Stock Ratings / Financials / FSBW / options

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FS Bancorp Inc. (FSBW) Options Positioning, Max Pain & Unusual Sweeps

$44.34 +1.33% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $44.36

FS Bancorp Inc. (FSBW) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $348.6M

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $44.36 (+0.05%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 1.3% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.3% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FSBW)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.8%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY FSBW SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (25% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (22% of score)

SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 1.3% FCF Margin ($51.9M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$44.10+1.7% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$44.85-2.2% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$43.88+1% Next Q

Current

Grade C$44.34+0.9% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (55) → C (63)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the FSBW Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 63/100 (C) score, FSBW faces multiple-compression risk if 10.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($43.81) or 200D SMA ($42.01) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($45.34) toward Bear Floor ($35.37).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FSBW• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “FSBW Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 63%NO 37%Trade / Inspect Odds →

CALL VS. PUT WHALE SHARE

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

Put/Call Ratio: — (No Active Options Snapshot)

MAX-PAIN EXPIRATION MAGNET

— (No Active Options Snapshot)

No active options chain max-pain snapshot on file

HISTORICAL 20D VOLATILITY SWING

±4.8%

Derived from 20D OHLCV bars (No Active Options Snapshot)

Active Strike Call vs. Put Concentration Ladder (FSBW)

— (No Active Options Snapshot) — No unusual CBOE strike concentration anomalies recorded in the current database snapshot for FSBW.

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ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher + Options & Swing Structure Desk

Whale Flow & Momentum Playbook: Evaluating FSBW & AI Leaders Without Chasing Tops

✓Institutional whale strikes & implied earnings move audit on FSBW
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✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on tracked leaders

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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FSBW // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +9.10%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE

2026-10-30O $44.64H $44.64L $43.72C $44.34VOL 22.7K

RES: $45.22SUP: $42.19SMA50: $43.81SMA200: $42.01

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FSBW Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 FSBW Butterfly Map → + Track FSBW →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

-0.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FSBW today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FSBW. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FSBW today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FSBW)

Financials Rank #401 of 1096 ⚔️ TSBK vs FSBW Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (FSBW vs. TSBK, NECB, FBLA, PBFS)

Industry: Banks (24 Tracked Issuers)

Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, FS Bancorp Inc. (FSBW) ranks #401 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #782 by equity capitalization ($348.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NECB leads on earnings valuation at 9.0x trailing P/E, while NECB leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.6% ROIC and — gross margin. NECB currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with FSBW at 63/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
FSBW ACTIVE FS Bancorp Inc.	C	63/100	10.5x	—	10.8%	+1.33%	$348.6M	Benchmark Subject
TSBK Timberland Bancorp Inc.	B-	71/100	12.6x	—	10.9%	+0.38%	$367.5M	/tsbk-vs-fsbw →
NECB NorthEast Community Bancorp Inc.	B	72/100	9.0x	—	12.6%	+1.15%	$398.8M	/necb-vs-fsbw →
FBLA FB Bancorp Inc.	D	44/100	—	—	0.4%	-1.56%	$271.0M	/fbla-vs-fsbw →
PBFS Pioneer Bancorp Inc.	C-	59/100	22.2x	—	6.3%	+0.28%	$450.1M	/pbfs-vs-fsbw →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001530249

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), FS Bancorp Inc. (FSBW) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 , and -100.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $33.3M, operating cash flow of $72.3M, and free cash flow of $51.9M (+5.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, FSBW closed FY2025 with $3.20B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$0	$33.3M	$72.3M	$51.9M	$3.20B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$0	$35.0M	$50.8M	$49.2M	$3.03B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$4.6M	$36.1M	$77.7M	$77.7M	—	—

3. FSBW Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FSBW stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, FS Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: FSBW) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $44.34 (+1.33% 1D, market cap $348.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, FSBW ranks #401 in composite RQD confidence.

How does FSBW compare to TSBK and NECB in the Financials sector?

Within the Financials sector (Banks), FSBW carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.8%. By comparison, TSBK (Timberland Bancorp Inc.) holds a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 12.6x, ROIC 10.9%, cap $367.5M) and NECB (NorthEast Community Bancorp Inc.) posts a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 9.0x, ROIC 12.6%, cap $398.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NECB leads on earnings multiple (9.0x) while NECB leads on capital efficiency (12.6% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FSBW?

Per FSBW's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001530249), FS Bancorp Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $33.3M in net income, and $51.9M in free cash flow against $3.20B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is FSBW trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FSBW last traded at $44.34 (+1.33% on volume of 33,413 shares), positioning the stock +1.21% above its 50-day simple moving average ($43.81) and +5.55% above its 200-day simple moving average ($42.01). Across its 52-week range of $36.66 to $45.85, FSBW sits at the 83.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.8% ($42.21 to $46.47).

FSBW Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

What is FSBW's options positioning and volatility profile?

Roarable tracks verified CBOE unusual options sweeps, put/call ratios, and OHLCV realized volatility bands for FSBW.

Direct Sub-Reports: FSBW RQD Cockpit FSBW 12M Forecast FSBW Earnings & Move FSBW Dividends & DRIP FSBW Insiders & 13F FSBW Whale Options FSBW Profit Sankey FSBW News & Why