MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why FSBW Stock advanced +1.33% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$44.34 +1.33% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $44.36
FS Bancorp Inc. (FSBW) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 63/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $348.6M
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $44.36 (+0.05%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 14/20 (B-) • 1.3% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 63/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+0.9% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 54.8% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C · Rk C
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.3% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FSBW)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±4.8%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (63/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY FSBW SCORES 63/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+16/20 pts (25% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 80% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares)
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Cash Engine Quality+14/20 pts (22% of score)
SEC XBRL FY 2025 (10-K): 1.3% FCF Margin ($51.9M FCF) & 52% Gross Margin
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning8/20 pts (-12 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-12 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C$44.10+1.7% Next Q
55
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C$44.85-2.2% Next Q
58
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C$43.88+1% Next Q
60
CurrentGrade C$44.34+0.9% Hist 90D α
63
Trajectory: C (55) → C (63)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the FSBW Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 63/100 (C) score, FSBW faces multiple-compression risk if 10.5x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.36% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 49.5% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($43.81) or 200D SMA ($42.01) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($45.34) toward Bear Floor ($35.37).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FSBW• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “FSBW Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why FSBW Stock advanced +1.33% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
FS Bancorp Inc. (FSBW) advanced +1.33% to $44.34, trading at 84% of its 52-week range ($36.66 – $45.85). Solid steady margins (11% return on capital), mixed timing at 11x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 84% of its 52-week range ($36.66 – $45.85) with RSI-14 at 49.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±4.8% around $44.34 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C (Hold) backed by 52% gross margin and $51.9M annual free cash flow.
Live FSBW Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (FSBW Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
FSBW // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: +9.10%📐 HORIZONTAL RANGE
2026-10-30O $44.64H $44.64L $43.72C $44.34VOL 22.7K
RES: $45.22SUP: $42.19SMA50: $43.81SMA200: $42.01
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
FSBW Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
-0.2%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +6.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FSBW today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FSBW. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FSBW today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FSBW)
Financials Rank #401 of 1096
⚔️ TSBK vs FSBW Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Financials Peer Comparison (FSBW vs. TSBK, NECB, FBLA, PBFS)
Industry: Banks (24 Tracked Issuers)Across 1096 tracked Financials securities in the Roarable RQD universe, FS Bancorp Inc. (FSBW) ranks #401 by composite RQD confidence (63/100, grade C) and #782 by equity capitalization ($348.6M). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, NECB leads on earnings valuation at 9.0x trailing P/E, while NECB leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 12.6% ROIC and — gross margin. NECB currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 72/100 (B) compared with FSBW at 63/100 (C).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FSBW
ACTIVE
FS Bancorp Inc. | C | 63/100 | 10.5x | — | 10.8% | +1.33% | $348.6M | Benchmark Subject |
| TSBK Timberland Bancorp Inc. | B- | 71/100 | 12.6x | — | 10.9% | +0.38% | $367.5M | /tsbk-vs-fsbw → |
| NECB NorthEast Community Bancorp Inc. | B | 72/100 | 9.0x | — | 12.6% | +1.15% | $398.8M | /necb-vs-fsbw → |
| FBLA FB Bancorp Inc. | D | 44/100 | — | — | 0.4% | -1.56% | $271.0M | /fbla-vs-fsbw → |
| PBFS Pioneer Bancorp Inc. | C- | 59/100 | 22.2x | — | 6.3% | +0.28% | $450.1M | /pbfs-vs-fsbw → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001530249In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), FS Bancorp Inc. (FSBW) reported GAAP revenue of $0 (N/A vs. FY2024 revenue of $0 , and -100.0% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $33.3M, operating cash flow of $72.3M, and free cash flow of $51.9M (+5.6% YoY). On the balance sheet, FSBW closed FY2025 with $3.20B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: N/A, Piotroski F-Score: 4/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $0 | $33.3M | $72.3M | $51.9M | $3.20B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $0 | $35.0M | $50.8M | $49.2M | $3.03B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $4.6M | $36.1M | $77.7M | $77.7M | — | — |
3. FSBW Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs FSBW stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, FS Bancorp Inc. (NASDAQ: FSBW) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 63/100 at a spot price of $44.34 (+1.33% 1D, market cap $348.6M). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 14/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 8/20, Executive Insider Alignment 13/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 16/20. Across 1096 tracked Financials issuers, FSBW ranks #401 in composite RQD confidence.
How does FSBW compare to TSBK and NECB in the Financials sector?
Within the Financials sector (Banks), FSBW carries a Roarable C (63/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 10.5x, gross margin of —, and ROIC of 10.8%. By comparison, TSBK (Timberland Bancorp Inc.) holds a B- grade (71/100 RQD, P/E 12.6x, ROIC 10.9%, cap $367.5M) and NECB (NorthEast Community Bancorp Inc.) posts a B grade (72/100 RQD, P/E 9.0x, ROIC 12.6%, cap $398.8M). Among the 5-stock peer group, NECB leads on earnings multiple (9.0x) while NECB leads on capital efficiency (12.6% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FSBW?
Per FSBW's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001530249), FS Bancorp Inc. generated $0 in revenue, $33.3M in net income, and $51.9M in free cash flow against $3.20B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is FSBW trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
FSBW last traded at $44.34 (+1.33% on volume of 33,413 shares), positioning the stock +1.21% above its 50-day simple moving average ($43.81) and +5.55% above its 200-day simple moving average ($42.01). Across its 52-week range of $36.66 to $45.85, FSBW sits at the 83.6% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 49.1 (NEUTRAL RANGE) and an implied next-earnings move of ±4.8% ($42.21 to $46.47).
FSBW Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is FSBW stock moving today?
Why FSBW Stock advanced +1.33% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid steady margins (11% return on capital), mixed timing at 11x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.