Stock Ratings / Consumer Staples / FRPT / financials

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Freshpet Inc. (FRPT) Revenue-to-Profit Sankey Flow & SEC XBRL Financials

$66.12 +1.63% NASDAQ • Live Quote vs Prior Daily Close (Synced Snapshot) EXT / AFTER-HRS: $66.19

Freshpet Inc. (FRPT) carries a Roarable Rating of C (Hold) with 64/100 RQD Confidence. The composite score sits in the neutral Hold band (59–69), meaning current holders don’t need to panic-sell while prospective buyers can wait for a move into the 70+ Buy zone.

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY) →

ROARABLE C • HOLD / WATCH Cap $3.18B

📤 Share Live RQD Speedometer Card: 𝕏 Post Reddit StockTwits ⬇ Live SVG Card

INTERACTIVE SCENARIO DECK:

🛡️ Portfolio Crash X-Ray

EXT / AFTER-HRS: $66.19 (+0.10%)🧬 Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)⚙️ Cash Engine: 12/20 (C-) • 14.6% FCF Margin

Verify 90D Bucket Audit →

📊 Historical Track Record: Scores of 64/100 (C) historically posted market-perform odds over rolling 90-day windows (+1.1% avg 90D alpha vs SPY • 55.2% hit rate — wait for RQD ≥ 70 breakout).

Audit Bucket Track Record →

RQD QUANT TACHOMETERHOLD / WATCH • C

JEV AI Jury Split (Battleground)

Cash

SEC

Whale

Impersonal quantitative research (0–100 RQD rubric) — not individualized investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Full Disclaimer

5-PILLAR SNOWFLAKE RADARRw C- · Rk B-

Each axis scored 0–20

12M PRICE TARGET CONE+2.7% Base Target

WHALE OPTIONS SNAPSHOT: — (No Active Options Snapshot on file for FRPT)Realized 20D OHLCV Swing Band: ±8.1%

Deterministic 5-Pillar Attribution (64/100 Composite)

🔍 WHY FRPT SCORES 64/100 (C) — TOP 3 DRIVERS2 Bullish Pillars + #1 Risk Drag

▲ #1 Bullish Driver: SEC 10-K Forensic Risk+16/20 pts (25% of score)

Altman Z-Score 4.24 (FORTRESS SAFE (>3.0)) • Piotroski F-Score 8/9

▲ #2 Bullish Driver: Insider Conviction & Share Dilution+15/20 pts (23% of score)

SEC Form 4 / 13F Thermometer: 75% Net Buy • Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares)

▼ #1 Drag / Risk Factor: Whale & Options Positioning9/20 pts (-11 pt drag)

Put hedging (50% put share) caps near-term gamma upside (-11 pts vs max)

📈 PAST 4 QUARTERS RQD vs SUBSEQUENT RETURNQ1 → Q2 → Q3 → Current

Q1 (-3Q)

Grade C$64.07+4% Next Q

Q2 (-2Q)

Grade C$66.63-3.8% Next Q

Q3 (-1Q)

Grade C$64.12+3.1% Next Q

Current

Grade C$66.12+1.1% Hist 90D α

Trajectory: C (56) → C (64)Full Audit →

⚔️ ADVERSARIAL OPPOSING CASE & FORENSIC KILL-SWITCH (WHY THE BULL/BEAR THESIS COULD FAIL)GIDEON ASHMERE // FORENSIC SHORT & KILL-SWITCH DOSSIER

⚔️ Adversarial Opposing Case: Why the FRPT Bull Thesis Could Fail

Gideon Ashmere Forensic Desk →

Even with a 64/100 (C) score, FRPT faces multiple-compression risk if 22.8x trailing P/E re-rate toward historical sector medians or if hyperscaler/enterprise customer concentration slows in upcoming 10-Q filings.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #1

Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #2

Dilution & Margin Drag: Cannibal Buyback (-2.08% YoY Shares) — any gross margin slip below 38.3% triggers an automatic RQD downgrade.

⚠️ Forensic Kill-Switch #3

Technical & Forensic Kill-Switch: A daily close below the 50D SMA ($65.22) or 200D SMA ($63.84) invalidates the momentum regime and cuts Target Base ($67.91) toward Bear Floor ($52.97).

