MARKET WIRECNBC • 2h ago
Here are 3 big things we're watching in the stock market in the week aheadThe market could use a few victories in the days ahead, which will be filled with more earnings, an election, and jobs data.
Why FRPT Stock advanced +1.63% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
$66.12 +1.63% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot)
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $66.19
Freshpet Inc. (FRPT) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 64/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.
ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH
Cap $3.18B
INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:
EXT / AFTER-HRS: $66.19 (+0.10%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 14.6% FCF Margin
Verify 90D Bucket Audit →📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).
Audit Bucket Track Record →RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C
JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)
Cash
SEC
Whale
Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer
5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C- · Rk B-
Each axis scored 0–20
12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.7% Base Target
WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FRPT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.1%
Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (64/100 Composite)
🔍 WHY FRPT SCORES 64/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag
▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (25% of score)
Altman Z-Score 4.24 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9
▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (23% of score)
SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)
▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)
Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)
📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current
Q1 (-3Q)Grade C$64.07+4% Next Q
56
Q2 (-2Q)Grade C$66.63-3.8% Next Q
59
Q3 (-1Q)Grade C$64.12+3.1% Next Q
61
CurrentGrade C$66.12+1.1% Hist 90D α
64
Trajectory: C (56) → C (64)Full Audit →
⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER
⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the FRPT Bull Thesis Could Fail
Even with a 64/100 (C) score, FRPT faces multiple-compression risk if 22.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1
Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2
Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 38.3% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.
⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3
Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($65.22) or 200D SMA ($63.84) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($67.91) toward Bear Floor ($52.97).
🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FRPT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite
Contract: “FRPT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”
AUTOMATED RQD QUANT DESK MOVER BRIEFINGFull Market News Desk →
Why FRPT Stock advanced +1.63% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash
Freshpet Inc. (FRPT) advanced +1.63% to $66.12, trading at 50% of its 52-week range ($46.45 – $86). Solid 41% profit margin (6% return on capital), mixed timing at 23x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.
- ▸Technical Tape: Trading at 50% of its 52-week range ($46.45 – $86) with RSI-14 at 58.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM).
- ▸Volatility Profile: Historical 20-day realized swing band of ±8.1% around $66.12 (no active unusual options sweep snapshot on file).
- ▸Fundamental Anchor: Roarable C (Hold) backed by 40.8% gross margin and $160.6M annual free cash flow.
Live FRPT Headlines & Catalysts
MARKET WIRECNBC • 3h ago
Democratic Rep. Stevens endorses Rogers over El-Sayed in Michigan Senate electionHaley Stevens had lost the Democratic nomination for Senate in Michigan to Abdul El-Sayed earlier this year.
RISK WATCHReuters • 4h ago
Israeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say - ReutersIsraeli strikes kill eight people in Gaza - medics say Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 5h ago
Russia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off - ReutersRussia's FSB says minor detained over park attack threat after US tip-off Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 6h ago
Iran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war - ReutersIran, Qatari mediators hold third day of talks to end US-Iran war Reuters
CATALYSTReuters • 7h ago
Qatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns - ReutersQatar surges, bucking Gulf market slide on Iran war concerns Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
OPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 - ReutersOPEC+ keeps December oil output targets steady ahead of tougher call for 2027 Reuters
MARKET WIREReuters • 7h ago
German ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt - ReutersGerman ministers pledge tough action after rioters damage stores in Frankfurt Reuters
ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Quantitative Research Desk
Scheduled RQD Strong Buys & Whale Accumulation Briefing (FRPT Tape Review)
- ✓Breakdown of the highest-scoring RQD Green-Light breakouts across our 5,200+ rated universe
- ✓Forensic Red-Light accounting & dilution traps to review on your watchlist
- ✓Includes downloadable .ics calendar invite & nightly RQD rating-change email alerts
RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED
Want Custom AI PineScript / Python Indicators & Priority Rating-Change Alerts?
FRPT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -1.87%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE
2026-10-30O $67.27H $68.36L $66.12C $66.12VOL 1.13M
RES: $68.60SUP: $58.58SMA50: $65.22SMA200: $63.84
PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK
FRPT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure
Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)
Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).
Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)
16.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth
vs. +13.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).
Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)
No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FRPT today. View full Setup Ledger →
🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections
Open Graph →
No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FRPT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.
AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video
🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FRPT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →
DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK
📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FRPT)
Consumer Staples Rank #34 of 146
⚔️ MZTI vs FRPT Full Matrix →
1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (FRPT vs. MZTI, POST, UTZ, NOMD)
Industry: Packaged Foods (41 Tracked Issuers)Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Freshpet Inc. (FRPT) ranks #34 by composite RQD confidence (64/100, grade C) and #48 by equity capitalization ($3.18B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, POST leads on earnings valuation at 10.7x trailing P/E, while MZTI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 20.9% ROIC and 23.9% gross margin. MZTI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 76/100 (B+) compared with FRPT at 64/100 (C).
| Ticker / Company | Roarable Grade | RQD Score | Trailing P/E | Gross Margin | ROIC | 1D Change | Market Cap | Head-to-Head |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FRPT
ACTIVE
Freshpet Inc. | C | 64/100 | 22.8x | 40.8% | 6.4% | +1.63% | $3.18B | Benchmark Subject |
| MZTI The Marzetti Company | B+ | 76/100 | 17.8x | 23.9% | 20.9% | +0.66% | $2.98B | /mzti-vs-frpt → |
| POST Post Holdings Inc. | D+ | 57/100 | 10.7x | 28.7% | 5.9% | +1.71% | $3.59B | /post-vs-frpt → |
| UTZ Utz Brands Inc (Class A) | D | 50/100 | — | 24.9% | 1.1% | -0.07% | $2.06B | /utz-vs-frpt → |
| NOMD Nomad Foods Limited | C- | 61/100 | — | — | — | +1.02% | $1.69B | /nomd-vs-frpt → |
2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)
SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001611647In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Freshpet Inc. (FRPT) reported GAAP revenue of $1.10B (+13.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $975.2M , and +43.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $139.1M, operating cash flow of $160.6M, and free cash flow of $160.6M (+4.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, FRPT closed FY2025 with $1.78B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.24, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).
| Fiscal Period | Filing Date | Revenue | Net Income | Operating Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | Total Assets | Total Debt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FY2025 (FY) | 2025-12-31 | $1.10B | $139.1M | $160.6M | $160.6M | $1.78B | — |
| FY2024 (FY) | 2024-12-31 | $975.2M | $46.9M | $154.3M | $154.3M | $1.57B | — |
| FY2023 (FY) | 2023-12-31 | $766.9M | -$33.6M | $75.9M | $75.9M | — | — |
3. FRPT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)
✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLEDIs FRPT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?
As of 2026-11-01, Freshpet Inc. (NASDAQ: FRPT) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $66.12 (+1.63% 1D, market cap $3.18B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, FRPT ranks #34 in composite RQD confidence.
How does FRPT compare to MZTI and POST in the Consumer Staples sector?
Within the Consumer Staples sector (Packaged Foods), FRPT carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 22.8x, gross margin of 40.8%, and ROIC of 6.4%. By comparison, MZTI (The Marzetti Company) holds a B+ grade (76/100 RQD, P/E 17.8x, ROIC 20.9%, cap $2.98B) and POST (Post Holdings Inc.) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 10.7x, ROIC 5.9%, cap $3.59B). Among the 5-stock peer group, POST leads on earnings multiple (10.7x) while MZTI leads on capital efficiency (20.9% ROIC).
What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FRPT?
Per FRPT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001611647), Freshpet Inc. generated $1.10B in revenue (+13.0% YoY), $139.1M in net income, and $160.6M in free cash flow against $1.78B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.
Where is FRPT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?
FRPT last traded at $66.12 (+1.63% on volume of 847,070 shares), positioning the stock +1.38% above its 50-day simple moving average ($65.22) and +3.57% above its 200-day simple moving average ($63.84). Across its 52-week range of $46.45 to $86.00, FRPT sits at the 49.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 58.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.1% ($60.76 to $71.48).
FRPT Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index
100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FREDWhy is FRPT stock moving today?
Why FRPT Stock advanced +1.63% Today — RQD Quant Desk Flash. Solid 41% profit margin (6% return on capital), mixed timing at 23x P/E—hold if owned, no rush to chase.