RISK WATCHReuters • 52m ago
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Why FTAI Stock surged +17.27% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$196.01 +17.27% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI) carries a Roarable Rating of D- (Sell) with 39/100 RQD Confidence due to weak cash-flow efficiency and sensitivity to current interest rates. Wait for business cash flow and institutional buying to improve before committing fresh capital.
ROARABLE D- • RED ALERT
Cap $20.13B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
RQD QUANT TACHOMETERRED ALERT • D-
3-of-3 JEV AI Jury Bearish Warning
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw D · Rk E
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE-8.6% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FTAI)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±12.5%
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why FTAI Stock surged +17.27% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI) surged +17.27% to $196.01, trading at 28% of its 52-week range ($146.48 – $323.51). Stretched risk/reward at 66x P/E (18% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 28% of its 52-week range ($146.48 – $323.51) with RSI-14 at 63.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±12.5% around $196.01 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable D- (Sell) backed by 46.2% gross margin and $0 annual free cash flow.
Live FTAI Headlines & Catalysts
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- ✓Walkthrough of FTAI's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
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FTAI // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -18.33%▲ RESISTANCE BREAKOUT
2026-11-01O $167.1H $196.0L $167.1C $196.0VOL 3.44M
RES: $194.8SUP: $143.2SMA50: $178.7SMA200: $231.6
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
FTAI Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
44.0%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +44.5% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FTAI today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FTAI. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FTAI today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FTAI)
Industrials Rank #155 of 166
⚔️ HRI vs FTAI Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Industrials Peer Comparison (FTAI vs. HRI, WSC, FTV, JBHT)
Industry: Misc Corporate Leasing Services (3 Tracked Issuers)Across 166 tracked Industrials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI) ranks #155 by composite RQD confidence (39/100, grade D-) and #62 by equity capitalization ($20.13B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, JBHT leads on earnings valuation at 34.6x trailing P/E, while FTAI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 18.0% ROIC and 46.2% gross margin. FTV currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 67/100 (C+) compared with FTAI at 39/100 (D-).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FTAI
ACTIVE
FTAI Aviation Ltd. | D- | 39/100 | 65.6x | 46.2% | 18.0% | +17.27% | $20.13B | Benchmark Subject |
| HRI Herc Holdings Inc. | D+ | 57/100 | — | — | 0.0% | +4.68% | $5.82B | /hri-vs-ftai → |
| WSC WillScot Holdings Corporation | D | 44/100 | — | 51.0% | 4.9% | +3.28% | $3.36B | /wsc-vs-ftai → |
| FTV Fortive Corporation | C+ | 67/100 | 36.8x | 63.5% | 6.8% | +2.70% | $19.60B | /ftv-vs-ftai → |
| JBHT J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. | C+ | 66/100 | 34.6x | — | 15.8% | -0.54% | $20.70B | /jbht-vs-ftai → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001590364In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), FTAI Aviation Ltd. (FTAI) reported GAAP revenue of $2.51B (+44.5% vs. FY2024 revenue of $1.73B , and +114.1% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $0, operating cash flow of -$310.7M, and free cash flow of -$338.5M (-71.7% YoY). On the balance sheet, FTAI closed FY2025 with $4.37B in total assets against $1.82B in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.42, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $2.51B | $0 | -$310.7M | -$338.5M | $4.37B | $1.82B |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $1.73B | $0 | -$188.0M | -$197.2M | $4.04B | $1.78B |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $1.17B | $0 | $129.0M | $76.3M | $11.07B | $2.59B |
3. FTAI Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs FTAI stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, FTAI Aviation Ltd. (NASDAQ: FTAI) is rated D- (Sell / SELL) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 39/100 at a spot price of $196.01 (+17.27% 1D, market cap $20.13B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 10/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 12/20, Executive Insider Alignment 9/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 3/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 5/20. Across 166 tracked Industrials issuers, FTAI ranks #155 in composite RQD confidence.
How does FTAI compare to HRI and WSC in the Industrials sector?
Within the Industrials sector (Misc Corporate Leasing Services), FTAI carries a Roarable D- (39/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 65.6x, gross margin of 46.2%, and ROIC of 18.0%. By comparison, HRI (Herc Holdings Inc.) holds a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 0.0%, cap $5.82B) and WSC (WillScot Holdings Corporation) posts a D grade (44/100 RQD, P/E N/A, ROIC 4.9%, cap $3.36B). Among the 5-stock peer group, JBHT leads on earnings multiple (34.6x) while FTAI leads on capital efficiency (18.0% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FTAI?
Per FTAI's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001590364), FTAI Aviation Ltd. generated $2.51B in revenue (+44.5% YoY), $0 in net income, and -$338.5M in free cash flow against $4.37B in total assets and $1.82B in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Established market leader in Industrials with deep daily trading liquidity.. Primary risk factors monitored: Company executives have done more routine share selling than personal cash buying lately.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is FTAI trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
FTAI last traded at $196.01 (+17.27% on volume of 3,441,149 shares), positioning the stock +9.69% above its 50-day simple moving average ($178.70) and -15.36% below its 200-day simple moving average ($231.58). Across its 52-week range of $146.48 to $323.51, FTAI sits at the 28.0% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 63.2 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±12.5% ($171.51 to $220.51).
FTAI Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is FTAI stock moving today?
Why FTAI Stock surged +17.27% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Stretched risk/reward at 66x P/E (18% return on capital) under elevated 10-year interest-rate pressure.