🎲 LIVE PREDICTION MARKET ODDS TIED TO $FRPT• $2.4M Crowd Pool • Kalshi / Polymarket Composite

Contract: “FRPT Beats Next Quarter EPS Consensus (Dec 30, 2026) & Holds Above 200D SMA”

YES 64%NO 36%Trade / Inspect Odds →

VISUAL REVENUE-TO-PROFIT SANKEY WATERFALL • FY 2025 (10-K)

How FRPT Turns Every Dollar of Sales Into Real Bottom-Line Profit

Free Cash Flow:$160.6M (14.6% FCF Margin)

Multi-Year SEC EDGAR XBRL Revenue, Net Profit & Free Cash Flow Trajectory

■ Revenue■ Net Profit■ Free Cash Flow

FY23

Rev $766.9M

FY24

Rev $975.2M

FY25

Rev $1.10B

Fiscal Year	Revenue	Gross Margin	Op Margin	Net Profit	Free Cash Flow	ROIC %
FY 2025	$1.10B	40.8%	6.9%	$139.1M	$160.6M	6.4%
FY 2024	$975.2M	40.6%	3.9%	$46.9M	$154.3M	3.8%
FY 2023	$766.9M	40.8%	-4%	-$33.6M	$75.9M	6.4%

ON-DEMAND RQD QUANT WORKSHOP • SPONSORED / PARTNER SPOTLIGHTHosted by Perry Belcher & Roarable Forensic Quant Desk

Red-Light Warning Desk: Spotting SEC Cash-Flow & Dilution Risks Before Downgrades (Featuring FRPT)

✓Walkthrough of FRPT's RQD Radar, SEC cash-conversion gap & downside invalidation levels
✓3 asymmetric Bear/Hedge frameworks when 10-year Treasury yields stay elevated
✓Includes nightly RQD rating-change & forensic signal email alerts on your tracked stocks

RQD INSIDER CLUB WAITLIST$49/YR PLANNED

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FRPT // CANDLESTICK & AUTO-TRENDLINE WORKSTATION6M: -1.87%⚡ TESTING RESISTANCE

2026-10-30O $67.27H $68.36L $66.12C $66.12VOL 1.13M

RES: $68.60SUP: $58.58SMA50: $65.22SMA200: $63.84

PRIMARY-SOURCE FORENSICS, SECOND-ORDER LINKS & AI ANALYST DESK

FRPT Dilution Monitor, Expectations Hurdle, Butterfly Connections & Policy Exposure

🦋 FRPT Butterfly Map → + Track FRPT →

Share Count & Dilution Monitor (#25)

Multi-year comparable XBRL diluted share count not disclosed (ETF or recent listing).

Reverse-DCF Expectations Hurdle (#30)

16.5%/yr Implied 5Y Growth

vs. +13.0% actual YoY revenue growth (assuming 9.25% cost of equity & 16.5x terminal multiple).

Ellis Vennor Setup Ledger (#33)

No active Ellis Vennor swing setup published on FRPT today. View full Setup Ledger →

🦋 Documented & Second-Order Butterfly Connections Open Graph →

No direct multi-tier Butterfly edges indexed yet for FRPT. Explore sector supply chains on /butterfly.

AI Analyst Theses, Washington Policy & Company Video

🎬 No recent verified company-specific video clip queued for FRPT today (we never pad ticker pages with unrelated generic clips). Browse Macro Video Desk →

DETERMINISTIC MULTI-FACTOR EQUITY AUDIT • SEC EDGAR XBRL × RQD PEER BENCHMARK

📊 Quantitative Sector Peer Comparison, SEC Filing Delta & Investment FAQ (FRPT)

Consumer Staples Rank #34 of 146 ⚔️ MZTI vs FRPT Full Matrix →

1. Head-to-Head Consumer Staples Peer Comparison (FRPT vs. MZTI, POST, UTZ, NOMD)

Industry: Packaged Foods (41 Tracked Issuers)

Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples securities in the Roarable RQD universe, Freshpet Inc. (FRPT) ranks #34 by composite RQD confidence (64/100, grade C) and #48 by equity capitalization ($3.18B). Within this direct 5-issuer industry benchmark cohort, POST leads on earnings valuation at 10.7x trailing P/E, while MZTI leads on capital efficiency and profitability with 20.9% ROIC and 23.9% gross margin. MZTI currently holds the highest overall quantitative score in the immediate peer group at 76/100 (B+) compared with FRPT at 64/100 (C).

Ticker / Company	Roarable Grade	RQD Score	Trailing P/E	Gross Margin	ROIC	1D Change	Market Cap	Head-to-Head
FRPT ACTIVE Freshpet Inc.	C	64/100	22.8x	40.8%	6.4%	+1.63%	$3.18B	Benchmark Subject
MZTI The Marzetti Company	B+	76/100	17.8x	23.9%	20.9%	+0.66%	$2.98B	/mzti-vs-frpt →
POST Post Holdings Inc.	D+	57/100	10.7x	28.7%	5.9%	+1.71%	$3.59B	/post-vs-frpt →
UTZ Utz Brands Inc (Class A)	D	50/100	—	24.9%	1.1%	-0.07%	$2.06B	/utz-vs-frpt →
NOMD Nomad Foods Limited	C-	61/100	—	—	—	+1.02%	$1.69B	/nomd-vs-frpt →

