → |
| PSIG PS International Group Ltd. | E | 32/100 | — | 1.9% | -32.0% | +0.82% | $75.5M | /psig-vs-fwrd → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0000912728In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Forward Air Corporation (FWRD) reported GAAP revenue of $2.50B (+0.8% vs. FY2024 revenue of $2.47B , and +82.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of -$104.0M, operating cash flow of $0, and free cash flow of $0 . On the balance sheet, FWRD closed FY2025 with $2.72B in total assets against $1.69B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 0.91, Piotroski F-Score: 2/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $2.50B | -$104.0M | — | — | $2.72B | $1.69B |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $2.47B | -$820.0M | — | — | $2.80B | $1.68B |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $1.37B | $167.0M | — | — | — | — |
3. FWRD Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs FWRD stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Forward Air Corporation (NASDAQ: FWRD) is rated E (Strong Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 23/100 at a spot price of $17.87 (+1.88% 1D, market cap $603.7M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 6/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 3/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 5/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 3/20. Across 485 tracked Industrials issuers, FWRD ranks #480 in composite RQD confidence.
How does FWRD compare to RLGT and HUBG in the Industrials sector?
Within the Industrials sector (Integrated Freight & Logistics), FWRD carries a Roarable E (23/100 RQD), trailing P/E of N/A, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 1.7%. By comparison, RLGT (Radiant Logistics Inc.) holds a D+ grade (53/100 RQD, P/E 24.7x, ROIC 8.4%, cap $426.6M) and HUBG (Hub Group Inc. (Class A)) posts a D grade (50/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC —, cap $1.63B). Among the 5-stock peer group, BCO leads on earnings multiple (21.1x) while BCO leads on capital efficiency (19.6% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FWRD?
Per FWRD's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0000912728), Forward Air Corporation generated $2.50B in revenue (+0.8% YoY), -$104.0M in net income, and $0 in free cash flow against $2.72B in total assets and $1.69B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is FWRD trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
FWRD last traded at $17.87 (+1.88% on volume of 599,819 shares), positioning the stock +11.48% above its 50-day simple moving average ($16.03) and +1.25% above its 200-day simple moving average ($17.65). Across its 52-week range of $7.86 to $31.18, FWRD sits at the 42.9% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 64.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±11.0% ($15.90 to $19.84).
FWRD Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is FWRD stock moving today?
Why FWRD Stock advanced +1.88% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at current multiples (2% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.