2. Multi-Year SEC XBRL Revenue, Cash Flow & Balance-Sheet Trajectory (FY2023–FY2025)

SEC EDGAR 10-K • FILED 2025-12-31 • CIK 0001611647

In its most recent audited fiscal period (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31), Freshpet Inc. (FRPT) reported GAAP revenue of $1.10B (+13.0% vs. FY2024 revenue of $975.2M , and +43.7% cumulative change since FY2023) , GAAP net income of $139.1M, operating cash flow of $160.6M, and free cash flow of $160.6M (+4.1% YoY). On the balance sheet, FRPT closed FY2025 with $1.78B in total assets against $0 in total debt (Altman Z-Score: 4.24, Piotroski F-Score: 8/9).

Fiscal Period	Filing Date	Revenue	Net Income	Operating Cash Flow	Free Cash Flow	Total Assets	Total Debt
FY2025 (FY)	2025-12-31	$1.10B	$139.1M	$160.6M	$160.6M	$1.78B	—
FY2024 (FY)	2024-12-31	$975.2M	$46.9M	$154.3M	$154.3M	$1.57B	—
FY2023 (FY)	2023-12-31	$766.9M	-$33.6M	$75.9M	$75.9M	—	—

3. FRPT Data-Verified Investor FAQ (RQD Rating, Sector Peers, SEC Forensics & Technicals)

✓ SCHEMA.ORG FAQPAGE JSON-LD ENABLED

Is FRPT stock a Buy, Hold, or Sell right now according to Roarable's RQD model?

As of 2026-11-01, Freshpet Inc. (NASDAQ: FRPT) is rated C (Hold / HOLD) by Roarable's 5-pillar RQD engine with a composite confidence score of 64/100 at a spot price of $66.12 (+1.63% 1D, market cap $3.18B). Pillar breakdown: Fundamental Cash Engine 12/20, Institutional 13F & Options Flow 9/20, Executive Insider Alignment 16/20, FRED Macro Regime Fit 12/20, and SEC Balance-Sheet Forensics 15/20. Across 146 tracked Consumer Staples issuers, FRPT ranks #34 in composite RQD confidence.

How does FRPT compare to MZTI and POST in the Consumer Staples sector?

Within the Consumer Staples sector (Packaged Foods), FRPT carries a Roarable C (64/100 RQD), trailing P/E of 22.8x, gross margin of 40.8%, and ROIC of 6.4%. By comparison, MZTI (The Marzetti Company) holds a B+ grade (76/100 RQD, P/E 17.8x, ROIC 20.9%, cap $2.98B) and POST (Post Holdings Inc.) posts a D+ grade (57/100 RQD, P/E 10.7x, ROIC 5.9%, cap $3.59B). Among the 5-stock peer group, POST leads on earnings multiple (10.7x) while MZTI leads on capital efficiency (20.9% ROIC).

What are the biggest fundamental strengths and SEC risk factors for FRPT?

Per FRPT's SEC EDGAR XBRL 10-K filing (FY2025, filed 2025-12-31, CIK 0001611647), Freshpet Inc. generated $1.10B in revenue (+13.0% YoY), $139.1M in net income, and $160.6M in free cash flow against $1.78B in total assets and $0 in total debt. Key quantitative strengths: Company leadership has skin in the game with net positive insider conviction.. Primary risk factors monitored: Broader market pullbacks can still drag down strong stocks in the short run.. Institutional options positioning shows a 50% call / 50% put premium split.

Where is FRPT trading relative to its 50-day, 200-day, and 52-week technical levels?

FRPT last traded at $66.12 (+1.63% on volume of 847,070 shares), positioning the stock +1.38% above its 50-day simple moving average ($65.22) and +3.57% above its 200-day simple moving average ($63.84). Across its 52-week range of $46.45 to $86.00, FRPT sits at the 49.7% percentile with a 14-day RSI of 58.4 (BULLISH MOMENTUM) and an implied next-earnings move of ±8.1% ($60.76 to $71.48).

FRPT Investor FAQ & Complete 8-Part Research Index

100% OPEN ACCESS • SEC EDGAR × CBOE × FRED

How profitable is Freshpet Inc. (FRPT)?

In FY 2025 (10-K), FRPT converted $1.1B of revenue into a 40.8% gross margin, 6.9% operating margin, and $160.6M in free cash flow (14.6% FCF margin).

Direct Sub-Reports: FRPT RQD Cockpit FRPT 12M Forecast FRPT Earnings & Move FRPT Dividends & DRIP FRPT Insiders & 13F FRPT Whale Options FRPT Profit Sankey FRPT News & Why